Projecting top NFL rookies in 10 stat categories: Who will lead in receiving yards, rushing TDs and sacks?

It has been nearly a month since the 2025 NFL draft, and we now have a much better grasp of what each team will look like this season. That means we can start projecting expectations -- and stats -- for this year's batch of rookies.

Will anyone challenge Cam Ward in passing yards? How many rushing yards should we expect from early-round running backs such as Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton? What are reasonable outlooks for Travis Hunter on both offense and defense? And who will lead all defensive rookies in tackles and sacks?

Let's look at the top five projected leaders among rookies in a variety of statistical categories for the 2025 season. These team and player projections are my own, compiled through a process that is both quantitative (league, team, coaching and player trends) and qualitative (projected depth chart placement and role). Missed time due to injury is factored in, with running backs generally maxing out at 14 games and other positions at 15.

For full statistical outlooks, you can check out my projections page to sort and filter through the entire league. Both are updated often leading up to the start of the season.

Jump to stat leaders:
Passing | Rushing | Receiving | TDs
Tackles | Sacks | Interceptions

Passing yards and touchdowns

1. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 3,392 yards, 20 TDs (15 starts)
2. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 3,020 yards, 13 TDs (13 starts)
3. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 1,968 yards, 10 TDs (9 starts)
4. Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: 1,205 yards, 5 TDs (5 starts)
5. Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: 925 yards, 4 TDs (4 starts)

This is not one of the better quarterback classes in recent memory, with Ward as the only sure bet to start Week 1. As a second-round pick, Shough seemed like a relative long shot to pan out as the Saints' starter when he was selected, but Derek Carr's retirement suddenly positions the 25-year-old rookie as the favorite to lead the team in starts.

Dart will begin his career behind Russell Wilson and perhaps also Jameis Winston, but history suggests the No. 25 pick will make a Year 1 impact. From 2011 to 2024, 38 of 47 first-round QBs (81%) took over as the starter prior to Week 10. Twenty-three (49%) started in Week 1, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix last season. Of the seven QBs picked in the 20-32 range, six played as rookies and four took over before Week 5. Jordan Love was the only exception since he backed up Aaron Rodgers for three seasons.

There are 27 QBs who appeared in at least 14 games as a rookie since 2011. Excluding Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson -- who were used situationally as rushers -- that group averaged 3,455 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes. In 15 starts, Ward is right on par with that historical average.

In Cleveland, Gabriel and Sanders will compete with Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett for the Week 1 starting job. Both rookies figure to get some 2025 run because of the uncertainty surrounding Flacco and Pickett.

Receiving yards and touchdowns

1. Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers: 926 yards, 5 TDs
2. Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers: 889 yards, 6 TDs
3. Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars: 884 yards, 5 TDs
4. Jack Bech, Las Vegas Raiders: 747 yards, 4 TDs
5. Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans: 723 yards, 4 TDs

Like the QB class, there aren't as many impressive wide receivers in the 2025 group when compared to recent years. But we still had four selected in the first round and 10 more on Day 2.

As top-10 picks, both Hunter (No. 2) and McMillan (No. 8) are notably above the rest of the pack. Take a look at the production of the 14 wide receivers who were selected with a top-10 pick since 2011:

It's a small sample, but 13 of the 17 wideouts produced at least 865 yards. Tavon Austin, Corey Davis and Mike Williams (who all missed at least three games) are three of the exceptions, while Rome Odunze had to work behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen last season. This provides optimism that McMillan can reach 900 yards as a rookie, assuming quarterback Bryce Young sustains his improved play from late last season. Hunter is in a more unique situation since he's likely to also play some defense, but he's still a good bet to be a featured offensive target behind Brian Thomas Jr.

Golden (No. 23), Higgins (No. 34) and Bech (No. 58) all could easily start in Week 1. But the outlook for receivers selected after pick No. 20 through the third round is unspectacular. Since 2011, there are 148 receivers who fit that bill and played at least one snap as a rookie. Only 24 of them (16.2%) reached 800 receiving yards, and 24 (16.2%) caught at least seven touchdowns. This is something to keep in mind when considering the upside of all the Rounds 1 and 2 wide receivers.

