Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 3 of 2025's safest starting pitchers — should you draft them at ADP?

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Among the improvements, you can access new, detailed maximum and minimum projections in points leagues to better predict a number of things when it comes to your draft prep, including which potential picks you can trust more than others to give your fantasy team consistent results.

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Using the Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model, we’ve identified three starting pitchers with the narrowest range of outcomes (AKA the safest starters to project) for 2025. We've also included a wealth of data, both free (consensus projected fantasy points and 2025 season stats) as well as exclusive to Yahoo Fantasy Plus (consensus maximum/minimum fantasy points projections and highest/lowest expert rank) to give you a sample of all we have to offer.

Scott Pianowski has analyzed the data and reveals if he’s in or out on each player.

Zack Wheeler, Phillies

• 10th-narrowest range of outcomes among starting pitchers using Fantasy Plus modeling

• Projected fantasy points: 811

• Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 1,026

• Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 465

2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections

Rankings overview

• Composite expert rank: 24

• Highest overall rank: 12 (Ryan Rufe, Rotowire)

• Lowest: 34 (Dalton Del Don, Yahoo)

• Yahoo ADP: 25

The best ability is availability, right? Wheeler has proven to be a horse. He's made 32, 32, 26, 32, 31 and 29 starts in his last six full seasons, and even got to 71 innings in the pandemic year. Last year he ran lucky with batted-ball fortune, which explains the career-best WHIP, but Baseball Savant still says he pitched to a 2.80 expected ERA. The Phillies don't have the tightest defense, but the lineup should provide ample run support.

Bottom line: Perhaps there's some nervousness with Wheeler stepping into his age-35 season, but given his body type (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and fairly stable fastball velocity, I'm comfortable drafting him with a full-season expectation. I'll sign off on Wheeler in the third round of drafts.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

• 2nd-narrowest range of outcomes among starting pitchers using Fantasy Plus modeling

• Projected fantasy points: 645

• Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 841

• Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 346

2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections

Rankings overview

• Composite expert rank: 57

• Highest overall rank: 44 (Del Don)

• Lowest: 69 (Rufe)

• Yahoo ADP: 53

Yamamoto is no longer the new kid in town or even the newest Japanese pitcher on the Los Angeles roster. But let's acknowledge that he came as advertised in 2024. A rotator cuff strain cost him about half the season, but the efficiency stats were excellent — plus grades for his strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. That's the way you win games: pound the zone, don't give anything away, keep the ball on the ground.

Bottom line: Maybe the 90 innings from last year will scare some managers, but Yamamoto was a durable pitcher overseas and he's looked sharp in the spring (13 innings, three walks, 14 strikeouts). In an era where it's hard to find anyone who might get to 200 innings, I'm fine to sign up for 150 or so from Yamamoto — the playoff-assured Dodgers do have a load-management tint to them — and enjoy the dominant ratios that should come along. He's merely entering his age-26 season. A good target at ADP.

Luis Castillo, Mariners

• 8th-narrowest range of outcomes among catchers using Fantasy Plus modeling

• Projected fantasy points: 657

• Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 833

• Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 357

2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections

Rankings overview

• Composite expert rank: 92

• Highest overall rank: 73 (Scott Pianowski, Yahoo)

• Lowest: 118 (Andy Behrens, Yahoo)

• Yahoo ADP: 95

The Castillo angle is similar to the Wheeler case — he's proven durable and takes the ball. Note the 121 starts the last four years. But although Castillo is two years younger than Wheeler, last year's Castillo production had some warts — a 3.91 FIP and a velocity dip for the fourth straight season. Castillo's strikeout rate also just barely dipped under one per inning for the first time in six years.

Bottom line: Because Castillo is merely 32 and his home Seattle park will hide a lot of mistakes, I can sign off on an ADP just inside the top 100. Castillo doesn't have to be your ace, he can reasonably handle a SP3 or SP4 tag, depending on format.

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