Jimmy Lai’s Freedom May Now Hinge on Beijing and Trump

The landmark trial of Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong media mogul and prominent democracy campaigner, wrapped up on Thursday. But whether or not he is freed may depend more on a political decision than a legal one.

The question hanging over the case is not so much whether the city’s courts will convict him — in national security cases, they almost always do. It is whether China, under pressure from foreign governments, will decide there is more to gain from keeping the outspoken publisher locked up or from letting him go.

Mr. Lai, 77, who appeared in court this week looking thinner and tired after years behind bars, has become a symbol of how free speech has been crushed in Hong Kong since Beijing imposed a national security law on the city five years ago to quash unrest. His lawyers finished their legal arguments on Thursday, but the three national security judges are expected to take months to issue their verdict, which could send him to prison for life.

“We are done, then,” the judges said on Thursday morning, adding that the parties would be informed of the verdict “in good time.”

Diplomats, reporters and supporters of Mr. Lai filled the courtroom in the final days of a trial that began in late 2023, highlighting the international scrutiny to which his case has been subjected. Court employees warned those sitting in the public gallery not to show him support, but many made heart shapes with their hands as he entered. The verdict will be followed closely by the United States and by Britain, where Mr. Lai holds citizenship.

Mr. Lai smiled and waved to family members and other supporters as he entered the courtroom, and as he left.