First-round tight ends Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren are notable omissions from this list, but there's good reason. Only seven tight ends in NFL history have produced more than 750 receiving yards as a rookie.

Perhaps the recent success of Sam LaPorta (889 yards in 2023) and Brock Bowers (1,194 yards in 2024) means rookie tight ends will be more impactful going forward, but they could also be outliers. Also, Loveland will have to compete for targets with Moore, Odunze, fellow rookie Luther Burden III and Cole Kmet. Warren will need to overcome the Colts' potentially low-volume passing game with either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones under center.

Rushing yards and touchdowns

1. Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders: 1,120 yards, 7 TDs
2. Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers: 961 yards, 9 TDs
3. Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 947 yards, 7 TDs
4. Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns: 922 yards, 6 TDs
5. RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos: 841 yards, 5 TDs

The 2025 rookie RB class is one of the best we've seen in a while; it includes 25 draft picks, the most for the position since 2019. At the very minimum, the six backs selected in the first three rounds are likely to make a substantial impact this season.

That list includes No. 6 pick Jeanty, who will immediately slide in as Las Vegas' feature back. The past four backs selected in the top seven picks (Saquon Barkley, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette) all produced at least 260 carries, 950 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns as rookies. All four players did it in fewer than 17 games, too.

Reaching 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie isn't easy, but eight first-round RBs have had 225-plus carries in their first season since 2011 -- Jeanty should eclipse that number even if he misses a few games. Those eight backs all reached 950 rushing yards, averaging 1,230 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

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Chargers GM to McAfee: Omarion Hampton was a player we couldn't pass on

Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz talks with Pat McAfee about the decision to draft Omarion Hampton in the first round.

Hampton's outlook is not as rosy as Jeanty's, but it's still pretty strong. Since 2011, eight RBs have been selected in the back half of the first round. Five reached 800 rushing yards (Doug Martin, Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel and Clyde Edwards-Helaire), while the remaining three were limited to backup/situational roles (Mark Ingram, Rashaad Penny and David Wilson). Hampton will need to fend off newly acquired Harris for work, but the No. 22 pick will likely operate as the lead back in Jim Harbaugh's run-friendly scheme.

Day 2 picks Johnson, Judkins, Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson should also play major roles right out of the gate. Their production is a bit tricky to project, as we haven't seen a ton of high-end success from second- and third-round backs. Since 2011, only 13 of 74 RBs selected in Rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in Year 1. Fourteen of them reached six rushing touchdowns.

If this rookie running back class really is special, then we should expect more output from later picks. Johnson will likely be the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh. Judkins and Harvey figure to lead their respective backfields. And Henderson will share the New England backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson.

Touchdowns from scrimmage

1. Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: 11
2. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: 9
3. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 8
T-4. RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos: 7
T-4. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns: 7
T-4. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots: 7

Touchdowns by rookies have been on the decline, with fewer than 140 in three of the past four seasons. But the loaded RB class might get things back on track.

Over the past decade, 23 rookies have reached 10 touchdowns. Sixteen of those players were running backs, so it should be no surprise to see six backs on this list for 2025.

The aforementioned past four backs selected in the top seven (Barkley, Richardson, Elliott and Fournette) all produced at least 10 touchdowns as a rookie. So Jeanty reaching double-digit TDs would be on par with the historical production -- but I don't expect him to reach that mark. In fact, I have Hampton ahead of Jeanty in total touchdowns because the Chargers' offense will likely outscore the Raiders' unit over the course of the season. Los Angeles will likely score more rushing touchdowns, too.

The lack of wide receivers might seem confusing, but only 15 rookie WRs reached eight TDs in their first season over the past decade. While Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Jalen McMillan and Marvin Harrison Jr. met that mark in 2024, only four did from 2021 to 2023.

Tackles

1. Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens: 71
T-2. Nick Martin, LB, San Francisco 49ers: 58
T-2. Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos: 58
T-4. Andrew Mukuba, S, Philadelphia Eagles: 56
T-4. Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles: 56

Former Colts linebacker Shaquille Leonard's 163 tackles in 2018 were the most by a rookie over the past decade, and he is one of only three rookies (all picked in the first two rounds) to reach 125 during the span. Surprisingly, zero rookies have reached 100 tackles over the past two seasons. Giants safety Tyler Nubin (98) was the only player to clear 90 in 2024.

