Should we have been surprised? A look back at the season's first-half predictions

Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

We have made quite a few surprising predictions in this weekly space during the first half of the 2025 season, and some of them (but certainly not all!) have turned out to look quite silly. Then again, the point is to go beyond typical thinking when making bold statements. As the league gets ready to start the second half of the season, let's first take a look back at some of the more notable, big-name conjectures from April and May to see how things are turning out.

Don't be surprised ... if things don't get significantly better for Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers (from April 3)

Well, they did get better. Devers famously began the season 0-for-19 in five March games, striking out 15 times. Combined with shoulder issues from 2024 that compromised his spring training schedule, there was reason for concern in fantasy. Then Devers hit .356 in May with seven home runs and 33 RBIs. What came next was stunning. Whomever one blames and for whatever reason, Devers is now on the San Francisco Giants, and he is hitting just .202 for them with two home runs in 25 games. For the season, all looks normal. He's on pace for more than 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, with what is already a career high in walks, and typical durability. It's been a weird season, though ultimately not one to run away from in fantasy.

Don't be surprised... if Washington Nationals OF James Wood becomes a top-10 fantasy outfielder, just like the $765-million man (Juan Soto) he was once included in a trade for (from April 10)

This one was all about roto/categories leagues, since Soto continues to be a walk machine and thus, he is far more valuable in points formats. The implication here, two weeks into the season, was that the emerging Wood might be a better roto option than the exalted Soto. So far, that has happened. Wood is the No. 10 hitter on the Player Rater. Soto, thanks mainly to a depressed .262 batting average, is "only" No. 15. Let's agree that Wood is an awesome building block (although a high strikeout rate scares us a bit), but there is nothing to worry about with Soto. We appreciate Soto having already stolen 11 bases, just one off his career high. He should reach a career-best runs scored total, too.

Don't be surprised ... if Texas Rangers 2B Marcus Semien leads the most-dropped list soon (from April 10)

This one did not happen "soon" -- or at all -- and that's a good thing. Semien, long a fantasy favorite for middle-infield production and durability, entered June hitting a sad .193 with four home runs and batting eighth or ninth in Bruce Bochy's (still) underwhelming lineup. Some fantasy managers moved on. Then Semien hit .324 in June with 16 RBI and 18 runs scored. He is the No. 15 second baseman on the Player Rater, No. 4 over the past 30 days. Dropping Semien was a bad call, though it seems clear he is not the player he once was.

One month later, on May 8, we made the same "most-dropped list" proclamation for Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman. That was a better call. He remains rostered in 88.4% of standard leagues, mainly because he has that IL asterisk.

Don't be surprised ... if Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll delivers 35 home runs (from April 17)

Carroll enters the season's second half with 21 home runs, only four off his career best, and slugging a resounding .608 off right-handed pitching. While we like the power, Carroll's overall hitting trajectory is worrisome, as he is striking out far more in 2025 than over he did the last two seasons, chasing pitches outside the strike zone. Plus, his 11 stolen bases over 80 games is a disappointing figure, since he stole 54 bases as a rookie.

This version of Carroll, hitting .245 but on pace for more than 35 home runs, remains quite valuable, but not nearly as much as the 2023 version who was a top-10 fantasy hitter. This version ranks No. 37 among hitters in both roto and points formats -- which is definitely not good value for a top-10 pick. The home run prediction looks good, but the overall value has slipped.

Don't be surprised ... if Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes fails to win 10 games this season (from May 22)

This one, quite unfortunately, is quite realistic, as Skenes hit the break with a 4-8 record in 20 starts. He is not on pace for double-digit victories. Everything else, of course, looks awesome, as Skenes made his second consecutive NL All-Star game start this week. No starting pitcher has a better ERA. Skenes might strike out 200 hitters. Blame Pittsburgh's offense. Comparatively, wins matter more in roto leagues, and Skenes is "only" the No. 9 starting pitcher (excluding Shohei Ohtani) on the Player Rater. He is fourth among starting pitchers in points scored. It feels ridiculous that 103 pitchers have more wins -- through no fault of Skenes -- but it's still true, and wins do matter in most fantasy leagues.

Don't be surprised ... if Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani breaks the modern mark for runs scored in a season (from May 29)

Ohtani enters the second half leading the sport with 91 runs scored, having done so over 95 games. Ohtani has missed two Dodgers games this season -- a notable achievement despite pitching in five games, covering nine innings. There is nobody else like Ohtani. While it remains possible that Ohtani will score more runs than games played, it isn't likely. Still, the lone player to score 150 runs in any season since 1950 is Houston Astros 1B Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Ohtani can do this.

As I wrote in May, I doubt Ohtani helps many fantasy teams with his pitching, as the Dodgers are a near-playoff lock and will cautiously stretch this ace out for meaningful October action, worrying little about August. However, at the plate, even with the expected sharp decline in stolen bases, Ohtani remains a fantasy monster.

Other hot takes from early in the season

• Chicago Cubs OF Kyle Tucker seems unlikely to finish as the No. 1 fantasy option (from April 24), mainly because New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge and Ohtani will not permit it. Still, Tucker is having a top-10 season, and regardless of which team he plays for in 2026, he should be a top-10 fantasy pick.

• Astros RHP Hunter Brown also seems unlikely to finish as the No. 1 pitcher in fantasy (from May 1), though he is No. 4 among starters on the Player Rater. As with Judge/Ohtani, perhaps Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal and Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler simply wouldn't permit it.

• Meanwhile, Athletics rookie 1B Nick Kurtz did in fact debut during April (from April 3), and he is on his way to 30 home runs.

• Colorado Rockies C/OF Hunter Goodman seems well on his way to being among the top 10 catchers in fantasy (from April 10), as he is a strong No. 3 at the position.

• Diamondbacks 3B Eugenio Suarez keeps blasting home runs, solidifying his spot among the top 50 fantasy hitters (from May 1).

• It's quite the understatement to note things look positive for Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh to finish among the top 25 hitters this season (from May 8). He ranks No. 5 on the Player Rater!

• Much like Semien, once-sputtering Astros 2B/OF Jose Altuve turned his season around, so the prediction that he is no longer a top-100 player (from May 15) was not a wise one. Altuve is back to being the No. 1 second baseman in fantasy, although dynasty/keeper investors should use this opportunity to seek a trade.

• Unfortunately, enticing Atlanta Braves RHP AJ Smith-Shawver will not win the NL Rookie of the Year award (from May 22). He underwent Tommy John surgery two weeks later.

• Kansas City Royals LHP Kris Bubic is 2-4 with a 4.24 ERA since we forecast that he would finish a top-10 hurler (from May 29). Time to clean this crystal ball a bit before we get back into the prediction game for the rest of the season!