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Thu, Aug 14, 2025, 7:37 AM 2 min read
Producer prices in July rose faster than forecast across the board, giving investors and the Federal Reserve an inflation surprise just over a week out from Fed Chair Jay Powell's crucial Jackson Hole speech.
The Producer Price Index for July showed inflation for businesses rose 0.9% over the prior month in July, well ahead of the 0.2% increase that was forecast data from the BLS showed Thursday. On an annual basis, prices rose 3.3%, the most since February.
"Core" producer prices, which exclude food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.6% last month, the most since March 2022 and an uptick after prices were unchanged in June. On an annual basis, core producer prices rose 3.3%, which was also the most since February.
Stock futures slipped following the release of Thursday's data.
Thursday's data comes two days after the July Consumer Price Index showed inflation pressures were broadly in-line with forecasts, while "core" inflation last month reached a six-month high.
On an annual basis, consumer prices rose 3.1% in July, an increase from 2.9% the prior month and still well ahead of the Fed's 2% inflation target.
Producer prices measure price changes from the perspective of businesses offering or selling goods and services in the economy; consumer prices measure changes from the perspective of those paying for those goods and services.
Thursday's data suggests, then, that companies will not be absorbing the costs of tariffs but will pass these costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Recent labor market data, as well as a growing number of Fed officials arguing for the merits of a rate cut, has seen markets price in a near-certainty that the central bank will begin cutting rates next month.
On Aug. 22, Powell is expected to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where the Fed chair will likely outline his case for the central bank to begin a rate-cutting cycle this fall.
This is breaking news. More to come.
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