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Chris Perkins: Root of Dolphins’ 0-3 start rests in misreading results of 2023 season

MIAMI GARDENS — There are a lot of reasons that this once-promising Miami Dolphins rebuild has turned into such a dumpster fire that they’ve lost 15 of their past 25 games. But the No. 1 reason for the downturn is the Dolphins, led by coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier, badly misread the results of the 2023 season, starting with thinking quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was worthy of a big-time contract extension.

Overrating the 2023 season, a year in which the Dolphins finished 11-6, is why owner Steve Ross should consider a clean sweep — Grier, McDaniel and Tua — when it comes to making changes.

The 2025 Dolphins, such as the 2024 Dolphins, are incomplete and poorly constructed. The Dolphins were so mistakenly pleased by their 2023 season outcome that they bypassed the opportunity to build a complete, well-constructed team such as Kansas City, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Buffalo or San Francisco.

The Dolphins’ hapless 0-3 start this year isn’t about regrettable draft picks, poor free agency decisions, offensive line woes or injuries. It all goes back to misreading the tea leaves from 2023, a misread that played a bigger role in last year’s disappointing 8-9 record than Tua’s injuries.

The Dolphins, due to their 2023 success, erroneously believed they were a high-quality team and they foolishly built off of that belief, reinforcing their themes of speed and finesse. It was a bad miscalculation.

The Dolphins, who went 1-6 against playoff teams in 2023 and 10-0 against non-playoff teams, ignored the evidence that was right in front of their face, evidence that said they were merely a decent team, a team that still needed major strategic and philosophical changes to become a Super Bowl contender.

Misjudging the results of the 2023 season is the main reason 2025 will serve as a long, slow death march for McDaniel. But don’t feel badly for McDaniel, who is now in his fourth season. He brought his 28-28 career record on himself through bad planning and hard-headedness.

Let’s briefly recap the most significant errors following the 2023 season:

— The Dolphins, at McDaniel’s insistence, extended Tua’s contract. That four-year, $212 million deal was a huge mistake. Tua, who should have been forced to play the 2024 season on his fifth-year contract option, can’t stay healthy and he can’t carry an offense. The Dolphins ignored those facts;

— The Dolphins thought their No. 1 offense and No. 10 defense were sustainable. But their high-scoring offense averaged just 16 points per game in seven matchups against fellow playoff teams. And their highly-rated defense allowed 48 points at Buffalo and 56 points at Baltimore. They needed to build a 2024 team that had a stronger run game, a better offensive line, and better depth on defense. They chose to ignore those facts;

— The Dolphins failed to build a more physical team. Their speed was negated in 2023, and their physicality was lacking. The same was true in 2024. It was evident in their 2-10 record against playoff teams in that two-year span. Again, they ignored facts.

Unfortunately, the Dolphins thought they’d made it in 2023. They thought the only things holding them back were injuries and bad luck. It never occurred to them that their team was inadequate.

This is why the main purpose of firing McDaniel midseason wouldn’t be because the Dolphins are hoping for a miraculous turnaround and a playoff run. The main purpose of firing McDaniel midseason would be because it’s obvious that his masterplan, after years of implementation, doesn’t work.

Unfortunately, the Dolphins ignored the fact that the most significant results of 2023 were the 48-20 loss at Buffalo and 56-19 loss at Baltimore. Instead of acknowledging significant changes needed to be made after those losses, the Dolphins made excuses — center Connor Williams was out for the Buffalo game, and numerous defensive starters were out for the Baltimore game.

The Dolphins ignored the facts from the 2023 season. They misread the evidence. They failed to make the necessary changes after the 2023 and 2024 seasons. And now, in 2025, we’re seeing the results of those missteps.