Wary of tariff-related price hikes? Here's what to buy this summer, experts say

Sales usually follow a predictable pattern: As summer kicks into high gear, Amazon Prime Day treats us to slashed prices on a little bit of everything. Then there are back-to-school and Labor Day deals on clothing and all things outdoors. Before you know it, Black Friday and Cyber Monday (and these days, the entire month of November) bring a holiday shopping bonanza of tech, toys and everything in-between.

Cue the record scratch: Tariffs mean today's shopping landscape is anything but business as usual. As of mid-June, taxes on imported goods hit their highest overall effective rate (15.6%) since 1937, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University. Pinpointing the effect they're having is a tricky business, so we turned to shopping and supply-chain pros for insight and advice on clothing, shoes, tech, toys, furniture, appliances, and beauty and household essentials.

Tariffs 101: Where we are now

The good news: Prices haven't jumped significantly since President Trump's early April "Liberation Day," when he announced a slew of tariffs on major U.S. trade partners. The bad news: That doesn't mean they won't in the near future. Retailers have kept prices steady on pre-tariff inventory, says Rick Kowalski, senior director of business intelligence for the Consumer Technology Association, one of the nation's largest trade groups. "As time progresses, it will be more evident that tariffs are impacting more," he says.

One wild card is the reciprocal tariffs that were announced in April but paused for 90 days. If they come to pass, they'll target over 180 nations. Another is the back-and-forth with China, taxed at an effective rate of 27.9%, according to Yale's Budget Lab. "Imports from China are bearing the brunt of these changes and remain the most uncertain," says Josh Fischer, vice president of product management at Cin7, an inventory-tracking software firm. "That's putting pressure on key industries."

What to buy now, according to experts

Feeling antsy to buy now? You're not alone. For shoppers, "uncertainty is the dominant emotion," says Deidre Popovich, associate professor of marketing and supply chain management at Texas Tech University. "Even the possibility of future tariff hikes on top categories, along with the confusing back-and-forth trade negotiations, triggers anticipatory scarcity behaviors like stockpiling."

As always, stay tuned to the headlines — but in the meantime, here are some items that it could be wise to buy before fall rolls around.

Clothing and accessories

"Materials like nylon and polyester, commonly sourced in Asia, are getting more expensive," says Stephanie Carls, RetailMeNot's retail insights expert. "That affects trend-driven and lower-cost fashion first." So all those affordable garments that most of us snap up in an effort to save money? They're getting a wee bit less affordable, and no wonder — about 98% of clothing sold in the U.S. is imported, according to the U.S. Fashion Industry Association.

Still, it's not just no-name brands that are feeling the squeeze. Ralph Lauren has already said it's exploring price bumps and cutting down on deals to compensate for tariffs, while Lululemon has pledged "strategic price increases ... on a small portion of our assortment" as shoppers pull back on spending at North American stores.

Popovich expects "a stronger than usual push" from retailers to sell clothing this summer and back-to-school season. That means shoppers can expect widespread sales and steep discounts from now through early to mid-August. After that, prices could start to creep up as "tariff exposure intensifies," she says.

Favorites to consider buying now:

Shoes

"Athletic footwear, and less expensive footwear items like slippers and slides" are especially vulnerable to tariff-related price hikes, says Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at market research firm Circana. Much like clothing, most shoes in these categories are imported from Asia.

What's more, big brands are in the crosshairs, experts caution. "Despite having a diversified global supply chain, Nike still sources many components from China," Fischer says. "They've signaled potential price increases and ongoing supply chain shifts to offset cost pressures. We'll likely see $5 or $10 increases in their products." Adidas and Birkenstock have warned that prices will go up. And favorites including Hoka, Skechers and Crocs are overwhelmingly made in China or Vietnam, according to a Yahoo Finance visualization of data from the companies and investment firm Stifel.

Favorites to consider buying now:

Tech and toys

Our favorite gadgets and gizmos are still overwhelmingly made in Asia. China accounts for 79% of U.S. laptop and tablet imports and 78% of smartphone imports, according to the Consumer Technology Association.

CTA's Kowalski says it "might be wiser to shop sooner rather than later" when it comes to tech, and that he's already starting to see prices rise on audio, video and gaming products. Tariffs that affect computers and smartphones are paused at the moment, he notes, but proposed semiconductor tariffs have the potential to raise prices there too.

"The electronics supply chain is global in nature," Kowalski says. "Some countries have particular strengths, and that's what makes it efficient. Bring that all home, and it becomes very expensive. Long term, it's very difficult to bring back tech manufacturing."

If you have kids or grandkids on your shopping list, take note: Asia is also a manufacturing hub for the toy industry. "While not always top of mind outside the holiday season, toys are another category facing rising prices," Carls says. "Many are manufactured in China and previously avoided tariffs, but now they are fully exposed." Toy giants Mattel and Hasbro have already said prices are likely to rise.

Favorites to consider buying now:

Furniture and appliances

Carls says small appliances and furniture are particularly vulnerable to tariffs. "If it plugs in and fits on your counter (air fryers, espresso machines, blenders), it's likely made overseas — and prices are climbing," she says. Cohen agrees, saying small appliances are affected by "product distribution issues and have already seen some price increases." Massachusetts-based SharkNinja makes most of its products in China, CNBC reports. Similarly, Keurig Dr. Pepper has said that 88% of U.S.-sold coffee brewers come from China.

As for furniture, "entry-level and midrange pieces, especially wood and upholstered options, are seeing higher costs due to tariffs on materials and production," Carls says. China, Vietnam and Mexico lead the way here in imports, and the industry is already seeing a notable uptick in prices, the Washington Post reports. Swedish furniture giant IKEA is among retailers that have been "quietly raising prices due to material and import cost hikes," Popovich adds.

Favorites to consider buying now:

Beauty and household essentials

In general, experts say it's wise for shoppers not to worry too much about day-to-day essentials. "While you shouldn't rush to stock up on daily items, you should start thinking about big-ticket purchases," like couches or cars, Fischer says.

While certain groceries have seen prices jump, that's been largely unrelated to tariffs, Grocery Dive reports. Still, that doesn't mean toilet paper or your favorite moisturizer will remain unscathed. Products like toiletries and paper goods could see ingredient and raw-material costs rise, even if they're made in the U.S. For instance, Procter & Gamble, the megacorporation behind brands like Tide, Crest, Bounty, Charmin, Olay and Pantene, has said shoppers could pay more for some products as soon as July. Carls also calls out beauty and grooming tools like electric toothbrushes and hair dryers, which "are often made abroad and now fall under tariffed categories."

The stores that shoppers depend on for affordable everyday buys are also feeling the heat from tariffs. Walmart said in May that "the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb" and that its shoppers would likely start seeing higher prices within the month.

Favorites to consider buying now: