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Ranking NFL Rookie of the Year candidates: Solak's way-too-early lists for offense and defense

Ben SolakMay 2, 2025, 06:45 AM ET
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The 2025 NFL draft is in the books, which means everyone's favorite bit of content -- way-too-early 2026 mock drafts -- is flying off the shelves. I have another piece of way-too-early content for you: 2025 Rookie of the Year rankings for both sides of the ball.

"How can you rank the Rookie of the Year candidates before a single snap has been played?" the timid and unimaginative cry in concern.

Easily! Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year voters follow fairly predictable patterns that are heavily influenced by draft capital spent. Production is likewise affected by landing spots, as only some rookies are immediately given high snap counts. Most are instead dropped into depth charts and have to earn their way to playing time.

Let's walk through my logic for each set of Rookie of the Year rankings -- starting with the earliest-drafted players, then adding candidates and increasing the length of the lists as I go. I'll start on offense, where I ultimately ranked 18 players.

Read more on 2025 rookies:
Miller's favorite picks | Kiper's grades

Jump to:
OROY | DROY

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The current favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year is Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (+275 at ESPN BET). In some ways, that's unsurprising. Selected with the sixth pick, Jeanty is the earliest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went second in 2018, and Barkley was the last running back to win the award. Jeanty was also considered one of the best prospects in the class, certainly better than Cam Ward, the Titans quarterback who went first as a product of the premium placed on his position. Though the Raiders' offensive line doesn't necessarily lend itself to inspiring run-game visions, the combination of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and a backfield bereft of competition spells a high-volume future for Jeanty.

But it is worth noting that Ward is the second favorite, and recent history leans on the quarterbacks. In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger became only the second QB to win the award. But since Roethlisberger, nine of the 20 Offensive Rookies of the Year have been quarterbacks. So many more signal-callers play as rookies these days than in decades past, and accordingly, there are more candidates for the award. In a similar vein, it's much easier for quarterbacks to produce bigger numbers in modern offenses, which tend to skew pass-heavy.

The past two OROY winners are instructive. In 2023, quarterback C.J. Stroud won the award over Puka Nacua despite the fact that the wide receiver set rookie records in both receptions (105) and yardage (1,486). In 2024, Jayden Daniels won the award over tight end Brock Bowers, who broke Nacua's rookie receptions record with 112 and Mike Ditka's mark for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end with 1,194. Ditka's record had stood since 1961.

Stroud and Daniels were deserving, of course. But their clear victories -- Stroud received 48 of a possible 50 first-place votes, while Daniels got 49 -- emphasize the inescapable bias toward quarterbacks that permeates NFL awards voting. When faced with an excellent QB and an excellent non-QB, voters gravitate toward the former.

As such, my favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year is Ward, the only passer with an obvious path to starting the vast majority of the 2025 season. He lands in a solid environment in Tennessee. The offensive line has been improved across all five positions over the past two seasons, and while the receiving room isn't amazing, nobody rated Washington's 2024 group or Houston's 2023 group as spectacular. The next-drafted quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart with the Giants and Tyler Shough with the Saints) are behind veterans, though the uncertain health of Derek Carr (shoulder) bumps Shough above Dart for me.

So here's our starting point building the OROY list:

1. Cam Ward, Titans
2. Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
3. Tyler Shough, Saints
4. Jaxson Dart, Giants

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Now, what about wide receiver? Only three receivers won the award between 2000 and 2020 (Anquan Boldin in 2003, Percy Harvin in 2009 and Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014). Harvin's 2009 win is shocking by 2025 standards: He caught 60 balls for 790 yards, rushed for another 135 yards and scored eight total touchdowns -- six receiving, two returning. It was a particularly tough year for rookies on offense. Early-drafted QBs Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez had more interceptions than touchdowns, and early-drafted receivers Michael Crabtree and Darrius Heyward-Bey missed time. Knowshon Moreno, the first running back off the board, tied for third in the voting with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace. Ravens right tackle Michael Oher -- yes, an offensive lineman! -- was second.

As a general rule, receivers need unsuccessful quarterback classes to win the award. In 2021, five quarterbacks went in the first 15 picks. But the most productive was the fifth one taken. Mac Jones threw for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and the Patriots earned a playoff berth. But that wasn't enough to beat out Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase, who set the rookie receiving yardage record (1,455) that Nucua would break a few seasons later.

In 2022, the only quarterback to go in the first two rounds was Kenny Pickett (20th overall), and he had about half as many passing touchdowns (7) in 12 starts as Brock Purdy (who went 262nd overall) did in five (13). Had Purdy played the entire season, he might have snuck the award away from Jets WR Garrett Wilson. But that's the thing about rookie quarterbacks -- if they don't earn the start in Week 1, it's hard for them to make up ground on the running backs and receivers who get at least some action in the early games. Wilson's hottest competition in 2022 was Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, who received more first-place votes but lost on the AP's ranked-choice voting system.

