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Leaked chart reveals winners and losers in California’s Democratic gerrymander

More details on California Democrats’ proposed overhaul to the state congressional map are coming to light in advance of the official release of the new boundaries.

State lawmakers were briefed Wednesday evening on the expected partisan tilt of all 52 congressional districts, providing the clearest view yet of which Republican districts they are targeting. The changes, which are not yet final, were detailed in a chart obtained by POLITICO and confirmed by multiple legislators and staffers.

  • CD-1, the rural northeastern corner of the state represented by Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, transforms from safe Republican to safe Democratic

  • CD-3, a sprawling district along California’s eastern border represented by GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley, goes from safe Republican to safe Democratic

  • CD-9, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder’s northern Central Valley district, moves from lean Democratic to safe Democratic

  • CD-13, a Central Valley seat narrowly won last year by Democratic Rep. Adam Gray, changes from lean Republican to safe Democratic

  • CD-27, a northern Los Angeles County seat held by Democratic Rep. George Whitesides, moves from lean Democratic to safe Democratic

  • CD-41, a battleground seat held by GOP Rep. Ken Calvert, transforms from safe Republican to safe Democratic

  • CD-45, which Democratic Rep. Derek Tran won last year in the most expensive race in the country, goes from lean Democratic to safe Democratic

  • CD-47, an Orange County district represented by Democratic Rep. Dave Min, moves from lean Democratic to safe Democratic

  • CD-48, which spans Riverside and San Diego counties and is held by GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, changes from safe Republican to lean Democratic.

The new maps could also see more Democrats added into the Central Valley district of GOP Rep. David Valadao, who has already been able to defy gravity in a seat with a Democratic registration advantage.


Gov. Gavin Newsom, speaking to reporters after he kicked off the campaign to give voters final approval over the still-unreleased districts, teased their imminent debut.

"People are eager to see the maps,” he said. “We anticipate that these maps will completely neuter and neutralize what is happening in Texas."

Republicans are already denouncing the move. The nine-member California Republican House delegation released a joint statement Thursday pointing to the newest POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey which found strong bipartisan majorities prefer district lines be drawn by an independent commission than lawmakers.

“Governor Newsom is trying to grab power away from the citizens on the commission and give it to Sacramento politicians to gerrymander their own districts,” the statement said. “Our delegation will stand with the citizens of California and defend their rights as they stand today in our state constitution by opposing Newsom’s ballot measure. All Californians, regardless of their political affiliation, should vote NO on this attempt to eliminate the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission’s ability to draw fair congressional districts.”

The unveiling of the maps as soon as Friday sets the stage for a week-long sprint through the Legislature. Legislators must approve a constitutional amendment to be approved by the voters, as well as companion bills to put the maps in statute as well address the cost of the special election and other logistics.

The bills are expected to be heard by the elections committees in both houses on Tuesday and appropriations committees on Wednesday before final floor votes on Thursday. The breakneck speed means that none of the measures can be amended without facing a delay under the 72-hour rule.

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