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Betting buzz: Derrick Henry stiff-arms betting public

ESPN

Sep 14, 2025, 09:45 PM ET

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

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Sept. 14: A popular bet to score, Henry held out of end zone

Building off a career year in 2024, and a great start to 2025 with 169 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 1's wild loss to the Buffalo Bills, Derrick Henry appeared to be a very good pick to get into the endzone during Week 2's divisional matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and lowly Cleveland Browns.

ESPN BET closed the superstar running back's anytime touchdown market with -250 odds (an implied probability of 71.4%) and public bettors were more than happy to back him, even at the shortest odds on the board for any player.

The sportsbook says Henry was easily the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer of the day, attracting 38% more wagers than the next closest player in the market, Saquon Barkley. BetMGM and DraftKings similarly report Henry as their largest attractor of ATD tickets. Hard Rock Bet says Henry ATD was more popular than the game's point spread and the second-most popular wager overall on the game with 20% of all bets, behind only Ravens moneyline.

So it was shocking to say the least when King Henry dropped a very rare dud performance on Sunday, racking up 23 yards on 11 carries and, most importantly, no touchdowns in Baltimore's easy 41-17 win over Cleveland.

Besides being a very popular selection for straight bets, Henry ATD was also a fixture of favorites parlays. Hard Rock Bet reports 12.5% of all parlays -- including NFL-only and mixed parlays -- included Henry to score a touchdown, while ESPN BET says that 30% of all same-game parlay users included the wager in their SGPs.

With the very short odds, many bettors opted for different methods of betting on Henry to score, which, of course, ended up not making a difference. All the major sportsbooks report Henry handily attracting the most first touchdown scorer bets, with DraftKings adding that Henry was also the most-bet player to score two touchdowns on Sunday. Henry first touchdown was also the 21st most-bet prop by total bets at ESPN BET on Sunday, one of only two such cases in the top 50.

Joey Feazel, head of football for Caesars Sportsbook, said Henry's off day was one of the few results that went the house's way and kept bettors from enjoying a second straight "huge" Sunday.

"In a day where favorites and overs dominated, the rare Henry off day was the only bright light for the book," Feazel said.

Odds and Ends

One week after unders began the NFL season strong by going 12-4, overs returned with a vengeance in Week 2, going 10-3 through the Sunday late afternoon games. During the 1 p.m. slate, overs went 8-1 in Week 2, almost a complete inverse of the 1-7 they went in the same timeslot a week prior. Three of BetMGM's most-bet totals of the week were overs that cashed, but the most-bet over of the week -- Bills-Jets o47.5 -- actually stayed under.

Favorites went 9-3 straight-up and 7-5 against the spread on Sunday.

"Overall, the combination of favorite wins and high-scoring outcomes made the morning slate a standout session for bettors," Feazel said. "The afternoon games were a push for bettors as the Eagles were popular, but the points didn't arrive. Bettors are 2-0 on the season for Sundays and continuing their tremendous form."

Nineteen entries into the Circa NFL Survivor contest failed to submit their picks ahead of the Week 2 deadline and were eliminated. The survivor contest, run by Las Vegas casino Circa, has a $1,000 buy-in and an $18.7 million prize pool.
The most-popular NFL parlay leg Sunday at Hard Rock Bet was the Dallas Cowboys money-line (-250). In a wild, back-and-forth NFC East battle, the Cowboys got a 64-yard field goal from Brandon Aubrey to force overtime and then a 46-yard game-winner from Aubrey to pull out a 40-37 victory over the Giants.
"Sunday was a little disappointing. We thought we had a big win in the morning with the Giants ... and ended up losing that one in overtime," John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. "That would have been huge for us in terms of knocking out parlays and money line teasers. We had a couple highlights. Seattle winning was a great result here. But ultimately having the Cowboys, Rams, Ravens and Cardinals all win outright combined with so many games going over made it a tough day for us to hold."
Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow left Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars will a toe injury and is expected to miss some time. The Bengals face the Minnesota Vikings next week. The SuperBook had the Vikings listed as 1.5-point favorites over the Bengals in their early looks but moved the number to -4.5 after Burrow's injury.
"We could also potentially make an adjustment based on how Minnesota does tonight but for now you're talking about a 3/3.5-point adjustment," John Murray, vice president of the SuperBook, said. "That speaks to the competency level of the backup [Jake Browning]. If Browning doesn't play well today in relief of Burrow, you're most likely looking at a bigger adjustment."
How rare was the Panthers (+6.5) cover against the Cardinals? The last team to cover a spread of +7 or less after trailing by at least 24 points was in Week 15 of 2015 when the Giants covered +4.5 against the Panthers (Dec. 20, 2015). Since that date, teams to trail by 24 points and not be at least 7.5-point underdogs were 0-305 ATS before today's cover.

