March Madness 2025: Which low seeds have the best chances of pulling a huge first-round upset?

Will the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament produce a massive upset? The odds of it happening may be better than you think.

Five of the last six NCAA tournaments have included at least one No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed losing in the first round. And that stretch includes two No. 16 over No. 1 upsets.

In 2018, UMBC made tournament history with its win over No. 1 Virginia. In 2021, No. 15 Oral Roberts beat No. 2 Ohio State and No. 14 Abilene Christian took down No. 3 Texas. Three years ago, No. 15 St. Peter’s made its miraculous run to the Elite Eight after beating No. 2 Kentucky.

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In 2023, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson beat No. 1 Purdue and No. 15 Princeton advanced to the Sweet 16 after beating No. 2 Arizona. A year ago, No. 14 Oakland became a March Madness darling when it beat No. 3 Kentucky.

Which high seed could find itself on the ropes early this year? Let’s take a look at the betting odds to figure out who’s most at risk.

No. 1 Auburn (-32.5) vs. No. 16 Alabama State

Alabama State needed a last-second Hail Mary to knock out St. Francis PA in the First Four on Tuesday night. Its reward is a game against the No. 1 overall seed. The 32.5-point spread is the highest of any first round game and the moneyline isn’t even available to bet at BetMGM.

No. 1 Houston (-29.5) vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville

SIUE finished second in the Ohio Valley Conference during the regular season before winning the tournament. Houston is a No. 1 seed for the third straight NCAA tournament and is looking to advance to at least the Elite Eight for the first time in that span. SIUE’s odds of pulling the upset at +3300, meaning you’d earn $330 on a $10 bet.

No. 1 Florida (-28.5) vs. No. 16 Norfolk State

The Gators have become a trendy national title pick after closing the regular season strong and beating Missouri, Alabama and Tennessee to win the SEC tournament. Norfolk State has been a giant killer before — it beat No. 2 seed Missouri as a No. 15 seed in one of the biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history in 2012 — but its odds are also +3300 to win this game outright.

No. 2 Alabama (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Robert Morris

Alabama’s Grant Nelson is expected to return for the NCAA tournament after suffering an injury in the SEC tournament. However, he may not play against Robert Morris on Friday. The Crimson Tide shouldn’t need him. Robert Morris is +1900 to win.

No. 2 Tennessee (-18.5) vs. No. 15 Wofford

The Vols may be the best defensive team in the country and this game is going to be played at a very slow pace. Can that help Wofford? Both teams are outside the top 330 in adjusted tempo in KenPom.com’s data. The Terriers are +1250 to win.

No. 2 St. John’s (-18.5) vs. No. 15 Omaha

The Red Storm are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019 and are playing a first round game for the first time since 2015. Omaha will need to unlock St. John’s suffocating defense to have a chance and is +1200 to win.

No. 2 Michigan State (-17.5) vs. No. 15 Bryant

If you’re looking for an upset of a top-two seed, Bryant has the best odds of getting it done. The Bulldogs are +1050 to win and average over 82 points per game. They’re also led by Phil Martelli Jr., the son of the longtime St. Joseph’s coach.

No. 3 Wisconsin (-17.5) vs. No. 14 Montana

Montana is also +1050 to beat the Badgers and are one of the most efficient 2-point shooting teams in college basketball. Montana shoots 59% on shots inside the arc and is second in the country in field goal percentage overall at 50% despite shooting just 36% from deep.

No. 3 Texas Tech (-14.5) vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington

The Seahawks are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017 despite winning at least 20 games in each of the past four seasons under Takayo Siddle. They’re tasked with slowing down one of the best offenses in the country to pull the upset. UNCW is +850 to win.

No. 3 Iowa State (-14.5) vs. No. 14 Lipscomb

The Bisons are the highest-ranked No. 14 seed or lower in KenPom’s rankings at No. 82 and closed the season on a six-game win streak. Iowa State won’t have Keshon Gilbert in the NCAA tournament but Tamin Lipsey should return. Lipscomb could be worth a flier at +800.

No. 3 Kentucky (-11.5) vs. No. 14 Troy

Could Kentucky lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament for the third time in four seasons? Last year’s first-round exit led to John Calipari’s departure and Troy has the lowest odds of any team on this list at +500 to get the win. The Trojans won their three Sun Belt tournament games by double-digits and if they get a win on Friday, it’ll likely be in a drastically different style to Oakland and Jack Gohlke a season ago.

Gohlke was 10-of-20 on 3-point attempts in that game. Troy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country at 29.9%.