The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Best days lie ahead for DK Metcalf, Geno Smith

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

Geno Smith’s six TD passes are a lie

Smith easily leads the league in passing yards and attempts, but he’s tied for 19th in touchdowns. Smith ranks third in passes inside the five this season, and he’s somehow converted just two of 15 end-zone targets (fourth most) into scores. Smith’s 2.4% TD rate ranks 32 out 34 qualified quarterbacks, and this is someone who’s one year removed from leading the NFC in touchdown passes.

The Seahawks’ wide receivers have done Smith no favors this season, but that figures to regress along with his TD rate. Seattle ranks first in pass rate over expectation and neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line. Smith gets an Atlanta defense with the league’s second-lowest pressure rate in a matchup with a 51-point total this week, so more touchdowns will start coming Sunday.

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DK Metcalf’s WR26 rank is a lie

Metcalf has been the WR26 in fantasy points per game this season, but he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points. Metcalf was inches away from scoring three separate touchdowns last week, when he easily led the league in air yards. He ranks top five in targets and top 10 in air yards share on a team attempting by far the most passes in the NFL. Seattle leads the league in PROE and neutral pass rate inside the 10. Metcalf is seeing the most targets of his career, and Geno Smith is due for major touchdown regression.

The Falcons are tough to run on but enter with the league’s second lowest pressure rate, so the window to trade for Metcalf may slam shut after this weekend.

Amari Cooper’s WR50 rank is a lie

Cooper has been a fantasy bust despite seeing the seventh-most targets and the second-most air yards in the league this season. Deshaun Watson has one of the lowest YPAs through six Weeks in NFL history while also taking the most sacks this year. Cooper has suffered from the most uncatchable air yards and will now get a significant upgrade at quarterback with the trade to Buffalo.

Cooper has committed some drops and hasn’t played his best football this season, but quarterback play is firmly responsible for most of his ugly stats. He’s continued to earn targets and has created his most separation since 2018. Cooper goes from the third-lowest scoring offense to the seventh highest. The Bills clearly lack an alpha wide receiver, a role in which Cooper will eventually (immediately?) step into. The upgrade from Watson to Josh Allen is as dramatic as it gets, so Cooper is suddenly a top-20 WR again.

Ladd McConkey’s WR45 rank is a lie

McConkey saw the rookie bump coming out of last week’s bye, recording career highs in targets, aDOT and air yards. He was tackled at the one-yard line and missed time (checked for a concussion and later a mid-section issue), so his production could’ve been bigger even in a difficult matchup. Assuming McConkey’s health is good, his fantasy rank is highly misleading.

McConkey has seen at least a 25% target share in four of five games and leads LA in routes as a rookie despite missing practice with Justin Herbert (foot) throughout August. McConkey ranks top 20 in first-read target rate and 1D/RR, which are two important future indicators. He’s top 15 in targets per route run.

The Chargers are unquestionably run-heavy, but they have the second highest neutral pass rate inside the 10-yard line this season. Los Angeles had a season-high +2% PROE during its first game out of the bye and is unlikely to continue playing with the lead so frequently. McConkey has had to face top-10 defenses in WR fantasy points allowed in four of five games this season, but the Chargers’ passing schedule eases up considerably moving forward. Quentin Johnston didn’t practice Wednesday, so now’s the time to trade for McConkey.