It's reasonable to expect this 2025 quarterback class to underwhelm in production, which opens up the field. The top wide receiver in contention is inarguably Panthers first-rounder Tetairoa McMillan, who went 11 picks before Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) and 15 before Matthew Golden (Packers). Egbuka and Golden enter receiver rooms thick with established talent and have challenging paths to dominant volume. The Panthers, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to funnel targets to McMillan instead of an aging Adam Thielen.

In Bryce Young's resurgent end to the 2024 season, the Panthers became extremely reliant on downfield targets -- Young was sixth in air yards per attempt from Week 8 onward. McMillan will be his best ball-winner on contested throws downfield and a strong red zone target. The potential for a 1,000-yard or 10-touchdown rookie season is there.

The elephant in the room is Jaguars WR/CB Travis Hunter, who would be an excellent candidate for this award if he were destined to play close to 100% of the offensive snaps. But that might not be the case. The Jaguars' plan for their two-way star is reportedly "fluid," and as such, it's hard to trust that Hunter will have a competitive snap count or target share relative to past winners at wide receiver. I'll slot him in at the Egbuka/Golden tier. (This isn't the only list Hunter will appear on here but -- spoiler alert -- I have snap count concerns on the other side of the ball as well.)

1. Cam Ward, Titans
2. Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
3. Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers
4. Tyler Shough, Saints
5. Travis Hunter, Jaguars
6. Matthew Golden, Packers
7. Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers
8. Jaxson Dart, Giants

Finally, we return to the position where we began: running back. Aside from Jeanty, the only other back taken in the first round was Omarion Hampton, who joins the Chargers. Hampton's opportunity is incredible. With both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards departing in free agency, 296 carries are up for grabs between Hampton and free agent signee Najee Harris. The Chargers gave Harris only a one-year deal and then drafted Hampton with their first pick, so it seems as if Hampton will get the first crack at earning the lion's share of those carries.

The Chargers represent a big opportunity for a rusher to go nuclear, too. Only 27.2% of their carries last season went for more rushing yards than expected, the fourth-worst rate in football, per NFL Next Gen Stats. The Chargers had to move away from the run as the season went on. In Weeks 1-4, they had the fourth-highest run rate over expectation. But in Weeks 14-17, they had the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation. With a back they trust to consistently create yardage, the Chargers are likely to return to their run-heavy approach -- and that back, according to their first-round investment, is Hampton.

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Two more running backs were taken with early selections: Quinshon Judkins by the Browns at No. 36, and TreVeyon Henderson by the Patriots at No. 38. Judkins has a much easier path to higher volume (beating out incumbent Jerome Ford) than Henderson (who must supplant Rhamondre Stevenson). But Stevenson had bad fumbles last season and is faced with a new coaching staff this year, so Henderson might sneakily rise to the 1A spot in that rotation faster than expected. Still, the Browns' offensive line far surpasses New England's, so we'll keep them stacked with Judkins getting the edge.

1. Cam Ward, Titans
2. Ashton Jeanty, Raiders
3. Omarion Hampton, Chargers
4. Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers
5. Tyler Shough, Saints
6. Travis Hunter, Jaguars
7. Matthew Golden, Packers
8. Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers
9. Quinshon Judkins, Browns
10. TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots
11. Jaxson Dart, Giants

Despite Colston Loveland (Bears) and Tyler Warren (Colts) being top-14 picks, I can't put them anywhere near the top of these rankings. Why? Bowers just produced what is truly the best receiving season by a rookie tight end in the history of the game and garnered exactly one first-place vote. Even if this year's quarterback class is far worse, it's almost inconceivable that either Loveland or Warren will have a better season than Bowers just did, so the enthusiasm to vote for them over a productive receiver or running back won't be there. Similarly, an offensive lineman has never won the award, and I don't expect that to change any time soon.

There are other interesting dart throws, however. Broncos running back RJ Harvey enters an incredible offensive nucleus with a ton of carries available. He was taken with the 60th pick, but of the seven players chosen outside of the first round to win this award in the past 25 years, five were running backs. One was Alvin Kamara, a Day 2 back selected by Sean Payton in 2017. Kamara split touches with Mark Ingram in New Orleans but was so productive as both a runner and pass catcher that he snagged the award in a bad quarterback year.

Another name for consideration: Steelers RB Kaleb Johnson (No. 83 overall) joins an offense with 263 vacated carries after Harris' departure to Los Angeles. Johnson is a great scheme fit with Arthur Smith's wide zone offense (similar to what the rookie had at Iowa), and the Steelers will likely need to rely on the running game given their current vacancy at quarterback. Pittsburgh clearly wants to keep Jaylen Warren in a timeshare role, so I'm not worried about him elbowing Johnson out of the rotation.

