NFL betting odds, lines: 3 rule changes that could affect wagering strategy

Before each NFL season, as a professional bettor, I have a few essential tasks. I update a list of beat writers for every team to gain an edge on team or player injury information before the market reacts.

I aggregate scoring outcomes from the past three seasons and update my key numbers charts and corresponding line-movement values.

Advertisement

Finally, I review every rule change and predict its impact on the game.

There are three NFL rule changes worth examining before the start of the season to see how they might affect play on the field and our betting. Let's take a look at them.

Dynamic kickoff rule: touchbacks to the 35-yard line

The NFL has been adjusting touchback yardage for the past decade. In 2016, kickoff touchbacks were moved from the 20-yard line to the 25-yard line to reduce kick returns in favor of player safety. As this rule took effect, teams consistently opted for touchbacks, and the return rate dropped so sharply the play became largely a formality to start a drive.

Advertisement

Last season, the NFL moved touchbacks from the 25-yard line to the 30-yard line to encourage more returns. The impact was minimal, with only about a 10% increase in return rates. Still, more than two-thirds of kickoffs were downed in the end zone, with drives starting at the 30-yard line.

This season, the NFL is advancing touchbacks another five yards, with drives now starting at the 35-yard line. The league has placed the onus on kickers to avoid blasting the ball into the end zone and instead aim to land it inside the 10-yard line, forcing the return team to run it out.

Betting impact: Increasing field position will directly increase scoring

Advertisement

I believe this change will absolutely increase scoring totals. Drives will often start at the 35-yard line, now just two first downs away from attempting a long field goal. Even if the average starting position for returns remains similar, the likelihood of a return advancing directly into scoring position — or resulting in a touchdown — increases, as does the chance of a return turnover. With more returns, turnovers will likely rise in volume, giving the opposing team possession in high-value scoring territory.

The extent to which these changes will boost scoring remains to be seen, but it’s hard to envision any scenario where scoring decreases because of this. The betting edge likely lies in targeting overs and against-the-spread plays on teams with strong special-teams units. Somewhere, Devin Hester wishes he was still in his prime to capitalize on these rules.

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

For reference, last season KaVontae Turpin (Dallas Cowboys), Raheem Blackshear (Carolina Panthers), and Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders) led the league in kickoff return yards. Deebo Samuel, now with the Commanders after moving from the 49ers this offseason, ranked fifth. Expect Washington to excel in this area. Washington and Dallas will play two divisional games. I expect the market to move over from the initial pricing, and I expect the special-teams touchdown and turnover markets to take some steam on "Yes" in a long-shot prop market. If that game is priced similarly to other matchups, an edge certainly exists.

Advertisement

Expanded replay assist

The expanded replay-assist rules allow replay officials, who monitor the game from the booth rather than on the field, to overturn incorrect flags. If an incorrect flag is thrown for a face-mask, horse-collar tackle, tripping, running into or roughing the kicker, or hitting a defenseless player, replay officials can quickly determine the play did not warrant a penalty.

These reviews are limited to “clear and obvious” situations, as defined by the league. However, "clear and obvious" missed calls cannot be upgraded to penalties. The expanded replay assist can only remove unnecessary flags, not add them.

The betting impact: May very slightly and situationally reduce scoring

Advertisement

This benefits the defense and its impact can only slightly reduce scoring, as some 15-yard automatic first downs will be reversed.

I suspect this will occur less than once per game, resulting in a neutral to minimal impact. However, it’s worth noting the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in penalties against and penalty yards against last season. The Houston Texans and New York Jets ranked second and third, respectively. These rankings are unsurprising, as these teams play highly physical defense, and this trend may continue this season. Among these teams, only the Jets changed their coaching staff, bringing in Aaron Glenn, who emphasizes increased physicality.

There may be live betting opportunities to exploit here. If you see a call you believe will be overturned, negating a first down and yardage, quickly bet the under or the defensive team against the spread or money line to gain an edge.

Thursday night flex scheduling requirements reduced by a week

Thursday Night Football matchups can sometimes be a grueling, slow-burn watch. In 2022, when Amazon Prime took over the TNF stream, the Colts played at the Broncos on Oct. 6. This game was expected to be a decent matchup at the start of the season, with Matt Ryan leading the Indianapolis Colts and Russell Wilson newly traded to the Denver Broncos. However, it was clear by game time that both teams were underperforming and lackluster. The result: no touchdowns, overtime and a 12-9 Colts win, driven by seven field goals. The aftermath saw an uproar of fan complaints.

Advertisement

The NFL has made a clear effort to schedule better games in prime-time slots. This season, they introduced a rule allowing the league to flex Thursday Night Football matchups with just three weeks’ notice, down from a month.

Betting impact: Bet more lookahead spots and target home-team ATS and unders in flexed games

Combining this adjustment with the fact that sportsbooks price every NFL game in advance and offer widely available look-ahead lines, there may be edges to exploit when flex-schedule changes are announced. When news of a flex-schedule drops, check for rest or travel disparities in the updated matchups and target unders. Ensure the listed game date has changed and the odds are updated, as bets placed before the reschedule may be voided. I suspect most sportsbooks will simply adjust the date and retain the same odds, creating actionable betting opportunities.