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What Analysts Think of Target Stock Ahead of Earnings

Aaron McDade

Mon, May 19, 2025, 12:42 PM 2 min read

Target is set to report first-quarter results before the opening bell Wednesday, with analysts moderately bullish on the retailer's stock.
Comparable store sales are expected to have fallen 1.5% year-over-year, though some analysts have warned that the metric could have declined 4%.
Some analysts see Target lowering its full-year forecasts amid uncertainty around tariffs and the expected drop in comparable store sales.

Target (TGT) is slated to post first-quarter results before the bell on Wednesday, with analysts cautiously optimistic about the retailer's stock.

Eight of the 13 analysts who cover Target and are tracked by Visible Alpha call the stock a "hold," with the other five rating the retailer as a "buy." The stock, which has lost more than a quarter of its value this year, has an average price target of $117.54, suggesting upside of nearly 20% from its closing level Friday.

Target is expected to report Q1 earnings per share of $1.64 on revenue that edged lower to $24.41 billion. Comparable store sales are expected to have fallen 1.5%, though some analysts have warned that the metric could have declined 4%.

Last quarter, Target reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results but warned that tariffs and worsening consumer sentiment were likely to affect its future performance.

In a note leading up to the retailer's report, JPMorgan analysts wrote that they believe Target is likely to lower its full-year sales and profit forecasts, but said they "remain on the positive side of the company's long-term relevance to the consumer."

Morgan Stanley analysts also expect lowered guidance, as "sales have likely decelerated further YTD, due to a combination of weaker consumer sentiment, overall slowdown in discretionary categories (to which TGT overindexes, compared to its broadline peers), and TGT-specific execution challenges."

Despite the near-term weakness, Oppenheimer said they "would take advantage of any dips" as they remain bullish on Target's long-term trajectory. UBS analysts, meanwhile, said that Target "needs to stabilize its market share, define its positioning in the market, demonstrate the sustainability of its profitability, and showcase its ability to harvest suitable returns."