Why the Google Antitrust Ruling Could Deal a Blow to Apple's Profits

Thu, Aug 14, 2025, 7:30 AM 5 min read

• Apple stock is surging on tariff-related news right now, but an upcoming legal ruling could bode badly for the "Magnificent Seven" company.

• This month, Apple could lose an important source of revenue from the fallout of the ruling.

• The potential revenue loss likely isn't factored into Apple's current valuation.

• 10 stocks we like better than Apple ›

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares have been trending higher lately due to news that has assuaged investor concerns about the impact of recent tariff hikes on profitability. However, there's another possible risk to Apple's future profitability that few are talking about: the Google antitrust ruling.

Make no mistake: The judge's ruling could negatively affect Google's search market dominance. In turn, this could be bad news for shares in Google's parent company, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL). Then again, at least for Alphabet, alongside these potential negative consequences is the potential for the judge's decision to serve as a catalyst for Alphabet stock in the coming years.

Unfortunately, there's no such silver lining for Apple. Instead, the iPhone maker faces the prospect of losing some or all of a key revenue source. Following the judge's decision, if this risk becomes more apparent, it could lead to a new round of volatility for Apple stock.

Back in 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a civil suit against Alphabet's Google subsidiary. The suit alleged that some of Google's practices, such as search engine exclusivity agreements with device makers such as Apple, were monopolistic and anticompetitive.

This suit, known as United States v. Google LLC (2020), went to trial in September 2023, and in August 2024, Judge Amit Mehta ruled in the DOJ's favor. Post-verdict, both the DOJ and Google submitted proposed remedies to address Google's practices deemed anticompetitive. These proposals were presented in a separate remedies case held last spring.

The DOJ's proposal called for some pretty severe remedies, including an end to Google's search exclusivity deal with Apple, as well as divestitures of Google's Chrome browser and Android mobile operating system businesses.

Google, on the other hand, has proposed milder remedies. For instance, changes such as allowing customers to choose whether to make Google the default search engine on a device. This month, Judge Mehta is expected to issue his final ruling on the remedies. If he rules in favor of a search exclusivity ban, such news could lead to a big drop in Apple's annual earnings.