Nuggets vs. Thunder Predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends, best bets for May 5

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

It’s Monday, May 5, and the Denver Nuggets (50-32) and Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are all set to square off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

The Denver Nuggets prevailed over the Los Angeles Clippers in game seven, 120-101. The role players carried the Nuggets to victory. Aaron Gordon scored 22 points, Christian Braun scored 21, and Russell Westbrook added 16.

The Thunder have been off since April 26th after sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Thunder and Nuggets split the season series 2-2, with the Nuggets winning the latest meeting 140-127.

The Nuggets are currently 24-17 on the road with a point differential of 4, while the Thunder have an 8-2 record in their last ten games at home.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder live today

• Date: Monday, May 5, 2025
• Time: 9:30PM EST
• Site: Paycom Center
• City: Oklahoma City, OK
• Network/Streaming: TNT, truTV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.

Game odds for Nuggets vs. Thunder

The latest odds as of Monday:

• Odds: Nuggets (+334), Thunder (-435)
• Spread: Thunder -9.5
• Over/Under: 225 points

That gives the Nuggets an implied team point total of 111.41, and the Thunder 116.36.

Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports’ Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!

Expert picks & predictions for Monday’s Nuggets vs. Thunder game

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

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Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) is parlaying Jalen Williams 20+ points and Thunder moneyline..

Thomas: “The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites tonight. The Nuggets are coming off a tough and physical seven-game series with the Thunder. Even in their victory, they weren’t great defensively in the series. I expect the Thunder to exploit them in game one.

Speaking of the Nuggets’ defense, they were 21st in defensive efficiency this season. They gave up 120 or more points to the Thunder in every game but one. Jalen Williams scored 20+ points in two of the four but left early with an injury in the fourth game.

The Nuggets will likely try to eliminate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s effectiveness. Williams has enough opportunities to score in bunches today with Aaron Gordon on SGA.”

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Nuggets & Thunder game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Denver Nuggets on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Denver Nuggets at +9.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 225.

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Nuggets vs. Thunder on Monday

• The Thunder have won four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record
• Four of Oklahoma City’s last five home games have stayed under the total
• Oklahoma City have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 games as home favourites

Rust could be a factor for the Thunder in this game after their extended break, but they will certainly be a lot fresher than the Nuggets, who have come through a gruelling series with plenty of travelling against the Clippers. OKC looked great against the Grizzlies and can make a fast start.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)