Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview: 2025 NBA Playoffs prediction, schedule, who to watch

Oklahoma City was expected to be here before the season even tipped off. Minnesota traded fan favorite Karl-Anthony Towns away for Julius Randle right before the season — in a trade all about saving money — but they are back in the Western Conference Finals for the second straight year. And they may be better this time around.

When does the Timberwolves vs. Thunder begin?

Denver travels to Oklahoma City for Game 1 of the series on Tuesday, May 20, with an 8:30 ET tip-off. The rest of the series goes every other day after that.

Denver vs. Oklahoma City Playoffs Schedule 2025

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary)
Game 1: Timberwolves vs. Thunder; Tues., May 20 (8:30 ET, ESPN)
Game 2: Timberwolves vs. Thunder; Thurs., May 22 (8:30 ET, ESPN)
Game 3: Thunder vs. Timberwolves; Sat., May 24 (8:30 ET, ABC)
Game 4: Thunder vs. Timberwolves; Mon., May 26 (8:30 ET, ESPN)
Game 5: Timberwolves vs. Thunder; Wed., May 28 (8:30 ET, ESPN)*
Game 6: Thunder vs. Timberwolves; Fri., May 30 (8:30 ET, ESPN)*
Game 7: Timberwolves vs. Thunder; Sun., June 1 (8 ET, ESPN)*

Players to watch

Jalen Williams

After scoring 20 points or more in all four of Oklahoma City’s games against the Grizzlies in the first round, he struggled against the Nuggets. Shooting 37.5 percent from the field, J-Dub averaged 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.3 three-pointers per game. While Williams came through in Sunday’s Game 7 victory, scoring 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting, consistent production will be critical against the red-hot Timberwolves. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander likely being occupied with Jaden McDaniels, Williams’ productivity will be key if the Thunder are to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012.
—Raphielle Johnson, Rotoworld basketball analyst

Rudy Gobert

After spending the first two series matched up with Jaxson Hayes and Trayce Jackson-Davis, Gobert is set to have a much tougher matchup in the conference finals. He’ll have to deal with both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren while still helping out on drives from OKC’s guards, specifically Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Outside of having 27 points and 24 rebounds in Minnesota’s Game 5 closeout win over the Lakers, Gobert hasn’t had many strong performances during this postseason. However, this series will be a more important matchup for him. SGA is second to Cade Cunningham with 19.5 drives per game during the playoffs, and as a team, OKC leads all teams in passes out of drives during the postseason with 22.4 per game. However, if the defense cracks, those passes will become layups instead. Gobert is going to have to dominate the paint during this series for Minnesota to advance to the Finals for the first time in franchise history.
—Noah Rubin, Rotoworld basketball analyst

Keys to watch for in Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City

Turnovers

Minnesota gets a little loose with the ball and has a propensity for turning it over; they did so on 13% of their possessions in the regular season (10th highest percentage in the league). In the playoffs, that has jumped up slightly to 13.6%. No team has forced more turnovers in the playoffs than the Thunder, doing so on 15.7% of opponent possessions.

Ask Denver what happens when you turn the ball over against the Thunder.

The Timberwolves have to take care of the ball in the face of the most on-ball pressure and steal-happy team in the league. Things will turn quickly and get ugly if they don’t, and Minnesota can’t afford to give away games in this series.

Lu Dort on Anthony Edwards

This is so much fun. Dort is one of (if not THE) best on-ball defenders in the league, he is physical and disruptive. Anthony Edwards is the All-NBA engine of the Timberwolves’ offense and a guy who can pull up and knock down the 3 or be physical attacking the rim. This is a matchup for the ages.

Minnesota will make a point of trying to switch Dort off of Ant, but there are two challenges with that: 1) Nobody in the league fights over screens and sticks with his assigned man like Dort; 2) There are no pigeons in the OKC core rotation, there is not some easy target to switch on to and attack. Edwards could try to go after Holmgren, but he has the length and speed to challenge shots at the rim or the arc.

Julius Randle/Chet Holmgren

Which big man gives his lead guard enough support?

Randle has done that this postseason, averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists a game. It took time (most of the season) for Randle to figure out how to play off Ant and next to Rudy Gobert, but when he did, it supercharged the Timberwolves.

This is a much better matchup for Holmgren, with Daigneault likely going with him as the only big for extended stretches (something that he couldn’t do as much against Jokic). Holmgren is averaging 15.7 points and 9.7 rebounds a game, plus 2.2 blocks a night in these playoffs, but the Thunder are hoping to get more out of him in this series.
—Kurt Helin, NBC Sports lead NBA writer

Predictions

Jay Croucher (NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst): Thunder in 6

This series may be Anthony Edwards’ reckoning. Oklahoma City will force Edwards to make sped-up decisions, and Edwards hasn’t proved he can problem solve at the highest level (4.5 assists per game to 3.2 turnovers per game this season). Minnesota has a turnover issue and OKC’s defense is one of the greatest of all time at creating and punishing turnovers.

Drew Dinsick (NBC Sports Betting Analyst): Thunder in 4

I’m looking at a Thunder sweep as the most likely result in the Western Conference Finals and have them around an 87% to advance to the NBA Finals. This is a perfect matchup for them on both sides of the ball, in my opinion, and I am most interested to see if Daigneault continues to use the double-big lineup or elects to go small to put Gobert in harm’s way. The defensive matchups for the Thunder against the Wolves’ offense, and Ant in particular, look ideal, and projecting a rating in the 104s for Minnesota this series.

Kurt Helin (NBC Sports lead NBA writer): Thunder in 6

I never would have thought I’d type this sentence, but here we are: Minnesota is better this season with Randle instead of Towns. This is a balanced, athletic, big and physical team. This is also just a bad matchup for them. For me, it comes back to turnovers, the Timberwolves are going to cough the ball up too much under pressure to beat a Thunder team that is hitting its stride.