Pakistan Is in Trump’s Good Graces, but for How Long?

In his first term in office, President Trump accused Pakistan of offering the United States “nothing but lies and deceit.” He tried later to cool tensions, but officials in Washington kept accusing the country’s leadership of being soft on terrorism.

Now, in Mr. Trump’s second term, U.S. military officials have deemed a counterterrorism partnership with Pakistan as “phenomenal.” In recent weeks, the leader of its powerful military had a private lunch with Mr. Trump at the White House. And the president promised lucrative deals in minerals and oil — even though Pakistani officials are not sure where the “massive reserves” Mr. Trump talked about might be.

But it is clear that Pakistan has landed in Washington’s good books again, the latest turn in a relationship that has ebbed and flowed for decades. And it finds itself in a better position than its archrival India, which had nurtured ties with Mr. Trump but now faces U.S. tariffs of 50 percent. Pakistan came away with 19 percent.

“There’s a sudden warmth in the relationship that nobody was expecting,” said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and the United Nations.

That warmth relies in part on Pakistan giving Mr. Trump two quick wins early in his second term.

In March, it arrested a top Islamic State leader suspected of plotting a 2021 bombing in Kabul that killed more than 180 people, including 13 U.S. troops. The arrest earned Pakistan a mention in Mr. Trump’s address to Congress.

This spring, Pakistan said it would nominate Mr. Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his mediation in the latest conflict with India, even as New Delhi said Washington had played no role in a cease-fire.

A central character in the renewed relationship has been Pakistan’s army chief, Syed Asim Munir, who has taken on a more public role since the clash with India. This week, Field Marshal Munir attended the retirement ceremony of Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. military forces in the Middle East — his second high-level visit to the United States in less than two months. (Pakistan’s civilian leader, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has yet to meet Mr. Trump.)

And on Monday, the United States formally designated a separatist group in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province as a terrorist organization — a longstanding wish for the country’s security leadership.

Pakistan emerged in 2001 as an ally to the United States in its war in Afghanistan, but the relationship has been rocky. The 2011 U.S. killing of Osama Bin Laden, who was living near Islamabad, reinforced American suspicions that Pakistan had been playing a double game. And in Pakistan, many remain resentful of the United States, blaming it for destabilizing the region and turning their country into a target for terrorism that resulted in tens of thousands of deaths at home.

But Mr. Trump’s re-election offered a reset.

Pakistani officials pitched their country as a source of critical minerals and a hub for bitcoin mining. In April, a cryptocurrency venture backed by Mr. Trump signed a letter of intent with Pakistan’s crypto council during a visit to the country by its co-founders. They have also promised to import more from the United States, including cotton, and to offer U.S. businesses investment opportunities in mining projects.

Whether the rekindling of ties can yield long-term results is less clear, analysts say. Any deal on cryptocurrencies or critical minerals would take years to materialize.

“Aside from counterterroism cooperation, it’s not clear what Pakistan might be able to deliver in the near term,” said Elizabeth Threlkeld, a South Asia expert at the Stimson Center in Washington.

Mr. Trump’s stated plans to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves have only raised more questions.

“Unless Trump is aware of something that we don’t know of, it’s quite unclear what kind of reserves he’s talking about,” said Jauhar Saleem, the president of the Islamabad-based Institute for Regional Studies.

The close relationship between Pakistan and China might also impede warmer U.S. relations. China is the biggest trade partner for Pakistan, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi described both countries as “ironclad friends” when Field Marshal Munir visited China last month.

Their partnership has veered toward closer military cooperation with Pakistan buying Chinese aircraft and missiles, which it used to shoot down at least one Indian fighter jet in May. A few days before flying to Washington, Field Marshal Munir received 10 Chinese attack helicopters.

“The United States cannot match the investments China has made in Pakistan or the way it meets our defense and economic interests,” said Ms. Lodhi, the former Pakistani envoy. “The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has never been consistent.”

Other analysts questioned how long the warmer relations could last.

“There are benefits to being in Trump’s good papers — you praise him, he praises you,” said Husain Haqqani, another former Pakistani ambassador to the United States.

“But can America be a reliable ally with anybody? Modi had invested in his relationship with Trump, and look at now,” Mr. Haqqani added, referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. “Why would it be different with Pakistan?”