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UFC 319 predictions, odds, full-card preview: Is Dricus du Plessis the man to beat Khamzat Chimaev?

Isn't it crazy that's our big question ahead of UFC 319? Normally, with a champ who's unbeaten in the UFC, we're wondering whether the latest challenger is the one to finally stop him.

Not this time. That's how impressive Khamzat Chimaev has been in his career.

Chimaev's massive moment of truth will close out the UFC's return to Chicago on Saturday, when he challenges reigning middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis. The South African champ will pursue his third straight title defense, which would extend his own impressive winning streak to a dozen fights. Additionally, a win over Chimaev would be about as great a catalyst as possible to start having serious conversations about the South African's all-timer status at middleweight.

The co-main event also serves as a highly anticipated affair, with the arrival of longtime featherweight super prospect Aaron Pico. From one undefeated top UFC contender to the next, Pico went from initially being slated to debut against Movsar Evloev at UFC Abu Dhabi to now facing England's Lerone Murphy.

A lot of trudging through murky waters has to be done in the 2025 UFC landscape. (Take the last two weekends, for example.) But when everything lines up just right, can't-miss matchups still occur, and that's the definition of UFC 319's main event. Overall, this card is a certified banger, even after the last-minute hits. The lack of another title fight might be all it took to prevent a perfect score.

👑 UFC 319's lineup Crown grade: A- 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

185 pounds: (C) Dricus du Plessis (+200) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-250)

Title fights at the highest level of combat sports don't get much better than this, folks. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object, with several questions that remain unanswered — until the Octagon door closes Saturday night.

Almost immediately upon arrival in the UFC, Chimaev felt like a champion without a crown. In terms of performances, he's been a dominant force, with strength and technique to such degrees that I've never seen displayed in MMA. An image that has been forever burned into my mind is the sequence against Kevin Holland, where Holland attempted to Granby roll his way out of Chimaev's body lock, only to be flipped upside down, unable to break the hold — which Chimaev maintained with one arm.

Sure, this came against Holland, who is far from an elite grappler. But you just don't see that level of technical strength anywhere.

That's just one example of Chimaev's remarkable abilities, as he has achieved even more impressive feats against the likes of former champions Robert Whittaker and Kamaru Usman. Chimaev is the Hulk of MMA grappling. Despite that, he has shown sound striking skills in his epic war with Gilbert Burns, as well as knockouts of Gerald Meerschaert and Ikram Aliskerov. It's a boxing-heavy approach from "Borz" on the feet, but he wants to slaughter every foe on the ground.

In the champion du Plessis, we have a dude who is perpetually written off, and it's happening again here as he's the underdog. But how could he not be in this case?

(L-R) Opponents Dricus Du Plessis of South Africa and Khamzat Chimaev of Russia pose on stage during the UFC 319 press conference at Radius Chicago on August 14, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC)

Du Plessis has already established himself as an all-time great middleweight who keeps climbing that ladder. His signature ultra-awkward and wild striking has disrupted everyone put in front of him in the UFC. Accompany that with next-level grit and determination and you can see why "DDP" has also been unstoppable — and the edge for him is clearly in those departments, especially if the fight goes long.

The most intriguing aspect of this fight will come on the ground, where Chimaev has won almost all his UFC fights. Du Plessis is a vastly underrated grappler, largely due to his general striking approach in fights. He has demonstrated great offensive wrestling, however, particularly against Darren Till and the aforementioned Whittaker. "StillKnocks" is also no stranger to high-level grappling competitions outside of MMA.

Against Chimaev, the best offensive grappling is defensive, which is what the champion needs to showcase, as the relentless Chechen will waste no time going at him.

I'm fully on board with the legitimacy of both guys at this point, as everyone should be. Despite more questions surrounding Chimaev, the dude has been him on more occasions than one. If anyone can stop him, du Plessis, obviously, has as great a chance as anyone. But until the train slows down for one of the most impressively dominant forces ever witnessed in the sport, it's hard to bet against him.

Pick: Chimaev

145 pounds: Lerone Murphy (+155) vs. Aaron Pico (-190)

Talk about the disrespect for Murphy from the oddsmakers in this one.

This matchup is straightforward to analyze. Let's start with Pico, who was once the talk of the MMA world in the same way Bo Nickal was upon arrival. He's an exceptional wrestler, continuing to develop into a well-rounded MMA fighter. Arguably, Pico has fallen too in love with his striking, which has cost him in losses.

Ultimately, the competition level difference is night and day, with Pico getting thrown into deep water against a surging, undefeated contender like Murphy.

Murphy and Pico strongly contrast each other in their styles, despite being relatively talented in many of the same areas. Pico is much more aggressive, finishing nearly every win, while Murphy is a more patient, tactical "death by 1,000 cuts" type of fighter. For Murphy, Pico's approach should play right into his favor, assuming he stays on his bike as per usual.

