Oil edges up despite murky economic outlook, potential OPEC+ supply hike

Synopsis

Oil prices saw a slight increase in early trading. However, trade talk uncertainties between the U.S. and China continue to weigh on the market. The prospect of OPEC+ potentially increasing supply adds to the gloom. Conflicting signals from Donald Trump and Beijing regarding trade progress are also impacting the market.

Oil prices inched up in early trade on Monday but remained dogged by uncertainty over trade talks between the U.S. and China clouding the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, while the prospect of OPEC+ raising its supply cast more gloom.

Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude nudged higher for a third session, up 9 cents by 0025 GMT to $66.96 and $63.11 a barrel, respectively.

"Absence of news is pushing oil prices modestly higher as traders are positioned short ahead of potential increased OPEC+ supply from the May 5 meeting and a significant production boost in the USA," Michael McCarthy, chief executive officer of online trading platform Moomoo Australia.

Some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to suggest that the group accelerates oil output hikes for a second consecutive month when they meet on May 5.

Expectations of oversupply and concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy caused Brent and WTI to fall by more than 1% last week.

The market has been rocked by conflicting signals from U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing over what progress was being made to de-escalate a trade war that threatens to sap global growth.

In the latest comment from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday did not back Trump's assertion that negotiations with China were under way. Earlier, Beijing denied any talks were taking place.

Many participants in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings said Trump's administration was still conflicted in its demands from trading partners hit with his sweeping tariffs.

Investors are also watching nuclear talks between Iran and the United States in Oman which continue this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he remained "extremely cautious" about the success of the negotiations.

In Iran, a powerful explosion at its biggest port of Bandar Abbas has killed at least 40, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday.

On Sunday, top officials in the Trump administration pressed Russia and Ukraine to make headway on a peace deal following a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Vatican a day earlier.

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