📊 Who has scored more than expected? Top 5 in Europe, one is Italian 🤯

The 2024/25 season is definitely behind us and for some, the new 2025/26 season has already begun. So it's the perfect time to see who will have to meet expectations on the pitch.

In this article, we look at the most cynical players: those who have scored more goals than the statistics expected, excluding penalties.

The formula used

To calculate this ranking, the following statistic was used: Goals without penalties - (minus) Expected goals without penalties.

In this way, we can highlight who has managed to score more goals than those predicted by the statistics according to Fbref.

1) Patrick Schick: +8.1 goals

Patrick Schick's season with Bayer Leverkusen was excellent: 21 goals scored in 31 games with only 68 shots attempted in Bundesliga, an average of one goal every 3.2 shots tried. A season that earned him a contract renewal until 2030.

Schick managed to score 8.1 more goals than expected. What greatly boosted this statistic was the match against Freiburg: 1.1 expected goals and a whopping 4 scored, a high-level poker.

2) Bryan Mbeumo: +7.5 goals

Great 24/25 season also for Bryan Mbeumo with Brentford: 20 goals in 38 games (he didn't miss a single minute) and even 7.5 more goals than expected. A season that led Manchester United to buy him for more than 80 million between fixed part and bonuses.

Unlike Schick, Mbeumo did not have a single performance that greatly raised his position in this ranking. However, 4 times in the season he managed to score a goal having at most 0.3 expected goals in that match: quality.

3) Matheus Cunha: +6.4 goals

Another new Manchester United signing in the ranking, the former Wolverhampton star Matheus Cunha: 33 games, 15 goals scored of which 6.4 were scored in the last Premier thanks to overperformance.

What's surprising is a particular fact: Cunha never had a performance in which he "missed" clear goals, at most he missed 0.4 xG in a single game. He also never reached 1 xG during the 90 minutes: this means that he had "few" easy chances, but still managed to score often.

4) Ayoze Perez: +6.3 goals

In 4th place but by a very small margin, Ayoze Perez's season with Villarreal was still fantastic: 19 goals in 30 games during LaLiga.

For him, many goals well distributed throughout the season and only two dry spells, two games in which he missed 2.3 xG without finding the net. Negative performances overturned on many occasions: in particular by a double with only 0.4 expected goals.

5) Mateo Retegui: +6.1 goals

Closing this TOP 5 is the Serie A top scorer who is now a new player for Al-Qadsiah. For him, 25 goals in 36 games and 6.1 more goals scored than expected.

More fluctuating performance for Retegui compared to the other members of the ranking: great exploits like the poker against Verona or the hat-trick against Genoa, lowered by some "bewitched" games in which he remained dry despite several missed xG.

📸 Lars Baron - 2025 Getty Images