Sept. 14: Bettors backing Eagles vs. underdog Chiefs

David Purdum: The Kansas City Chiefs have been favored in 22 consecutive home games, the longest such streak in the NFL. Barring late line movement, that streak will end Sunday.

The visiting Philadelphia Eagles were consensus 1-point favorites over the Chiefs on Sunday morning. The line opened around pick 'em at most sportsbooks, but the Eagles moved into the role of favorites early in the week, with the point spread growing to as high as -1.5 at some sportsbooks, including ESPN BET. Philadelphia had attracted more than than 70% of the money wagered on the point spread at ESPN BET as of Sunday morning.

"Bettors didn't want to go too overboard with this one and push the Eagles too far to the favorite," said Johnny Avello, the sportsbook director for DraftKings. "But they wanted to make 'em the favorite."

If the line holds, the Super Bowl rematch will mark only the second game that Kansas City has been a home underdog with Patrick Mahomes as its starting quarterback. Mahomes was a home underdog against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6 of the 2022 season.

He has been an underdog in 15 previous games, including the playoffs, going 11-4 straight up and 12-2-1 against the spread in those matchups.

Sunday afternoon's game at Arrowhead Stadium will be the 11th meeting between teams that played each other in the previous season's Super Bowl. In such rematches, the team that won the previous Super Bowl is 7-3 outright and against the spread. The Eagles blew out the Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX in February.

"The Eagles winning would be a great outcome for customers, along with the Cowboys, Bills and Lions, who are all favored by nearly a touchdown," BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said in a release. "An upset to break up the big favorites money-line parlays would be a positive for BetMGM."

Sept. 11: Commanders, Packers face off in battle of conflicting hype

Doug Greenberg: The Green Bay Packers sent shockwaves across the NFL by acquiring All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys one week prior to the season. The blockbuster trade instantly improved the Packers' Super Bowl outlook, with ESPN BET initially moving them from +2000 to +1600 in that market and then further to +1300.

One week in and Parsons has seemingly lived up to the hype, recording a sack in Green Bay's decisive 27-13 victory over the division rival Detroit Lions. Perhaps more importantly, he has provided a boost to the Packers defense that forced bookmakers to take even more notice in the context of the rest of the NFC and NFL. After Thursday and Friday's opening games, the Packers shortened to +1100, and following the convincing win on Sunday, they're down to +800, fourth on the odds board, headed into "Thursday Night Football."

While sportsbooks have taken different approaches to adjusting on Green Bay's futures, it's clear at this point -- between heavy public action and on-field dominance -- that they deserve to be in the Super Bowl favorite conversation.

"We saw a good amount of futures action on the Packers after the Parsons trade, and that has sustained through a strong Week 1 showing as they remain our most-bet team by bets and handle wagered since acquiring Parsons," ESPN BET senior director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said over email.

"We took them down a couple ticks [initially] because he still has to perform, and we don't base a future book on one guy, especially if it's a defensive player," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "But after the performance by the Packers as a team overall on an isolated national TV game last week, then we took quite a bit of money and we dropped 'em."

It leaves last season's NFC finalists, the Washington Commanders, in a somewhat strange spot headed into their showdown with the Pack on "TNF."

Given their status as the oldest team in the league by average player age, many analysts expected regression from the Commanders in their second season of the Dan Quinn-Jayden Daniels era. That apathy extended to the betting public, who have backed Washington at only a 3.5% handle clip to win the Super Bowl, ninth-best, even after a solid Week 1 win.

Sportsbooks are taking a more positive approach to the team and have only improved their odds since the offseason: ESPN BET shortened the Commanders from +2000 to +1800 in the Super Bowl market after Week 1.

"From an oddsmaker's perspective, that [regression prediction] doesn't come into play," said Avello. "We give the team a power rating based on their personnel and that personnel they had was pretty good last year. So until we see a drop-off from any portion of this team, we will keep that power rating intact."

It creates an intriguing matchup on paper for Thursday night. Green Bay entered the week as a 3.5-point favorite and have sustained that at most books, but the vig started to favor Washington's side of the spread as of Thursday morning, meaning a move down to -3 before kickoff isn't out of the question. At BetMGM, the Packers spread has 56% of the tickets and 64% of the handle.