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Numbers Do Lie: 4 of fantasy baseball's most misleading stats so far this season

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy baseball categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

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Mason Miller’s 4.61 ERA is a lie

Miller’s 4.61 ERA is accompanied by a 1.53 SIERA, which is the second lowest among all pitchers. He ranks first in K% (47.3) and second in K-BB% (36.4). Miller has only been scored on during two of his 14 appearances, but one blowup is masking an otherwise dominant season like he had last year.

Miller has been the most difficult pitcher to make contact against in 2025 (his Whiff% is in the 100th percentile), but no one has allowed more hard hits when contact is made. Miller’s Hard-Hit% is in the first percentile, and he’s already allowed more than half as many Barrels (four) this season compared to all of 2024 in 100+ fewer batted balls. Miller’s Hard-Hit% was in the 92nd percentile last season, and his average exit velocity was in the 96th, so regression is coming.

The Athletics have provided the third most save opportunities, and Miller’s ERA is sure to drop steeply. Miller looks like the top fantasy closer moving forward.

Juan Soto’s 17 RBI are a lie

Soto may be heating up after hitting two homers Wednesday, but they were his first RBI in a week. Soto has recorded 109 RBI each of the past two seasons, but he’s on pace to finish with just 72 this year. Soto entered Wednesday with a higher wRC+ (135) at home than on the road (132), so his new home park hasn’t been to blame for the slow start.

Soto’s RBI production has been down thanks to sequencing and bad luck. His Statcast page remains bright red, and Soto’s K% (14.2) is actually a career low. But he’s batting just .138/.278/.276 with runners in scoring position (despite a 5:6 K:BB ratio) compared to .333/.438/.560 with the bases empty. Soto smashed a .345/.470/.672 line last year with RISP, so regression seems inevitable.

Soto’s RBI production will grow.

MacKenzie Gore’s two wins are a lie

Gore has been a revelation this season, and he’s deserved much better. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts (and four in the other) while sporting a 3.33 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (while ranking top 10 in innings pitched), but 42 pitchers have recorded more wins. The Nationals’ bullpen owns a mind-blowing 7.16 ERA that can only improve.

Moreover, Gore has pitched better than his other stats indicate, as his 3.33 ERA comes with a 2.37 SIERA that’s the lowest among 85 qualified starters. Gore also ranks first in K-BB% (29.4), with a mark that would be the best any starter has finished with since 2021 (Corbin Burnes). Five of Gore’s eight starts have come on the road, including in Coors Field and Great American Ballpark, so his schedule hasn’t been favorable either. Gore likely won’t start racking up wins while pitching in Washington, but the former No. 3 overall pick has finally emerged as an ace.

Jackson Holliday’s No. 407 fantasy rank is a lie

Holliday got off to a rough start with a .569 OPS over the first two weeks of the season, but he’s hit .333/.434/.533 with three homers and a steal over 16 games since. A revamped stance has helped Holliday’s resurrection, and he’s cut his K rate down 10% from his rookie campaign. Holliday is still just 21 years old, and he’s suddenly sporting a 120 wRC+. Holliday stated a desire to steal 30 bases before the season, and while he’s only recorded two, he’s attempted five SBs. His Sprint Speed is in the 89th percentile, so he’s certainly capable of contributing more steals moving forward. Holliday still struggles against lefties, but the former No. 1 overall pick has shown major growth in 2025.

Moreover, Oriole Park has been baseball’s most favorable hitter’s park this season. Of course it’s a tiny sample, but Baltimore has boosted homers for lefties by a staggering 105% so far in 2025. Holliday’s misleading fantasy rank will finish a lot higher.

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