How Redistricting Wars Could Give the G.O.P. Up to 7 Seats

As Republicans in Texas and Democrats in California strong-arm their way toward redrawing congressional maps, it can be dizzying to keep up.

One way to understand what’s happening is to ask a simple question: Which party will come out ahead?

But with President Trump fretting that Democrats could gain control of the House after next year’s elections, Republican state legislators are frantically trying to gerrymander the maps to give themselves more of a cushion. And Democrats are scrambling to respond.

The result? If everything goes according to plan — a big if — Republicans could gain six or seven seats, putting the House farther out of reach for Democrats. Here’s how:

In Progress

Texas

A new congressional map advanced in the Texas Senate on Thursday, and Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, is expected to sign it on Monday. Republicans — who now hold 25 seats, versus 12 for the Democrats (expected to be 13, once a vacant seat in Houston is filled in November) — want to add five seats.

The targeted districts are:

• Ninth District near Houston, represented by Al Green

• 32nd District near Dallas, Julie Johnson

• 35th District, stretching between San Antonio and Austin, Greg Casar

• 34th District along the Gulf of Mexico, Vicente Gonzalez

• 28th District between the Rio Grande and San Antonio, Henry Cuellar

Sam Wang, a professor at Princeton University who leads the school’s Gerrymandering Project, wrote in a blog post Friday that Texas “stands alone as the most extreme manipulation of electoral boundaries in modern American history.”

California

Mr. Wang also wrote that California’s map could be “nearly as bad as Texas’.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat and potential 2028 presidential candidate, signed a package of bills on Thursday to counteract Texas that would redraw several districts in the state. Voters must approve the plan through a special election to be held on Nov. 4.

Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, identified three redrawn districts in which Republican incumbents would be considered considerable underdogs:

• Third District, which hugs the Nevada border from Death Valley to the Sacramento suburbs, Rep. Kevin Kiley

• First District in the northeastern corner, Doug LaMalfa

• 41st in Southern California, which includes Palm Springs and most of the Coachella Valley, Ken Calvert

Democrats would also be slightly favored in two additional districts:

• 48th District, which is east of San Diego and includes the Temecula Valley, Darrell Issa

• 22nd District, including parts of Bakersfield and the San Joaquin Valley, David Valadao

If Democrats flip all five, they would control 48 seats. Republicans would have four.

In Discussion

Indiana

Despite pressure from the White House, Republican legislators in Indiana are divided over whether to redraw the maps to pad their 7-2 partisan advantage in their House delegation.

If they do proceed, they would most likely zero in on:

• First District in the purplish northwestern corner of the state, Frank Mrvan

In a more aggressive scenario, they could also target:

• Seventh District, including Indianapolis, André Carson

Missouri

After President Trump said Thursday on Truth Social that Missouri “is IN” to redraw maps for its eight congressional seats in a special legislative session, a spokeswoman for Gov. Mike Kehoe, a Republican, indicated that state leaders were examining options to “best represent Missourians.”

The goal, Missouri Republicans have indicated, is to squeeze out Representative Emanuel Cleaver, who represents the Fifth district, around Kansas City.

Ohio

One thing is certain: Ohio will redraw its maps before the end of the year, because it has to. The action is the result of a protracted legal battle involving the State Supreme Court, as well as a controversial ballot initiative last year.

How they will redraw them is another question. Some Republicans are confident their 10-5 advantage in the House could become 12-3 after the 2026 midterm elections by targeting:

• 13th District, including Akron-Canton and southern suburbs of Cleveland, Emilia Sykes

• Ninth District, including the Toledo area, Marcy Kaptur

Maybe

Florida

Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said Wednesday that he wanted President Trump to fix alleged errors in the U.S. Census, which he believes has deprived Florida of an additional congressional seat. If that happens, the state could redraw its maps to remove one or more of the eight seats currently held by Democrats. Mr. DeSantis said any redistricting efforts were likely to focus on seats in South Florida.

In preparation, Daniel Perez, the Republican speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, is forming a redistricting committee, which is expected to start its work in October.

Any others?

For all the talk, from mostly Democratic governors, that states will engage in a redistricting arms race, the reality is that these moves appear increasingly unlikely because of an array of legal and procedural challenges. These states include Illinois, Maryland and New York.

For now, anyway.

Julie Bosman, J. David Goodman Patricia Mazzei, Laurel Rosenhall, Mitch Smith and Billy Witz contributed reporting.