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Opta predicts Arsenal to finish as Champions League runners-up

Close up of Champions League ball being held by Arsenal player

Opta's supercomputer has Arsenal as second favourites to win this season's Champions League.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta's own power rankings. Both these areas are based on historical and recent team performances and the computer runs 10,000 simulations to create its predictions.

Having reached the semi-finals last time out, Mikel Arteta's side win the tournament in 18% of simulations, suggesting another strong campaign for the Gunners.

1 – Liverpool, 72.7%, 51.5%, 34%, 20.4%
2 – Arsenal, 68%, 44.8%, 27.6%, 16%
3 – PSG, 57.6%, 37.3%, 22.6%, 12.1%
4 – Manchester City, 54.6%, 31.9%, 18.6%, 8.4%
5 – Barcelona, 51.3%, 29.5%, 16.4%, 7.4%
6 – Chelsea, 51.3%, 30.8%, 15.1%, 7.1%
7 – Real Madrid, 46.7%, 24.8%, 12%, 5.8%
8 – Bayern Munich, 38.1%, 20%, 9.7%, 4.3%
9 – Inter Milan, 32.7%, 17.7%, 7.4%, 3%
10 – Newcastle United, 32.7%, 15.9%, 6.5%, 1.7%
11 – Benfica, 28.9%, 15.6%, 6.4%, 1.8%
12 – Napoli, 23%, 9.3%, 4.5%, 1.4%
13 – Tottenham Hotspur, 22.9%, 9.6%, 4.1%, 0.9%
14 – Borussia Dortmund, 19.8%, 7.1%, 2.6%, 0.9%
15 – Club Brugge, 16.8%, 6.4%, 2.4%, 0.9%
16 – Sporting Lisbon, 18.4%, 6.3%, 2.2%, 0.6%
17 – Bayer Leverkusen, 13%, 4.7%, 1.7%, 0.6%
18 – Atletico de Madrid, 17.4%, 5.2%, 1.7%, 0.6%
19 – Juventus, 15.7%, 5.6%, 2%, 0.6%
20 – Atalanta, 16.2%, 5.6%, 2%, 0.6%

The Gunners have the second-easiest draw according to Opta's power rankings, with only Copenhagen ranked to have a 'easier' league phase.

Therefore, the supercomputer has Arsenal reaching the quarter-finals in 68% of simulations, matching last season's run 44.8% of the time and going one step further to the final more than a quarter of the time.

Having played the most European Cup/Uefa Champions League games without ever lifting the trophy (211), they will be hoping to change that this time.

Opta ranks the likeliest threats to Arsenal as favourites Liverpool (20.4%), and PSG (12.1%).

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