NFL picks: An over, a cover, a parlay and multiple player props we like for Sunday

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. A former NFL safety, Bowen predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

With that, let's dive into Week 3.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears total points OVER 50.5 (-115)

The Dallas defense lacks impact players. You can see that on the tape. And I'm looking at a Bears unit that is struggling to find a pass rush, while injuries are already pilling up at the second and third level. Through two weeks, Dallas is allowing 6.4 yards per play (29th in the league), with Chicago checking in at 7.2 (31st), and both defenses are giving up over 30 points per game. Bad football. Dallas will have pass-game matchups to exploit in this one, and I wouldn't be surprised if Caleb Williams posts his best numbers of the season on Sunday at Soldier Field. Take the over. -- Bowen

Philadelphia Eagles to cover -3.5 (Even) vs. Los Angeles Rams

We know the Eagles need to create more explosive plays in the pass game. Through two weeks, Jalen Hurts is completing 75.6% of his throws, but he's averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt. Now, there will be opportunities to scheme versus the Rams' split-safety and Cover 3 zone looks this Sunday, so let's get A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith loose over the top. But I'm still taking the Birds here because of the offensive front and the run game. Remember, Saquon Barkley produced over 200 yards rushing in each of the two matchups versus the Rams last season. Win with the foundational approach on the ground, while increasing the shot play throws for Hurts. That's Eagles football. -- Bowen

Green Bay Packers (ML) at Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ML) vs. New York Jets in two-team parlay (-166)

I see Green Bay and Tampa Bay as locks this week, so let's ensure them in a two-team parlay.

The Packers' pass rush -- with the addition of Micah Parsons -- has generated a pressure rate of 40% (third highest in the league), and they have eight sacks (tied for second most). Plus, they have matchup advantages on the edges versus the Browns' offensive tackles. With Joe Flacco's reduced mobility, this feels like a game where Green Bay dictates from a defensive perspective.

In the Tampa Bay matchup, Justin Fields is out (concussion), so we will see Tyrod Taylor manage the offense. However, Taylor and the Jets need to find an efficient run game, which isn't easy versus the Bucs' defensive front. Through two games, Tampa is allowing only 3.3 YPC, which sets up their pressure packages on third downs. Lean on the Tampa defense here and bet on Baker Mayfield to win the critical moments -- again. -- Bowen

Walder's defensive props

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Why fantasy managers should take a look at Carl Granderson

Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down the IDP fantasy value Carl Granderson can provide for managers.

Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns, to go UNDER 0.5 sacks (+120)

This under opened at -130 but had significant movement to push this all the way to +120. And at that price, I'm fading the superstar edge rusher. Garrett has 3.5 sacks on the season, yes, but he has a very tough matchup in this game. That matchup -- for our purposes -- is not exactly between Garrett and Packers' left tackle Rasheed Walker, but rather between Garrett and Jordan Love. That's because since the beginning of last season Love has just a 3.1% sack rate -- second-lowest only behind Josh Allen. Love simply doesn't go down frequently when he does pass, and it helps the under further the Packers lean run-heavy even accounting for game situation. And it helps the under further that the game situation should be favorable for our bet: the Packers are favored by 7.5 points which means they could get out to a big lead and run the ball. Plus, Walker does matter, too, and he's been solid this season with a 93% pass block win rate that ranks 20th out of 66 qualifying tackles. My model makes the price here -150.

Bryce Huff, DE, San Francisco 49ers, to go OVER 0.5 sacks (+225)

A Huff over sack bet? We are so back. Huff is one of pass rush win rate's original darlings, and someone that was -- I felt -- long underrated while he was on the Jets prior to his 10-sack season in 2023. Then he fell apart with the Eagles in 2024. But now he's reunited with Robert Saleh in San Francisco and the arrow is back pointing up. Huff is putting up a monstrous 28% pass rush win rate through two games this season (for context, Danielle Hunter led the league in pass rush win rate at 27% last season). My sack model, which I think is slightly underrating Huff given his increase in playing time compared to last season, thinks the chances Huff sacks Kyler Murray are better than these odds suggest. It makes the fair price +171.

Other sack bets to consider:

• D.J. Wonnum, OLB, Carolina Panthers over 0.5 sacks (+320)

• T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers under 0.5 sacks (+135)

• K'Lavon Chaisson, OLB, New England Patriots over 0.5 sacks (+225)

• Von Miller, OLB, Washington Commanders over 0.5 sacks (+225)

Zyon McCollum, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to go UNDER 5.5 tackles + assists (-125)

The Jets have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL (negative-17%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was before they lost starting quarterback Justin Fields to a concussion. I have to assume they'll keep their run-heavy ways with Tyrod Taylor under center, and that plays right into our under here. In general, outside corners record tackles on 9% of pass plays, but just 6% of run plays. And all those Jets runs should keep the clock moving, too. My tackle model makes the fair price on this prop -210.

Tre'von Moehrig, S, Carolina Panthers, to go OVER 5.5 tackles + assists (-105)

Move quick. I doubt this price will last. My model, which generally leans toward unders, gives this over a 65% chance of hitting. And the model I used in previous seasons for tackles + assists makes the mean projection for Moehrig in this game 7.8 tackles + assists. And indeed, that's closer to what I see in the rest of the market where there's a line available for Moehrig. Heading into Sunday, Moehrig ranks first in tackle rate (18%!) among all safeties with at least 50 snaps played. We shouldn't overrate a small sample (especially his tackle rate was average at 10% last season), but it's worth something considering he's on a new team this year. I'm running to make this bet.

