TipRanks
Fri, Jun 27, 2025, 10:25 AM 4 min read
In This Article:
Nike (NKE) is expected to report results on its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, June 26, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm EDT. What to watch for:
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GUIDANCE: In March, Nike forecast fourth quarter revenue down in the low- to mid-teens, with gross margin down 400-500 basis points. The company commented that the macroeconomic environment is “challenging,” but President and CEO Elliott Hill said “The progress we made against the ‘Win Now’ strategic priorities we committed to 90 days ago reinforces my confidence that we are on the right path.”
Given the ongoing pressure from Nike’s “Win Now” turnaround efforts and the macro volatility, Truist expects the management to provide a fairly-pessimistic Q1 outlook and to continue to hold off on providing FY26 projections, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says it remains cautious on Nike heading into fiscal Q4 earnings report. It expects ongoing “franchise life cycle management,” a return to wholesale, tariffs, and China risk will weigh on the company’s fiscal 2026 performance.
TROUGH FOR REVENUE DECLINES: Evercore ISI says that while Q4 was likely the trough for Nike’s revenue and gross margin declines, it sees little incentive for management to offer any optimistic commitments with its initial fiscal 2026 commentary given “multiple new unknowns” since the company last commented on fiscal 2026, including tariffs and China brand issues. Evercore cut its fiscal 2026 earnings per share estimate to $1.50, below the Street’s $1.88, citing the near-term risks that Nike will likely embed in its commentary. Whether Nike pushes consensus as low as $1.50 per share “is less important on the eve of finding out the consumer’s response to tariff-driven price increases across the wardrobe,” contends the firm. It thinks the near-term stock driver will be whether Nike reiterates comments from the Q3 call that Q4 was the trough for revenue.
CONSENSUS ‘TOO HIGH’: Morgan Stanley sees room for Q4 EPS upside, but cautions it also believes the Street FY26 EPS consensus is “too high.” Estimates that are too high plus a lack of positive demand and innovation feedback from the channel leaves the firm “slightly more negative on our Equal-weight rating,” though “seemingly bearish sentiment may mean any bright spots are rewarded,” the analyst tells investors in a preview.
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