Last but not least, here are some late-Day 2 and Day 3 passers to watch. It is not impossible that Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Shedeur Sanders (Browns) or Will Howard (Steelers) wins the starting job in their woeful quarterback competitions. Should they hold those jobs the entire season, they'll presumably have good enough statistical output to qualify for this award. It's a long shot -- you're trying to hit exactly 2016 Dak Prescott, the only non-first-round quarterback to ever win OROY -- but it's not impossible.

Here's my final list:

1. Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans

2. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

3. Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

4. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

5. Tyler Shough, QB, New Orleans Saints

6. Travis Hunter, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

7. Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

8. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns

10. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots

11. Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants

12. RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos

13. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

14. Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears

15. Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts

16. Will Howard, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

17. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Cleveland Browns

18. Dillon Gabriel, QB, Cleveland Browns

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Defensive Rookie of the Year

Defensive Rookie of the Year is, unfortunately, a little bit more boring to predict. Since 2000, 22 of the 25 winners have been first-round picks -- and all three who were not first-rounders were linebackers taken before pick No. 40 (Shaquille Leonard in 2018, DeMeco Ryans in 2006 and Kendrell Bell in 2001).

And of the 22 first-rounders who have won the award since 2000, Jared Verse -- last season's winner -- was the latest drafted at No. 19. Save for Verse and Marcus Peters (2015), all of those Defensive Rookies of the Year went in the first half of the first round. We can say with some degree of confidence that the league is good at drafting impactful defenders early, but we can also say with the same confidence that DROY is a "name recognition" award.

Seven defenders were taken in the first 16 picks this year if you include Hunter. Three corners have won the award in the past 10 years (Peters, Marshon Lattimore in 2017 and Sauce Gardner in 2022), and interception production is a huge reason. Peters had eight picks in 2015; Lattimore had five in 2017. Hunter's value as a corner will come from his ability to play the ball literally like a receiver, but the issue is clear: We don't yet know how many snaps Hunter will get on either side of the ball. I'm still willing to rank Hunter for DROY but at a discount proportional to his expected snap count.

As such, Giants edge rusher Abdul Carter might be our next-best candidate. He's the favorite at ESPN BET (+250). But he also is likely to have a diminished snap count relative to our expectations for a top-five pick, as he's joining a team with established starters in Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Aidan Hutchinson, the 2022 second pick, took 84% of the defensive snaps for the Lions in Year 1; Travon Walker, the first pick that year, played 67% for the Jaguars. It's unlikely that Carter will hit those numbers. The 55% of the snaps that 2023 third pick Will Anderson Jr. got for the Texans in his rookie season seems like a more reasonable range -- and Anderson won the award that year. My concerns about Carter's snap count are far from disqualifying but an obstacle worth highlighting.

There's another worry at play for Browns DT Mason Graham, Dolphins DT Kenneth Grant and Cardinals DT Walter Nolen, and it's positional history. A defensive tackle has not won Defensive Rookie of the Year since Aaron Donald in 2014. Donald did it with nine sacks, and Ndamukong Suh did it in 2010 with 10 sacks. Since Donald, only one other defensive tackle has gotten nine or more sacks in their rookie season -- Kobie Turner for the Rams in 2023 (9). But again, this is a name recognition award. Turner didn't just lose to Anderson, who had seven sacks, but he also had fewer votes than fellow defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who had six sacks but was drafted 80 spots earlier by the Eagles.

Graham, Grant and Nolen will all have the name recognition, but will any produce the nine-plus sacks apparently needed to register for this award? It's hard for defensive tackles to accumulate counting stat production. Consider that analytics writer Seth Walder's projections have Graham for 7.8 sacks and Nolen for 6.7 across the first three seasons of their respective careers. Graham never had more than 3.5 sacks in a season in college, but I like the fact that he has very little competition for snaps in Cleveland and gets to rush alongside Myles Garrett.

That leaves us with the Georgia alums. Mykel Williams joined the 49ers at pick No. 11, and Jalon Walker was taken by the Falcons four picks later. These are my two favorite players for Defensive Rookie of the Year. They play the splashiest position; edge rushers have won the award in five of the past six years. They have very little competition for snaps. Williams needs to fend off only Yetur Gross-Matos and Drake Jackson to get opportunities opposite Nick Bosa, while Walker might be the top edge rusher on an Atlanta defense featuring Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebiketie (plus fellow rookie James Pearce Jr.).

