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Russian (RU) Wed, Aug 13, 2025, 12:21 PM 4 min read
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October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) is down -0.09 (-0.53%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is up +1.00 (+0.21%).
NY sugar prices today are trading lower on some long liquidation pressure after the 3-session rally to a 2-month high on Tuesday.
Sugar prices rallied through Tuesday on smaller sugar supplies from Brazil. Covrig Analytics said last Friday that reports of smaller cane yields from Brazil's sugar farmers may knock Brazil's 2025/26 sugarcane production below 600 MMT, much lower than Brazilian government crop forecasting agency Conab's forecast of 663.4 MMT.
An excessive short position by funds could exacerbate any short-covering rally in sugar futures. Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed funds increased their net-short positions in NY sugar futures by +25,923 positions to 151,004 short positions in the week ending August 5, the most in almost 6 years.
Last Tuesday, sugar prices fell to 5-week lows on signs of stronger sugar production in Brazil. On July 31, Unica reported Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of July rose +15% y/y to 3.4 MMT. Also, the amount of sugarcane being crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills has increased to 54% from 50% the same time last year.
The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices after Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. India's Meteorological Department reported Tuesday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 500.8 mm as of August 4, or 4% above normal. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association said last Thursday that it will seek permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India's sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
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