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Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.

Thu, Aug 14, 2025, 12:53 PM 4 min read

Donald Trump looks down at a phone while visiting the Miami Grand Prix

Donald Trump looks down at a phone while visiting the Miami Grand PrixClive Mason/Getty Images
  • The firing of the BLS head by President Donald Trump has spooked some macro investors.

  • Trump's nomination of a partisan economist may push investors to rely more heavily on other data.

  • Sources like ADP, Homebase, and MIT's Billion Prices Project have become critical, traders say.

No savvy investor makes a decision off a single data point, but there are some numbers that carry more weight than others.

For many macro investors, the North Star has long been the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unit within the Department of Labor that measures, among other things, inflation, unemployment rates, and wage growth.

Those in charge of the BLS have long been non-partisan economists, but President Donald Trump's firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1 and his top pick for her replacement, chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni, have many concerned with the validity of future government data, especially as Antoni floated pausing monthly jobs reports.

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It's concerning for macro traders who rely on this data to make their bets, but there are non-governmental data sources that many already use. While helpful, these alternative databases can't replicate the widespread foundation BLS numbers provided for decades, where all market participants worked for the same set of basic facts about the state of the world's biggest economy. Still, traders are ramping up their use of this data in light of Trump's moves.

"What's going to be tricky here is how to judge numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics moving forward," said Andreas Steno Larsen, onetime macro investor and researcher, on his weekly podcast. He compared the firing to something that would happen "in Latin America" and predicted that investors would "look for alternative sources" to get a second opinion on the official data.

Four macro investors pointed to the well-known ADP jobs report, which comes out monthly and tracks payroll from private employers, and MIT's Billion Prices Project as ways to track employment and inflation, respectively, in the US. The investors declined to be named because their firms don't authorize them to speak publicly.

Some investors tap datasets that constantly scrape e-commerce prices, such as PriceStats, and track how different products rise and fall over time. This is a useful tool to understand Trump's tariff policies' impact, given the volume of online goods that US consumers buy from overseas.

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