Technical Assessment: Neutral in the Intermediate-Term

Argus

•

May 01, 2025

Summary

The S&P 500 (SPX) and the S&P 100 (OEX) both fell for a third consecutive month in April, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) avoided that fate with minimal gains in April. For the SPX and the OEX, it was the first three-month decline since the August to October 2023 correction. We will again note that all the major indices traced out huge bullish hammer candlesticks during the past month; while not common, these candlesticks can indicate a market that is bottoming. In April, the SPX lost 0.8% and the OEX fell 0.6%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.9% and the QQQ gained 1.6%. Information Technology (XLK) led the 11 SPX sectors, rising 1.9%. Consumer Staples (XLP) came in second with a 0.2% rise. Utilities (XLU), Industrials (XLI), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were flat. The worst sector, by far, was Energy (XLE), plunging 14%, with Healthcare (XLV) next, down 4%. It was XLE's worst month since June 2022, in the last bear market. The best stock performers in April from the SPX were dominated by IT names, with Palantir (PLTR) soaring 40%; CrowdStrike (CRWD) up 22%; GE Vernova (GEV) and Netflix (NFLX) up 21%; ServiceNow (NOW) up 20%; and Cadence Design (CDNS) up 17%. The worst perfo