What to Know Ahead of the Trump-Putin Summit

Trump and Putin meet today in Alaska to discuss the future of the Ukraine war. Not present: anyone from Ukraine.

The facts are not in flux. The battle lines have barely shifted over the last few years. The objectives of Russia and Ukraine haven’t changed, either.

And yet anything could happen — because nobody knows what Trump will do. In the last seven months, his positions on the war have swung wildly. He humiliated the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office. Then he questioned Putin’s honesty and threatened to place harsher sanctions on Moscow; he seemed to have changed his tune.

Then last week, Trump abruptly gave the Russian president his long-desired one-on-one meeting — and left Zelensky off the guest list. Ukraine and its European allies fear that Trump will cut a deal with Putin.

What should we expect from today’s meeting? David Sanger, a White House and national security reporter, explains some possibilities:

• A cease-fire. Ukraine and Europe say this must precede negotiations. Putin has resisted.

• Land swaps. Trump and Putin may try to redraw Ukraine’s borders, solidifying some of Russia’s battlefield gains. Ukraine strongly opposes this idea.

• Security guarantees. A deal could include a promise that Western nations will protect Ukraine from future Russian aggression.

• NATO repudiation. The alliance says Ukraine can join eventually. Putin would prefer never, and Trump appears sympathetic to his view.

• A grand bargain. Putin is bringing a business delegation, possibly to talk about access to minerals. He also mentioned a possible replacement for the New START nuclear treaty.

What to know

It’s hard to remember the important milestones on the road to Alaska. Here are some ways to understand the war:

Who’s winning? It’s not quite a stalemate. Russia has captured large tracts of Ukraine — but not nearly as much as Putin wants. After Ukraine decimated Russia’s underequipped forces in 2022, the Russian president re-engineered his country to serve the war. Russia has paid huge sums to recruit new soldiers and invested heavily in Iranian-designed drones. Putin has been willing to sacrifice his own soldiers, incurring about twice as many casualties as Ukraine. This multimedia story by Times journalists in Europe shows how the grinding war of attrition favors Russia.