It's still hard to say whether this matchmaking will have been a good idea for Pico out of the UFC gate, but that's why it's extra important for him to perform well, even in defeat. This has been the year of former Bellator standouts making the jump to the promotion. It doesn't get much bigger for Pico, other than a title fight. Accompany all of that with an 18-month layoff, and this opportunity is ripe for the Murphy "upset."

Pick: Murphy

170 pounds: Geoff Neal (+190) vs. Carlos Prates (-235)

The Carlos Prates train is trying to get back on the rails with a roadblock named Geoff Neal in its way.

It's been a weird past couple of years for Neal. His last win against Rafael dos Anjos doesn't even feel like it happened. And, realistically, it wasn't much of a fight, as dos Anjos lost in 90 seconds after a knee injury. Although that was caused by Neal, not much happened. Before that, Neal fell short in wars against top contenders Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

The latter was the man to halt Prates' great winning streak when they met in the UFC Kansas City main event inI April. In the long run, the loss could have been the best thing for Prates, as he has already indicated that he learned how to better execute an approach.

Both welterweights know how to lay the leather in devastating order, which provides plenty of excitement for the matchup. Prates chains his combinations together violently, especially against the cage, which was where a lot of damage was dealt and delivered by Neal in his loss to Rakhmonov.

Neal and Prates mirror each other in many ways and have both been supremely durable competitors. It will just come down to who breaks first. I can't help but think it will be Neal, who has already endured more in his career.

Expect Prates to get his wish of becoming the first to knock out Neal in the UFC — or come damn close.

Pick: Prates

185 pounds: Jared Cannonier (+165) vs. Michael Page (-200)

The middleweight career arc of Michael "Venom" Page is fascinating. After an expected one-off against Sharabutdin Magomedov in February, "MVP" appears to have changed his mind by staying away from 170 pounds. Throw in the fact that a win for Page would presumably launch him into Jared Cannonier's No. 9 spot in the official UFC rankings, and this is a big-time matchup.

Many Page fights are fairly straightforward. The man is one of the best strikers on the planet, with his uniquely traditional mash-up style of karate, kung fu and kickboxing. He's a striking wizard, countering like a viper. Cannonier is a tailor-made plodding striker for Page to shine against. The question becomes whether size is an issue for Page in this weight class, given that Cannonier is famously a former heavyweight.

Cannonier's best hope in this fight will be the same as everyone else's against Page: get a hold of him to wrestle, or catch him with a big knockout blow. The latter has proven more difficult than the former, but Cannonier certainly has the power to do it.

I've doubted Page enough throughout the years, and at a point, you've got to come to grips with just how difficult this dude's style is to solve. And despite his age of 38, he's still as quick and sharp as ever.

Pick: Page

125 pounds: Tim Elliott (+240) vs. Kai Asakura (-300)

Speaking of speed, flyweight Kai Asakura was given only glimpses to show what he can dish out when he debuted against champion Alexandre Pantoja last December.

Tim Elliott is a matchup for Asakura that could potentially be problematic, as his tenacious wrestling could lead to a shutdown over 15 minutes. In that case, the fight will not be very exciting, and Asakura would need a finish to secure against any worries of a decision loss.

The former RIZIN champion has been a human highlight reel, devastating foes with kicks and knee strikes. Asakura packs power in his hands as well, but Elliott has had a notoriously solid chin throughout his career. When finished, it's been by submission. However, with that wrestling-heavy approach, he'll need to watch out for Asakura's continually improving pinpoint step-knees to the body. Even against Pantoja, Asakura threatened with flying knees.

Essentially, we're looking at a fight that will see Elliott look to avoid the perpetual danger thrown his way for 15 minutes if he wants to win. These types of fighters are nothing new for Asakura, though.

Pick: Asakura

(L-R) Edson Barboza of Brazil punches Lerone Murphy of England in a featherweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on May 18, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

UFC 319 preliminary notes

Michal Oleksiejczuk has seemingly found his stride since he joined Prates and the Fighting Nerds team. Against Gerald Meerschaert, we're guaranteed a finish because those two are kill or be killed at their core.

Former UFC strawweight champion Jessica Andrade feels like she's got one last-ditch effort here to maintain her roster spot. It's been rough sledding, as she'll ride a two-fight skid into her clash against Lupita Godinez.

Honestly, all of these prelims have something to like, sadly excluding the now-meaningless finals of "The Ultimate Fighter" between Alibi Idiris and Joseph Morales. Somehow, Edson Barboza and Drakkar Klose are buried on UFC 319, in what should be an absurd fight in one way or another for as long as it lasts.

Chicago is getting a good one. This card deserves your full attention from start to finish.

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