The tackle projections come in rather low this season, but there's some lingering uncertainty with certain rookies' roles. After news about Ar'Darius Washington tearing an Achilles, Starks has a clear path to an every-down role in Baltimore next to Kyle Hamilton. That's why he's far ahead of everyone else.

An off-ball linebacker usually leads the rookie class in tackles, but Campbell was the only one selected in the first round. He has to battle Zack Baun -- and Nakobe Dean, once he's back from a knee injury -- for snaps. Instead, Martin is our top projected tackler at the position, as the third-rounder should carve out a role next to Fred Warner in San Francisco. Second-rounder Demetrius Knight Jr. (Bengals) is a name to watch since he could have a bigger role if Germaine Pratt is traded.

Barron, the No. 20 pick, will immediately battle Riley Moss to start opposite Pat Surtain II in Denver. In Philadelphia, second-rounder Mukuba has a real shot to replace C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who was traded to the Texans.

Sacks

T-1. Abdul Carter, Edge, New York Giants: 6.0
T-1. Mykel Williams, Edge, San Francisco 49ers: 6.0
T-1. Jalon Walker, Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 6.0
T-4. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 5.0
T-4. Shemar Stewart, Edge, Cincinnati Bengals: 5.0

Rookies are averaging a total of 107.2 sacks per season over the past decade, with a high of 130.0 in 2019 and low of 71.5 in 2020 during that span. First-year players totaled a weak 84.5 sacks in 2024.

In fact, Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske led all first-years with 8.5 sacks last season, but only three others reached 5.0 (Miami's Chop Robinson and Denver's duo of Dondrea Tillman and Jonah Elliss). Micah Parsons' 13.0 sacks in 2021 were the most by a rookie over the past decade, and only four other freshmen reached double-digits in that span. Four of the five players to crack double-digit sacks were first-rounders, with fourth-round pick Maxx Crosby being the exception.

That's notable since the only five first-round edge rushers drafted in 2025 are listed above. None are expected to clear 6.5 sacks, yet their projections would rank in the top 20 among first-round picks over the past decade.

Carter, the No. 3 pick, might eventually emerge as one of the league's best defenders, but he will likely begin his career in a rotation with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Williams is in a good spot as Nick Bosa's likely running mate in San Francisco, while Walker and Pierce will quickly slide into a Falcons pass rush that finished with the second-fewest sacks in 2024 (31). And Stewart is set to replace the retired Sam Hubbard in Cincinnati.

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Stephen A. unleashes on Abdul Carter for asking to wear LT's No. 56

Stephen A. Smith gets fired up over Giants draft pick Abdul Carter asking to wear Lawrence Taylor's retired No. 56.

Interceptions

T-1. Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens: 2
T-1. Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos: 2
T-3. Andrew Mukuba, S, Philadelphia Eagles: 1
T-3. Xavier Watts, S, Atlanta Falcons: 1
T-3. Maxwell Hairston, CB, Buffalo Bills: 1
T-3. Nick Emmanwori, S, Seattle Seahawks: 1
T-3. Darien Porter, CB, Las Vegas Raiders: 1
T-3. Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals: 1
T-3. Trey Amos, CB, Washington Commanders: 1
T-3. Travis Hunter, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1
T-3. Upton Stout, CB, San Francisco 49ers: 1
T-3. Malachi Moore, S, New York Jets: 1

These always seem super low, and that's not by accident. Rookies are averaging a total of 42.2 interceptions per season over the past decade. There were 48 interceptions by first-year players in 2024, which tied for the second-highest mark in that span. But in four of the past six seasons, rookies combined for fewer than 40 INTs.

What's more surprising is that first-round rookies combined for only two interceptions last season -- the lowest total in well over a decade. Only six rookies have reached five INTs in the past decade, and Marcus Peters (eight) and Riq Woolen (six) were the only ones to eclipse that mark. Last season, Houston's Calen Bullock led all rookies with five INTs, with six others reaching three.