Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

Your 2025 NL Central Champion Milwaukee Brewers are heading west for their final road series of the season, as they’ll take on the San Diego Padres for three games beginning Monday evening. With the magic number down now down to three for MLB’s No. 1 seed, both of these teams still have something to play for. The Padres, at 85-71, are on the verge of clinching a postseason berth, and they’re still in play for the NL West as they trail the Dodgers by three games with six games to play (though the Dodgers own the tiebreaker).

While the Brewers may have the best record with one week left in the season, they certainly aren’t the healthiest team. Brandon Woodruff hit the IL on Sunday with a right lat strain, another “postseason surprise” after they lost Woodruff two years ago right before the playoffs. He’s still eligible to return for the postseason, but the prognosis doesn’t seem promising at this time. Beyond him, Trevor Megill could return in time for the playoffs, as could DL Hall, Logan Henderson, and Jose Quintana. Pitchers Shelby Miller, JB Bukauskas, and Connor Thomas are done for the year, as well as outfielder Garrett Mitchell.

The Padres are without shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who could potentially return for this series, as he’s been out since late August with a foot fracture. Former Brewer Nestor Cortes is also shelved with biceps tendinitis, but he could be back in time for the playoffs. Joe Musgrove, Jason Adam, and Jhony Brito are all out for the year, while reliever David Morgan is eligible to come off the IL with shoulder inflammation later this week.

Milwaukee’s offense is led by Christian Yelich, who is just one homer from reaching 30 on the year after he crossed the 100-RBI threshold last week. Jackson Chourio remains two steals from another 20-20 season, while Brice Turang needs two homers for a 20-20 season of his own. William Contreras is currently day-to-day with (another) hand injury, but reports say you should see him on the field for this set. Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins, Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins, Andrew Vaughn, Jake Bauers, Andruw Monasterio, Joey Ortiz, Blake Perkins, and Danny Jansen round out the offense. As a team, the Crew is hitting .261/.334/.408 (.742 OPS ranks 11th) with 163 homers (tied for 20th), 790 runs scored (third), and 159 steals (second).

Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis lead the San Diego offense, as Machado has 26 homers, 93 RBIs, and 87 runs, and Tatis has added 23 homers, 66 RBIs, and 108 runs. Tatis also has 32 steals. Gavin Sheets, Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Ramón Laureano have also flashed some power for San Diego. Freddy Fermin, Elias Díaz, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Jose Iglesias, Will Wagner, Mason McCoy, and Bryce Johnson round out the team. As a team, the Padres are hitting .252/.321/.388 (.709 OPS ranks 18th) with 142 homers (29th), 665 runs scored (19th), and 105 steals (tied for 17th).

The Brewers’ bullpen is led by Abner Uribe, who has a 1.74 ERA and 88 strikeouts across 72 1/3 innings this year. Jared Koenig, Nick Mears, and Aaron Ashby have gotten most of the other high-leverage innings with Megill out. Grant Anderson, Erick Fedde, Tobias Myers, and Rob Zastryzny round out the bullpen options, while Bruce Zimmermann, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser, and Jacob Misiorowski all have experience both from the rotation and the bullpen. It’ll be interesting to see how everyone’s roles play out as we get closer to the postseason. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.62 team ERA (second), including a 3.54 starter ERA (second) and a 3.73 reliever ERA (10th). They’ve struck out 1,378 batters (fifth) over 1,387 2/3 innings.

Top to bottom, San Diego probably has the best bullpen in baseball. They’re led in appearances by Jeremiah Estrada, who has a 3.47 ERA over 70 innings with 104 strikeouts. Adrian Morejon has a 2.04 ERA over 70 2/3 innings, while closer Robert Suarez has a 3.06 ERA and 40 saves in 45 opportunities. Mason Miller, acquired at the deadline from the A’s, has been lights out, with a 0.86 ERA across 21 innings, striking out 39. Wandy Peralta has also been a reliable arm for the Padres. Yuki Matsui, Kyle Hart, Ron Marinaccio, and Bradgley Rodriguez round out the bullpen. As a staff, the Padres have a 3.68 team ERA (third), including a 4.14 starter ERA (18th) and a 3.08 reliever ERA (first). They’ve struck out 1,367 batters (seventh) over 1,377 innings.

