FanDuel has released the betting lines and odds for the TCU football team’s season opener against North Carolina on Sept. 1. The Horned Frogs, who have won three of their last four openers, are currently 3.5-point favorites over Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels, with the current over-under set at 58.5 points. TCU, returning after finishing 9-4 during the 2024 season, is gearing up for its fourth season under Sonny Dykes, whereas North Carolina, who went 6-7, enters a new era under the NFL legend and Super Bowl champion Belichick.
Will the Horned Frogs cover the spread? Will the total score go over or under? Will TCU emerge with another win in a season opener? Below are Russell’s betting picks for the upcoming matchup against the Tar Heels. More lines and odds are available at https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf
Pick 1: TCU Moneyline (-154)
Of course I’m choosing the Horned Frogs to open the season 1-0. TCU bested an ACC foe last season, defeating Stanford 34-27 on the road, and I believe the Horned Frogs will get it done against Belichick and the Tar Heels on Sept. 1. TCU brings back multiple starters on an offense that averaged 33.5 points per game and well over 400 yards per game last season. Among those players is third-year starting quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Eric McAlister, who hauled in over 750 receiving yards in 2024. While the Horned Frogs are losing some starters in the secondary, including cornerbacks LaMareon James and JaTravis Broughton, TCU has plenty of depth at the position and welcomes back All-Big 12 Second Team safety Bud Clark. The Horned Frogs struggled against the run last season, but the Tar Heels lost starting running back Omarion Hampton to the NFL. Moreover, TCU has several underclassmen in Markis Deal, Zach Chapman and Travis Jackson primed for breakout seasons.
Pick 2: North Carolina +3.5 (-114)
I’m being conservative since it’s the first week of the season and there are many unknowns the Horned Frogs will encounter in this matchup. In 2023, Deion Sanders made his collegiate coaching debut against TCU and the hype of the game may have affected the Horned Frogs, who fell to the Buffaloes 45-42 in Fort Worth. Two years later, Belichick, another NFL legend, makes his collegiate coaching debut against TCU. While I believe the Horned Frogs come away with the victory, I expect this game to be closer than last year’s Stanford matchup, as North Carolina is a better team on paper and there will be plenty of hype in Chapel Hill as the Belichick era kicks off. North Carolina will also deploy a promising young quarterback in Gio Lopez, who arrives after throwing for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for seven touchdowns at South Alabama in 2024.
Pick 3: Under 58.5 points
TCU and North Carolina each averaged over 30 points per game on offense last season. However, both teams are losing key offensive starters (Jack Bech, Savion Williams and JP Richardson for the Horned Frogs and Omarion Hampton for the Tar Heels) from last season. TCU enters its second season under defensive coordinator Andy Avalos and boasts what should be a solid back seven headlined by linebackers Namdi Obiazor, Kaleb Elarms-Orr and safety Bud Clark. Given Belichick’s success with building championship-caliber defenses with the New England Patriots, I expect the Tar Heels to play better on that side of the ball, where they allowed over 28 points per game last season. Since it’s Week 1, I also expect both offenses to be working through some kinks.
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