JPMorgan’s Dimon sees 'extraordinary amount of complacency' as markets recover from tariff shock

Mon, May 19, 2025, 12:35 PM 5 min read

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that he sees an "extraordinary amount of complacency" in markets after investors clawed back their "Liberation Day" losses, emphasizing that the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation are still higher than people think.

"The market came down 10%, back up 10%," he said. "I think that's an extraordinary amount of complacency."

The boss of the nation's largest bank discussed everything from President Trump's tariffs and the state of the US economy to the future of the banking industry and his thoughts on crypto during JPMorgan's annual Investor Day event in Manhattan.

On one subject Dimon didn't give a firm answer: When he plans to retire as CEO.

When asked why he wouldn't stay another decade, he did remind investors he plans to remain as executive chairman of JPMorgan’s board for a time after stepping down from his CEO role.

"Obviously, it's up to the board. If I'm here for four more years and maybe two more, three as executive chair. That's a long time. That's like a lot of the present value of the world."

The 69-year old first alluded that his time as boss of JPMorgan was winding down at last year's Investor Day event, when he acknowledged that he would likely be leaving his role in "less than five years." This past January he said his "base case" was to stay for another few years.

When one analyst pressed him for a more specific timetable, he said Monday that "the intent is the same as we said last year."

His comments were much more pointed when discussing macro economic topics. He argued that the full effect of the tariffs from the Trump administration is not yet apparent, and that even at their current levels the duties are "pretty extreme."

President Trump has paused many higher duties on countries around the world, including China, as his team negotiates trade deals, but a baseline reciprocal tariff of 10% remains in place across the board, in addition to duties that are specific to certain industries.

Trade has created a lot of risk, he said, and noted that the chance of inflation going up and stagflation are higher than people think. The odds of stagflation — which refers to a recession with higher inflation — "are probably two times" what the market expects, he added.

Geopolitical risk is also a concern. It "is very, very, very high. How it plays out over the next several years. We don't know," Dimon said.