Why Surrendering a Key Eastern Region Would Be Hard for Ukraine

After President Trump announced that he would meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday, the American leader suggested that the end of the war would involve “some swapping of territories” between Russia and Ukraine.

It is not clear what, if any, occupied territory Russia would be prepared to give up as part of a swap. But Moscow wants Ukraine to unilaterally withdraw from the entire eastern region known as the Donbas, according to European officials who have spoken with Trump administration officials about their discussions with Mr. Putin.

Ukrainian officials say they will not hand over land for a vague promise of peace that they would not trust Russia to abide by. That stance reflects not just fundamental principles of territorial sovereignty, but also military, humanitarian and political considerations that make a surrender of the Donbas hard to imagine for Ukrainians.

Here is a look at the Donbas, whose industrial cities have stood as a shield protecting Ukraine, one that thousands of Ukrainians have fought and died to sustain.

Military Significance

The Donbas region shaped some of the most brutal battles of World War II and continues to define the fiercely contested front today.

In the current war, in places like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukrainians held the line for years, forcing the Russians to pay a high price for every mile they moved forward. The two cities are the only major ones that the Russians have taken since the first year of the war.

The cities still under Ukrainian control are connected by one road running north to south, forming a defensive line that prevents Russian forces from sweeping across the country.

Giving up any of those cities “would effectively mean the collapse of this entire defensive line,” said Serhii Kuzan, the chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center.

Beyond the dense industrial cities lies wide, open terrain that is a critical gateway to Ukraine’s heartland.

Surrendering the Donbas without a fight would position Russian forces to renew their attacks and push to the west, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group.

Humanitarian Issues

A humanitarian disaster could follow a Russian takeover of the region if hundreds of thousands of people were forced to flee their homes or risk suffering under occupation.

Media organizations, human rights organizations and U.N. investigators have documented widespread and systematic human rights abuses in Russian-occupied territories, including arbitrary detention, torture, ill treatment and enforced disappearances.

More than 200,000 civilians live in the Ukrainian-controlled corner of the Donetsk region, part of the Donbas. Out of 1,298 settlements in the region, 847 are occupied by Russian forces, including 447 that have been occupied since Russia annexed Crimea and sent troops into eastern Ukraine in 2014. The Russians control about two-thirds of the region in all.

Kateryna Arisoy, who is originally from Bakhmut and runs a charity dedicated to helping others escape fighting, said people living under occupation faced a grim future, including severe abuse for those who oppose the occupation authorities.

“I say that there is no life in the occupied territories — people there are simply surviving,” she said.

Political Reality

While neither the White House nor the Kremlin has publicly put forward a specific proposal regarding “land swaps,” the quick rejection of the idea by President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine reflected an underlying reality often missed in the West, said Yaroslav Hrytsak, a Ukrainian historian.

Ukrainian identity, he said, centers on the principle “nothing about us without us” — a core concept that dates to the Cossacks.

“If you want to resolve some Ukrainian issue without Ukrainians, in a sense, it’s denying Ukrainian identity, which is very central to Ukrainians, especially now,” he said.

That helps explain why Mr. Zelensky, despite his sagging poll numbers, has found broad support for his rejection of any land swap. He has noted that he has no authority under the country’s Constitution to bargain away parts of the country.

“The units, brigades and commanders we have been in contact with since 2014 are categorically opposed to Putin’s ultimatum,” he said.

Despite all the obstacles, Mr. Hrytsak, the historian, did not rule out a grand bargain. But he said it would have to include something as sweeping as an agreement by Russia to leave all of southern Ukraine.

And even that might not be enough, he said. Ukrainians see the territories as more than just land.

“First and foremost, people live there,” said Ms. Arisoy, who runs the charity aiding those fleeing fighting. “I also lived in a city that is now destroyed and occupied, and therefore I do not see it as just a piece of land.”

Liubov Sholudko contributed reporting.

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