Monday, September 22 @ 8:40 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (2.65 ERA, 3.61 FIP) vs. Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA, 3.49 FIP)

Peralta continues to make his case for the NL Cy Young Award, even if it’s all but assured that it’ll go to the Pirates’ Paul Skenes. Through 31 starts this year, Peralta leads the league with 17 wins, pitching to a 2.65 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 195 strikeouts across 169 2/3 innings. He bounced back from a rough outing against the Rangers in his last turn through the rotation, striking out 10 and allowing just one run (a solo homer) against the Angels. He’s made six career appearances (three starts) against the Padres, with a 2-1 record, 2.86 ERA, and 26 strikeouts across 22 innings. That includes six shutout frames with three strikeouts against them in a no-decision back in June.

As good as Peralta has been, Pivetta has been just as good, with a slightly worse ERA (2.81) but a slightly better FIP (3.49). The former Phillie and Red Sox right-hander has enjoyed a great season with San Diego, with a career-high 185 strikeouts across 176 innings. He went 4 2/3 innings against the Mets in his last outing, allowing three runs and striking out five. In four career starts against Milwaukee, Pivetta is 1-3 with a 9.95 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 19 innings.

Tuesday, September 23 @ 8:40 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD

Milwaukee hasn’t announced a starter for Tuesday night’s game, as the injury to Woodruff leaves a gap in the rotation. Given that Robert Gasser and Chad Patrick pitched over the weekend, neither of them seems likely here. That likely narrows it down to Bruce Zimmermann or Tobias Myers. Given that Myers has spent a good chunk of this season in the bullpen and Zimmermann has mostly pitched as a starter for Triple-A Nashville, I’ll just assume it’s Zimmermann here. A former fifth-round pick, Zimmermann is 10-7 with a 4.11 ERA and 109 strikeouts across 138 innings with the Sounds this year. He’s made 38 MLB appearances (27 starts) between 2020-2023 with the Orioles, spanning 158 1/3 innings with a 5.57 ERA, 8-10 record, and 126 strikeouts. This would mark his first career appearance against the Padres.

The Padres also have not announced a starter for this one (or Wednesday’s series finale), so we’ll just go with a continuation of their last turn through the rotation. That puts Randy Vásquez in this one. Vásquez has made 26 appearances (25 starts) this season, with a 3.94 ERA, 4.98 FIP, and 109 strikeouts across 125 2/3 innings. His last outing was a rough one against the Mets, as he allowed four runs across 2 1/3 innings on four hits and a walk, striking out three. For his career, Vásquez has made two starts against Milwaukee, allowing no runs and striking out five across 9 2/3 innings, including 4 2/3 shutout frames against them back in June.

Wednesday, September 24 @ 3:10 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP) vs. TBD

Priester’s insane stretch of “games in which he’s pitched that the Brewers have won” continues, as Milwaukee beat the Angels last week when he went 5 2/3 innings with two runs allowed and 10 strikeouts. For the year, he’s 13-2 with a 3.25 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 128 strikeouts across 152 1/3 innings. Priester’s lone career appearance against San Diego came back in 2023 while he was with the Pirates. In that game, he went 5 1/3 innings with four runs allowed and four strikeouts in a win.

Following the line of starters for San Diego, this will be Dylan Cease for the Padres. Cease, 29, is having a down year after garnering some Cy Young and MVP votes last season, though at least some of his lack of success can be attributed to bad luck, as evidenced by a 3.64 FIP, a full run better than his 4.64 ERA. He’s struck out 207 batters across 163 innings, the fifth straight season he’s eclipsed the 200-strikeout mark. He went six innings in a loss to the White Sox in his last outing, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks while striking out six. In three career starts against the Brewers, he’s 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings.

Monday, September 22: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Tuesday, September 23: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Wednesday, September 24: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin, MLB Network (out-of-market viewers), and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

This is a big test ahead of the postseason, and could be an NLDS preview if the Padres get by the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series (as the playoff picture currently stands). After the Padres eked out two of three in Milwaukee in June, I’ll take the Brewers to win two of three on the backs of Peralta and Priester.

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