Other tackle bets to consider:

• Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals under 8.5 tackles + assists (-115)

• Foyesade Oluokun, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars under 8.5 tackles + assists (+110)

• Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 tackles + assists (-140)

• Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants under 6.5 tackles + assists (Even)

Offensive player props

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Why D'Andre Swift is an easy start in fantasy vs. Cowboys

Mike Clay explains why D'Andre Swift is an easy start in fantasy as the Bears take on Cowboys in Week 3.

CeeDee Lamb to go OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-115)

Lamb has topped the 100-yard receiving mark in both games played this season, and the Bears will be without No. 1 corner Jaylon Johnson and slot corner Kyler Gordon due to injuries. Lamb will have matchup advantages from both slot and boundary alignments. And if the Bears do roll with a more zone-heavy script, look for Lamb to find open grass as a catch-and-run target for quarterback Dak Prescott. -- Bowen

George Pickens to score anytime touchdown (+130)

Let's stay with the Chicago-Dallas matchup here and bet on Pickens finding the end zone. Pickens caught his first touchdown of the season in the Week 2 win over the Giants, and he has already seen five end zone targets over his first two games. With his vertical stretch ability, Pickens can get loose on shot-play throws, or the Cowboys can isolate him in the low red zone. Take the bet versus a beat-up Bears secondary. -- Bowen

Tyler Lockett to record 50+ receiving yards (+900)

The start of the season has been so ugly for Lockett that AP Style dictates I still have to spell out his production numbers: four targets, two receptions, nine yards. But while his playing time is down from where it was in Seattle last year, he's still on the field a decent amount. Lockett has run routes on 60% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season. And the target here, 50 receiving yards, is really not asking that much. I get that it was a different situation a year ago, but Lockett hit 50 receiving yards five times last year, and we're now getting +900 for him to do it on Sunday. This line is too pessimistic about the veteran receiver, according to my receiving yards model. It makes the fair price here +405. -- Walder

Cedric Tillman to record 90+ receiving yards (+750)

Tillman is playing a ton, running routes on 92% of Cleveland Browns dropbacks (even slightly more often than Jerry Jeudy). He's running high-value routes, too -- deep crossers and digs that tend to produce higher yards per route run numbers. Granted, Tillman's yards per route run on the increased playing time have not been inspiring (0.8), but considering the playing time he's getting and that the Browns will almost certainly be playing from behind and therefore throwing a fair amount, this is too good of a price to pass up. My model makes this +381. -- Walder

D'Andre Swift to go OVER 2.5 receptions (-125)

We're 3-1 on these bets, and I see no reason why we shouldn't keep it rolling. The premise is simple: when defenses play zone coverage, they allow receptions to running backs almost twice as frequently as when they play man coverage. The theory here is that this isn't fully baked into the betting market, and so we're backing running backs facing zone defenses and fading those facing man defenses. Through two weeks, the defense that stands out in this regard is absolutely the Cowboys; they are playing zone coverage at a massive 86% rate (no team played zone more than 72% over the course of last season). So Swift's reception over is an easy choice in Week 3. -- Walder

TreVeyon Henderson to record 20+ yards receiving (-135)

Against a Steelers defense that is giving up an average of 25.5 yards receiving to running backs, look for Henderson to see targets on screens and unders, while coordinator Josh McDaniels schemes for the rookie on backfield releases to attack linebackers in coverage. Henderson has produced at least 24 yards receiving in both games played this season, so I like this bet to hit on Sunday. -- Bowen

Tyler Warren to go OVER 50.5 yards receiving (-115)

Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen has a dedicated plan for Warren in the route tree. Warren has produced at least 75 yards receiving in each of his first two pro games, with at least seven targets in both. And Steichen is setting Warren up as a multilevel option for quarterback Daniel Jones -- with room to run after the catch. He can rumble in the open field. Take the over in the Week 3 game versus Tennessee. -- Bowen

Joe Flacco to go UNDER 38.5 pass attempts (-110)

I'm breaking out a new model for this category, a relatively simple logistic regression that I'm hoping will let us find some pass attempt values. And a key factor that it considers is NFL Next Gen Stats' pass rate over expectation -- the rate at which teams pass after accounting for situational factors like score, down and distance -- on both offense and defense. And no team has a lower opponent's pass rate over expectation than Green Bay (-18%), which implies that the Packers are likely inducing runs with their personnel and/or alignment. And it's not just a small sample, either; last year under the same defensive coordinator (Jeff Hafley), Green Bay ranked third-lowest in the same category. -- Walder

Trevor Lawrence to go UNDER 0.5 INTs thrown (+115)

I'm actually at -117 here, so this is a decent-sized discrepancy in a market where my model is usually quite close to the betting odds. One obvious reason why we're getting +115 on the under: Lawrence has thrown three picks this season. Picks are fluky, however, and so we really ought to look at the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback through a longer lens. Last season he recorded a 2.2% interception rate, slightly above the 1.9% league average but hardly an outlier. Another factor that stands out here is how run-heavy the Jaguars have been, ranking 25th in pass rate over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats. That limits the number of throws Lawrence will be expected to make and, in turn, reduces the chance of an interception. -- Walder

Others to consider:

• Xavier Legette to record 80+ receiving yards (+1400)