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WNBA semifinals predictions, how to watch, what to know

The 2025 WNBA playoffs delivered the most dramatic first round possible. Three series went the distance, four games out of 11 were decided on the final possession, home teams lost four times and a 17-game winning streak snapped.

After all the chaos, the final four teams are set: No. 1 seed Minnesota, No. 2 Las Vegas, No. 4 Phoenix and No. 6 Indiana. Each franchise has previously won a title, but the Fever’s lone championship came in 2012, the Mercury’s most recent title in 2014 and the Lynx’s most recent in 2017. Those fan bases have been waiting to get back to the promised land.

Meanwhile, the Aces are going for their third in four years with the core of A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, which would unequivocally qualify them as a dynasty.

The semifinals are five-game series in the 2-2-1 format, with the higher seed hosting a potential decisive Game 5. Here is how to watch the games, how these teams fared against one another during the regular season and what to look forward to as they meet for the opportunity to reach the WNBA Finals.

No. 1 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 4 Phoenix Mercury

Regular-season record

The Lynx went 3-1 against the Mercury.

Schedule

Game 1 at Minnesota, 5 p.m. (ET) Sunday, ESPN

Game 2 at Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN

Game 3 at Phoenix, 9:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN2

Game 4 (if necessary) at Phoenix, TBD

Game 5 (if necessary) at Minnesota, TBD

What to know

Two MVP finalists meet as Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas face off in an encore of last year’s semifinals, though Thomas has moved from the Connecticut Sun to Phoenix. The Lynx have the rest advantage, winning their first-round series Wednesday, while the Mercury clinched Friday and had to travel to Minnesota. Historically, the Lynx have owned this matchup. They are 13-2 in the playoffs against Phoenix. Though the rosters have evolved, Cheryl Reeve has coached all of those victories.

The Mercury will debut their big three for the first time this season against Minnesota. Kahleah Copper missed all four games against the Lynx, and Thomas and Satou Sabally each played in two games without the other.

Does Minnesota have enough depth?

The Lynx announced Saturday that DiJonai Carrington will miss the postseason with a left foot injury. Minnesota now has only one backcourt reserve in its rotation. If Courtney Williams has an off night and makes poor decisions with the ball, or Bridget Carleton gets into foul trouble defending Copper, only Natisha Hiedeman is coming in off the bench. The margin for error just got a lot slimmer for the Lynx, who acquired Carrington to compensate for a season-ending foot injury to Karlie Samuelson.

Phoenix consistently plays eight deep and finds situational minutes for others depending on the matchup. If the series is called tight and both teams have to go to the bench, or if overtime is necessary, Minnesota might have to get creative, perhaps going with Napheesa Collier at the three and a double-big lineup with two of Alanna Smith, Jessica Shepard and Maria Kliundikova.

Can Phoenix score effectively?

The Mercury’s defense won their first-round series against the New York Liberty, who had the worst offensive rating of the postseason. Phoenix’s offense didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, though. Fortunately for the Mercury, their strengths and weaknesses match well against Minnesota. They can play five-out spacing, which gave the Lynx some difficulty against the Golden State Valkyries, and while Minnesota excels at congesting the paint, Phoenix doesn’t rely heavily on scoring in the lane. The Mercury also dominated the offensive glass in their wins against the Liberty, and the Lynx aren’t a great defensive rebounding team.

This is Smith’s biggest test to date as the co-Defensive Player of the Year. She and Collier will have to prevent Thomas from orchestrating the offense. Minnesota can live with her as a scorer, but not as a super-charged facilitator. Perhaps the experience of going up against Thomas last postseason will prepare the Lynx frontcourt for this matchup.

The prediction

Lynx win in five games.

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever

Regular-season record

The Fever went 2-1 against the Aces.

Schedule

Game 1 at Las Vegas, 3 p.m. (ET) Sunday, ABC

Game 2 at Las Vegas, 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN

Game 3 at Indiana, 7:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN2

Game 4 (if necessary) at Indiana, 3 p.m. Sunday, ABC

Game 5 (if necessary) at Las Vegas, TBD

What to know

Another matchup featuring two MVP finalists: A’ja Wilson and Kelsey Mitchell. The stakes for both, however, are different. Indiana realizes that most of the external pressure is off after its litany of injuries, and Las Vegas is in championship-or-bust mode. The Fever will still compete, but they are relishing the underdog role.

Although the Fever won the regular-season series, that provides little solace going forward. Indiana earned both of its wins at home but does not have homecourt in this series. Furthermore, the Fever started Aari McDonald and Sophie Cunningham in their last game against Las Vegas, and they played Sydney Colson for 18 minutes off the bench. All three are now out for the season, replaced by Odyssey Sims, Aerial Powers and Shey Peddy. The Aces were still starting Jewell Loyd at the time. They went 18-1 to end the regular season after moving Loyd to the bench. As coach Becky Hammon said last week, the Fever “haven’t seen the real Aces yet.”

The magic number of 75

Las Vegas is 15-1 when it holds opponents to 75 points or less, including its Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm. The Aces were 15-13 when the opposition cracked 76, and the Fever had one of the WNBA’s better offenses, averaging 84.9 points per game. It also tallied at least 80 in each game against Las Vegas this season.

Indiana will have to maintain its offensive firepower with significantly different personnel. This is a fast-paced team that can score well on the break, and the Aces spent much of their practice before Game 1 highlighting transition defense. The Fever also attacks downhill with regularity. Las Vegas has Wilson to protect the paint, but individual defenders will have to keep their assignment in front to prevent the Aces from losing their defensive shell.

How will Indiana defend A’ja Wilson?

Stephanie White said all of the expected clichés about the Wilson matchup. The reigning MVP will get hers, and Indiana has to be OK with that, but the Fever have to make every opportunity as challenging as possible. The interesting question is whether Indiana decides to single-cover Wilson, like Seattle did in its closeout game. That runs the risk of Wilson going on a tear, but it also shuts off the water to her teammates. Still, there is a discipline required to not send help when a player is scoring 38 points with ease. The best defense against Wilson might be making her work on the other end. Aliyah Boston has to be aggressive from the jump as a scorer and a playmaker.

The prediction

Aces win in four games.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever, Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury, WNBA

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