Lessons learned: Why Auburn is one of college football’s most unpredictable teams

After a 5-7 season in 2024, Auburn will look to turn things around. The Tigers addressed some needs with a highly touted transfer portal class and another Top-10 recruiting class, but there are still question marks.

In fact, Josh Pate listed Auburn as one of the most unpredictable teams in college football this year. He pointed out last year’s issues, particularly with turnovers, and the lack of success in one-score games – specifically the Cal, Oklahoma and Missouri games.

As for whether that record will immediately flip in 2024, Pate said that’s not necessarily the case. That’s why it’s hard to project how Auburn will perform this season.

“They invented ways to lose games last year,” Pate said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “There is a school of thought out there that is flawed that anytime that happens to you one year, it magically inverts the next year. … That’s not how the world works. That’s not how the universe actually operates. If I had a bad day yesterday, my day the next day could suck.

“What you hope is, you learned lessons from the bad times and you applied them and you course corrected. That’s why the good times follow. But if they didn’t correct – or in this case, if they went and got the wrong quarterback out of the portal in Jackson Arnold – it’s going to blow up again. They’ve got a good roster. They’ve got four recruiting classes stacked on top of each other. Two of them were Top 10. They’ve got the No. 7 portal class there. They play five of my Top 25 teams in the country, though, in the first seven games.”

Josh Pate: Auburn ‘better have it figured out’

Auburn will open the season against Baylor before non-conference games against Ball State and South Alabama. The Bears will present a tough test out of the gate, as will the start of SEC play. Auburn has three Preseason Top 25-ranked teams in its first conference games, starting with road games at Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

As a result, there’s not much room for a slow start. That adds to the uncertainty around Auburn and creates more unpredictability.

“You’d better have it figured out. This is not a situation like the Ole Miss schedule where you’ve got a whole month in the front half of your season to figure things out. No, that’s not Auburn. Auburn could be a Playoff team, Auburn could miss a bowl game and neither would surprise me.”