​​Where Will Lucid Be in 1 Year?

Reuben Gregg Brewer, The Motley Fool

Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 6:45 AM 5 min read

• Lucid is an electric vehicle startup in a challenging industry.

• The company is in the process of ramping up its production.

• At the same time, it's still burning through cash at a rapid clip.

Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) is one of a small number of electric vehicle (EV) start-ups that have actually managed to produce a material number of vehicles for sale. It is nowhere near the scale of industry heavyweight Tesla or the legacy automakers, but it has achieved a great deal in a short period of time.

So where will Lucid be in one year? There are actually two answers to that question that are important to consider.

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Making cars is an incredibly capital-intensive affair. That's important to keep in mind as you consider Lucid's progress. What started as a mere idea has turned into a factory that is producing thousands of EVs a year. That's a huge achievement, and it was a very costly one to pull off. What Lucid has done is, without question, impressive. But it isn't enough.

To put a number on that, Lucid produced just over 9,000 EVs in 2024, roughly in line with management guidance. The goal for 2025 is to more than double that number to around 20,000. That's a pretty audacious plan that will require very strong execution by the company. But here's the thing: Tesla produced nearly 1.8 million vehicles in 2024.

Even if Lucid hits its 2025 target, it will still be a rounding error compared to the industry's most important players, since the legacy automakers produce even more vehicles than Tesla. So, assuming the company meets its production goals, in one year Lucid will be a much bigger car maker. But it will still be a small upstart. That's where a look at the company's financial statements comes into play.

In 2024, Lucid spent $1.7 billion building cars and only brought in around $800 million from the sale of its cars. The company needs to ramp up production so it can start to benefit from economies of scale. However, there are more costs to contend with than just the building of a car as you look down the income statement. Lucid spent nearly $1.2 billion on research and development and $900 million on selling, general, and administrative expenses. Those are both items that come after the gross profit line.

One year and the doubling of production will not be enough to turn Lucid into a sustainably profitable business. In total, the company's expenses came in at a touch over $3.8 billion. Since it only brought in $800 million, it clearly lost a massive amount of money in 2024. That's where the balance sheet comes into play.