Three Astros Things

Some assorted topics to cogitate about, as we await perhaps the most important stretch of the schedule.

Over the last series, rookie Zach Cole made a name for himself with a debut that led to an important Astros’ win. Over the same series, Valdez continued a late season slide which could have critical implications for the Astros’ post season hopes.

Cole was a surprise addition to the Astros’ active roster last week. And he seemed to make an immediate impact, like GM Dana Brown had hoped. It’s too early to make a definitive profile for Cole. But he currently looks like potentially a future Joey Gallo. His 35% K rate in the minors point to plenty of swing and miss. But he also has extreme home run power and excellent exit velocity capability. In addition, Cole also appears to have enough plate discipline to take walks. The classic 3 true outcome player, if that description holds. In addition, similar to Gallo, Cole has good OF skills and a strong arm. Although Gallo never became a superstar, as many predicted when he was a rookie, his performance was quite valuable over his first few years in the majors.

Chandler Rome’s Athletic article discussed the Astros’ scouting of Cole, who hails from Ball State University. The scout who found Cole, Scott Oberhelman, also scouted Hunter Brown (out of Wayne State University) for the Astros. His scouting antenna went up when he asked Ball State teammates who the best athlete is on their team, and they responded, “Zach Cole is a freak.“

Oberhelman calls Cole’s tools “off the charts,” and says, Cole “is a ‘twitchy’ player with an arm that reached 99 mph from the outfield and ‘off the charts’ bat speed. ” Cole’s first 14 swings as a major-leaguer averaged 78 mph. The average is 71 mph.

At this point, Cole may need more player development, but the Astros hope that he stays hot and adds needed power and plate discipline to the lineup. If that happens, he could be a revelation down the stretch.

Turning to Framber’s recent slide, this has implications both for the Astros’ post season hopes and the left hander’s free agency prospects. How bad are Framber’s results in August and September (so far)? He has 1 win and 6 losses over that span. Framber’s WHIP and ERA in August and September:

August 1.516 WHIP 5.64 ERA

September 1.563 WHIP 7.88 ERA

Despite the poor stats in the late season, Framber’s season long ERA is more than acceptable at 3.59, and his seasonal x-ERA and x-FIP are also reasonable (3.74, 3.34 respectively). We can hope that those forward looking stats presage the ability to turn things around. The team’s season hangs in the balance.

And what about Framber Valdez’s free agency future? As Chandler Rome noted, the Astros are bracing for the loss of Valdez next season. A few months ago, Valdez was listed as the top pitcher available in free agency. Despite his age next year (32), it appeared that he might be in line for a $200 million or more contract.

Valdez’s spiraling performance over the season’s most significant stretch has to give potential suitors pause before offering a massive $200 million contract. In addition, Valdez’s recent on-field emotional reactions provide another cause for caution. The publicity surrounding his conflict with catcher Cesar Salazar contributes to that concern. According to USA Today writer Bob Nightengale, “One scout said their organization already crossed Valdez off their list of free agent candidates after the incident.”

Will the past two months materially affect Valdez’s ability to obtain a massive contract? Maybe. But it’s hard to envision his contract prospects completely drying up. After all, his seasonal ERA is still quite good. In combination with his history as a solid starting pitcher, he probably still will receive a nice sized contract, even if it doesn’t quite reach Max Fried or Corbin Burnes territory.

There is one solution if Valdez wants to reverse the Astros’ late season decline and the potential negative impact on his future free agent contract: stellar pitching over the remainder of the season and through the post season.

What pitches do Astros’ hitter handle well…and what are those they don’t? As the season has progressed, you probably have noticed trends in the types of pitches thrown to various Astros’ hitters. So, I turned to Statcast to tell us the run value of pitch types against specific Astros batters. The high and low hitter run values for the particular pitches are shown below.

Run Value and Pitch Type

4 Seam Fastball

+10 Altuve

+3 to +9 Pena, Paredes, Correa, Diaz.

-1 Walker, Smith, Alvarez.

Lowest -8 Dubon

Sweeper

Paredes +10

+4 to +5 Caratini, Walker, Smith

Worst -3 Diaz

Sinker

+7 Dubon

+3 to +6 Pena, Paredes

Lowest -3 to -7 Smith, Correa

Curve

+3 Paredes

+1 Smith, Altuve, Sanchez, Dubon

Lowest -3 Meyers

Change Up

+3 to +4 Correa, Alvarez, Smith

-2 Pena, Walker

-4 Caratini

Slider

Alvarez +5

Caratini +1

Lowest -7 to -9 Smith, Dubon

With an upcoming tight playoff race involving all three AL West teams (Astros, Mariners, Rangers), it’s interesting to look back at 2023 which is the last time a similar scenario played out.

On September 15, 2023 the Astros were up 1 game in the AL West. The Astros then proceeded to lose 2 of 3 to the Royals and 2 of 3 to the Orioles. The Astros remained up by 1/2 game. The Astros then lost 3 straight to the Royals. The Astros were 2.5 games behind the Rangers on September 25. The Astros won 2 of 3 from the Mariners, but remained 2.5 games behind in the division race. Beginning on Sept. 29, the Astros won their final 3 games against the D-Backs.

Meanwhile the Rangers faced the Mariners in their final series, and they lost 3 of 4 to Seattle. The Astros and Rangers ended up tied for the Division. The Astros took the division crown based on tie breaker.

When you look back at it from the Astros’ perspective, that was an exciting stretch run. Lots of ups and downs. My only point right now: don’t get hung up each time the “Games Behind” column goes up or down. Things can change in a hurry, just as they did in 2023.

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