Would Europe Actually Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariffs?

European Union officials have spent the past week finalizing a plan to hit back at the United States in response to President Trump’s tariffs, laying the groundwork to hit more than $100 billion worth of American imports with levies if negotiations on a new trade deal fail.

But a question looms over that effort.

“If it comes to it, will they?” asked Frances Burwell, a fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, a research organization.

Officials from the 27-nation bloc have spent months preparing to retaliate, only to hold off in favor of more talks. In April, E.U. policymakers approved a plan to impose tariffs on 21 billion euros (nearly $25 billion) of American goods. But they abruptly suspended them in a show of good will when Mr. Trump pivoted at the last minute and paused some painful across-the-board tariffs. The goal was to negotiate.

No deal was forthcoming.

Instead, Mr. Trump said on social media last week that he planned to impose 30 percent tariffs on the bloc starting on Aug. 1. After that announcement, E.U. officials chose to again delay that first batch of retaliatory tariffs — which had been suspended only through July 14 — to allow room for more talks. But they have also redoubled their vow to respond forcefully if necessary.

E.U. trade officials are now finishing up a second list of tariffs that would target an even longer list of American goods, one that amounts to €72 billion ($84 billion) of goods that includes Boeing airplanes and Kentucky bourbon. The final version was sent to member states on Monday, said diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an internal process. National representatives have not yet voted on the list.

That push to be prepared to retaliate is rooted in an uncomfortable reality. The European Union would prefer to come up with a negotiated solution and avoid a painful and protracted trade war, but the talks could still fail. Strength, many politicians and ministers pointed out, seems to be the only negotiating language that Mr. Trump understands.