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Greg McElroy reveals his 2025 College Football Playoff projections

The 2025 college football season officially kicks off with Saturday’s Big 12 Top 25 matchup between No. 22 Iowa State and No. 17 Kansas State from Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. So, with games returning this weekend, ESPN and SEC Network analyst Greg McElroy took a stab at projecting how the upcoming season will end in the 2025 College Football Playoffs.

The former Alabama quarterback expects the Big Ten will once again be the only Power conference with four Playoff representatives, highlighted by projected league champion and top-overall seed Penn State leading the pack. McElroy also expects Ohio State, Oregon and USC will work their way into the second 12-team Playoff field thanks to their high-powered offenses.

McElroy projects a trio of SEC teams will once again make the Playoff, led by 2025 conference champion Texas and followed by SEC runner-up Crimson Tide and Georgia, which makes the CFP for the fifth consecutive season. Clemson and Miami make the field after battling it out for the ACC title, while Notre Dame and Liberty earn at-large bids along with Big 12 champion Utah.

Check out how McElroy sees the 2025 College Football Playoff field playing out below:

First-round byes

James Franklin, Penn StateJames Franklin, Penn State (Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)

1. Penn State (Big Ten champion)
2. Clemson (ACC champion)
3. Ohio State
4. Texas (SEC champion)

McElroy is all-in on Penn State as the Big Ten champions and top overall seed in the 2025 College Football Playoff after going 12-1 in the regular season, avenging its only loss at Ohio State in Indianapolis. McElroy sees a similar path for ACC champion and second-seeded Clemson, which also goes 12-1 during the regular season with its only loss coming in road games at Louisville and rival South Carolina.

Ohio State backs into a Top 4 seed with an 11-2 record despite losing the Big Ten championship and one regular-season game from within the foursome of Texas, Washington, Penn State or a fifth-straight loss in “The Game” vs. Michigan. McElroy is a believer of the Longhorns, who he projects to finish 11-2 with a victory in Atlanta, with two regular-season losses from within the murder’s row of road games at Ohio State, Florida, and Georgia or in one of its two intense rivalry games vs. Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

First-round games

Marcus Freeman, Notre DameMarcus Freeman, Notre Dame (Matt Cashore-Imagn Images)

No. 5 Notre Dame over No. 12 Liberty
No. 6 Alabama over No. 11 USC
No. 10 Miami over No. 7 Oregon
No. 8 Georgia over No. 9 Utah

McElroy is betting on another strong season for Notre Dame, which locks up the No. 5 seed — the highest it can achieve as an independent — at 10-2 “at worst” in the regular season. The Fighting Irish would then host undefeated and 12th-seeded Liberty, which claims the final at-large bid as the highest-ranked Group of Five champ out of Conference USA.

The former Alabama QB expects a return to double-digit regular-season wins for his alma mater, but a loss to Texas in the SEC Championship game drops the Crimson Tide to the sixth-seed and a home game vs. 11th-seeded USC. McElroy is also high on Miami and new QB Carson Beck, projecting the 10th-seeded Hurricanes upset No. 7-seeded Oregon in Eugene. The fourth first-round Playoff game will take place in Athens, where a 10-2 Georgia avenges last year’s quarterfinal loss by knocking off Big 12 champion Utah.

Quarterfinals

 Matt Pendleton-Imagn ImagesAlabama coach Kalen DeBoer (Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports)

No. 1 Penn State over No. 8 Georgia
No. 2 Clemson over No. 10 Miami
No. 6 Alabama over No. 3 Ohio State
No. 4 Texas over No. 5 Notre Dame

Outside of the Miami upset of Oregon, McElory is going all chalk with his first-round projections, and expects much the same in the quarterfinal round on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The only upset McElroy envisions happening is likely in a Sugar Bowl nightcap between sixth-seeded Alabama and No. 3-seed Ohio State, which loses its bid as repeat national champions in New Orleans.

McElroy expects the top-seeded Nittany Lions utilize its powerful run game to roll over the eighth-seeded Bulldogs in the Rose Bowl to make its second-straight CFP semifinal. In an all-ACC Orange Bowl quarterfinal, McElroy predicts the No. 2 seed Tigers will once again take down Miami like it did in the ACC title game. The final quarterfinal matchup in McElroy’s projection would be the first played in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Eve, as the SEC champion Longhorns end Notre Dame’s playoff run in Dallas.

Semifinals

Many predict Clemson will make the College Football Playoff this season, but here's a scenario why they won't.Dabo Swinney, Clemson (Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images)

No. 4 Texas over No. 1 Penn State
No. 2 Clemson over No. 6 Alabama

McElroy goes against chalk with his Fiesta Bowl national semifinal matchup, predicting Arch Manning and the fourth-seeded Longhorns will knock off top-overall seeded Nittany Lions. In this scenario, McElroy envisions Texas taking advantage of a late-game mistake by Penn State and Manning leading a last-minute drive to set up a game-winning field goal to punch its national championship game ticket.

The second semifinal game goes more to plan as Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney bests his alma mater once again behind experienced Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and a loaded defense that forces new Alabama QB Ty Simpson into some unfavorable situations in the Peach Bowl. It would mark Clemson’s CFP national championship game appearance since a 2019 loss to LSU.

Championship: No. 4 Texas over No. 2 Clemson

Steve Sarkisian, Tre WisnerSteve Sarkisian, Quintrevion Wisner (Sara Diggins-American-Statesma/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

This will be a rematch of the 2024 first-round matchup between Clemson and Texas, which the Longhorns won handedly 38-25 in Austin last year. McElroy expects another similar result Jan. 19 inside Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. The former Alabama QB ends his segment by pointing out he has correctly predicted the last two CFP national champions in Michigan and Ohio State, and tells viewers to “mark it down” that Texas will end the 2025 season as champions.

“I’m just way too enamored with some of the star power that this Texas team has. Defensively, they have three guys that can rush the passer and take over the game. They have a guy (linebacker Anthony Hill Jr.) at the second level that can erase any big play,” McElroy said. “… I think the offensive line will gel. I’m a believer in Arch Manning. I think he’s got a chance to have a remarkedly great season. I love his personnel on the outside, I think their depth at running back and Steve Sarkisian’s ability to dial it up when he absolutely has to have a play will propel them over the top.”

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