Neither Williams nor Walker was super productive in college, but both have landed in defenses that can maximize their skill sets. Williams will play under legendary defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who will free him up to play faster off the line than he ever did at Georgia. Walker will play under coach Raheem Morris, who excelled at featuring a rushing linebacker in Kaden Elliss last season. Williams' play style and role lends itself to a little more pass-rush production than Walker's outlook, as we should expect Walker to spend some time dropping into coverage. As such, I give Williams the edge.

OK, here's our base for DROY rankings:

1. Mykel Williams, 49ers
2. Jalon Walker, Falcons
3. Abdul Carter, Giants
4. Travis Hunter, Jaguars
5. Mason Graham, Browns
6. Walter Nolen, Cardinals
7. Kenneth Grant, Dolphins

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If we expand our scope to include the entire first round, we add eight more defenders to consider. A few are easy to immediately downgrade. Ravens safety Malaki Starks plays a position that has never won the award. Lions DT Tyleik Williams is a run stuffer buried in a dense depth chart. Steelers tackle Derrick Harmon has a little more pass-rush juice and a little more opportunity for snaps, but it's hard to see a high sack ceiling.

Broncos cornerback Jahdae Barron is interesting, though. If he starts opposite Pat Surtain II, he could see a high volume of pass attempts as opposing quarterbacks avoid the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. But that's only if Barron plays a majority of snaps, and he has incumbents Riley Moss and Ja'Quan McMillian to beat. It sounds as if Barron will initially fight for that starting slot job with McMillan, and we've never had a slot corner win DROY.

Similarly, Eagles linebacker Jihaad Campbell can play a variety of roles on his defense, but he has a depth chart to slog through. If Campbell is an edge rusher in the pros, he'll rotate in for snaps behind Nolan Smith Jr. and Jalyx Hunt; if he's an off-ball linebacker, he'll do the same behind Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. I can't define his role with any confidence, so I can't rank him with any confidence, either.

The remaining candidates in the back half of the first round are Bengals edge rusher Shemar Stewart, Falcons edge rusher Pearce and Bills corner Maxwell Hairston. All three are great options. Stewart should get a ton of the snaps opposite Trey Hendrickson, and if Hendrickson plays for the Bengals in 2025, his gravity could create plenty of sack opportunities for Stewart on the other side. Similarly, Hairston will see targets playing opposite Christian Benford, and he has the ball skills and explosive play ability to create not just interceptions but also touchdown returns.

Pearce is the one with whom I struggle most. The good news: There are plenty of snaps to win on the edge, he's a sack artist by trade, and the Falcons traded a future first-rounder to get him, indicating they believe in his immediate impact. The bad news: I thought he was dramatically overdrafted and expect his NFL transition to be bumpy. Though he was drafted in the first round, the Falcons selected Walker before Pearce. Pearce could get better pass-rush opportunities and more sacks than Walker, as again, that's his skill set (whereas Walker is valuable for his versatility).

Pearce is a tough nut to crack. I'm inclined to fall back on my predraft evaluation of him and keep him somewhere in the second tier of candidates.

1. Mykel Williams, 49ers
2. Jalon Walker, Falcons
3. Abdul Carter, Giants
4. Shemar Stewart, Bengals
5. Maxwell Hairston, Bills
6. Travis Hunter, Jaguars
7. Mason Graham, Browns
8. James Pearce Jr., Falcons
9. Walter Nolen, Cardinals
10. Kenneth Grant, Dolphins
11. Jihaad Campbell, Eagles
12. Jahdae Barron, Broncos
13. Derrick Harmon, Steelers
14. Tyleik Williams, Lions
15. Malaki Starks, Ravens

Are there any remaining, intriguing sleepers? I'm glad you asked! Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger has exactly the profile we look for in a non-first-round candidate to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. He's an off-ball linebacker selected at the top of Round 2 (No. 33). He is a tackling machine, with 115 last season. He can create impact plays against the pass (three pass breakups and two interceptions). And he joins a Jim Schwartz-coached defense that wants linebackers to play fast and aggressive -- what Schwesinger does best.

The primary question is the snap count. Veteran Jordan Hicks is expected to fill one of the starting roles, and the opposite spot belongs to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. But Owusu-Koramoah suffered a serious neck injury in Week 8 of last season, and his status for the entire 2025 campaign is up in the air. By taking Schwesinger this early, the Browns seem to be signaling that they do not expect Owusu-Koramoah to be available.

If Schwesinger wins the starting job alongside Hicks, he'll suddenly become a strong candidate for the sort of high-volume season that gives second-round linebackers a path to this award.

For any Cowboys or Ravens fan looking for Donovan Ezeiruaku (No. 44 overall) or Mike Green (No. 59), respectively, I'm sorry, but this is something we just never see with this award. I know they were the top sack getters in the FBS last season, but the latest-drafted DROY was in 1986, when John Offerdahl won it from the 52nd pick. Since then, no player outside the top 40 has pulled it off.