The Trump Trade has changed. Here are the 6 big themes for investors to watch.

Jennifer Sor

Thu, Jul 17, 2025, 9:12 PM 4 min read

• The market playbook for Donald Trump's presidency has shifted in the months since his inauguration.

• Analysts at NDR updated their Trump Trade index, a group of investments tied to Trump's agenda.

• Strategists identified six themes for investors to monitor.

Investors in the early days of Donald Trump's second term thought they had identified the clearest winners from the president's agenda, but more than halfway through his first year in office, the playbook has shifted.

Analysts at Ned Davis Research this week said they recently revised their Trump Trade Index — an index of investment themes they believe will benefit from Trump's agenda.

The firm's original Trump Trade Index included investment themes like space and reshoring, as well as bitcoin and Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Trump's social media network.

"When we created our initial Trump Trade index prior to the 2024 election, we had only a general idea of Trump's agenda and key themes impacted," strategists wrote in a report on Wednesday. "However, after reviewing 170 executive orders, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and an ever-changing foray into tariffs, we have a much better indication of agenda priorities."

Markets have been surprised by how Trump's policy agenda has shifted so far this year. US stocks soared after Trump secured his second term in office, before embarking on a wild roller coaster ride as Trump announced his worldwide tariff package and negotiations dragged into this summer.

Here's an update on what investment themes investors should add to the Trump-era playbook.

Thesis:

Trump signed a slew of executive orders supporting aerospace innovation and the drone, cybersecurity, and shipbuilding industries in the US.

The GOP tax and spending bill has also earmarked around $150 billion for overall defense spending, $29 billion to shipbuilding, and $170 billion for border enforcement. The bill also has a $24 billion budget to help build the Golden Dome, an ambitious defense system that aims to put American anti-missile weapons into space.

Factors like China's military advancement and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine also raise the risk that the US could become more involved in geopolitical conflict, strategists suggested.

"While several themes look overbought, some are sure to have staying power over Trump's term. Unfortunately, we believe Defense could have staying power," the report said.

Relevant ETFs: SHLD

Thesis:

Trump has also signed executive orders supporting the copper and rare minerals industry in the US. Meanwhile, the Big Beautiful bill includes tax incentives that support energy exploration in the US, which could also boost the metals and mining industries.