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Fantasy Football: Regression is coming for these QBs — one way or another

By Matt Okada, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

In nearly every circumstance, touchdowns are the most volatile statistic to track. But, as we all know, they’re also the most crucial. In typical scoring, a quarterback can drive the entirety of the field, completing 10 passes for 98 yards along the way, and a single shovel pass for a touchdown from the goal line counts for more points than the prior 10 completions combined.

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But if touchdowns are so volatile and inconsistent, how will we ever find success predicting the year-to-year results? Through our old friend, Regression to the Mean. Put simply, the further a player is from their statistical average in a given sample, the more likely they are to regress back towards that average — whether positively or negatively — in successive samples. The average NFL-wide touchdown rate for qualified QBs in 2023 was 4.8%, and the average over the last decade is 4.6%. Over that same span, the data clearly shows that the further from the mean a quarterback strayed in a given season, the more drastic the correction appeared the following season.

Year-over-year TD Rate. (Photo by 4for4.com)

This helps quantify two things quite clearly: the vast majority of QBs to post a TD rate outside the median range will regress towards that range, and the most drastic outliers are usually followed by the most drastic corrections. So with all this math in mind, here are some quarterbacks we can predict for a noteworthy shift in touchdown production in the 2025 season.

Which quarterback will regress negatively in 2025?

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens:

Lamar Jackson TD stats. (Photo by 4for4.com)

It's never easy to tag Lamar Jackson as a "regressor," because he's just so consistently exceptional. However, after leading the NFL with an absurd 8.6% TD rate last season, it's a necessary consideration this fall. The last time Jackson posted a TD rate in this stratosphere — a 9.0% rate in his 2019 MVP season — he followed it with a "measly" 6.9% rate in 2020. While still well above league average, Jackson's drop in efficiency resulted in 10 fewer touchdown passes that season. Jackson also posted career bests in pass attempts (474) and interception rate (0.8%) last season, resulting in an absolutely monster fantasy output on the back of 41 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

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It doesn't matter what argument you present to argue Jackson can repeat — these numbers will not hold through 2025. No quarterback in the Super Bowl era has logged consecutive seasons with an 8%+ TD rate, and very few have even hit that mark twice in a full career (Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Ken Stabler). If I were a betting man (which I am), I'd say Jackson's 41 touchdown passes will remain a career high until the end of time. In fact, he's far more likely to post fewer than 30 TDs than he is to top 40 in 2025.

This is not to say you shouldn't draft him ... just don't expect him to finish as the QB1 by a margin of 50 fantasy points again.

Which quarterbacks will regress positively in 2025?

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears:

Caleb Williams TD stats. (photo by 4for4.com)

Caleb Williams might be the most popular fantasy football breakout candidate at the position in 2025. His coaching staff, offensive line and receiving corps have all improved over the past few months, and the former No. 1 pick is entering his second season after having his rookie year stunted by Matt Eberflus, Shane Waldron and a league-high 68 sacks (many of which were, admittedly, his fault). He'll enter year two with Ben Johnson on the sticks, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman shoring up the interior of his O-line and a wealth of target options led by DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift.

Plus, even beyond all the roster improvements, math is on Williams' side. Over the last decade, 24 quarterbacks have logged qualifying seasons in each of their first two years in the league, and 17 of them improved their TD rate in Year 2. The average improvement among the full sample is 0.7% (which would put Williams right at league average), but the numbers get even better if you narrow the sample to the six QBs in that sample who were drafted first overall. Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young increased their TD rates by an average of 1.3% from Year 1 to 2, with only Mayfield dipping as a sophomore (thanks to his exceptional rate as a rookie).

Year 2 No. 1 pick improvement. (Photo by 4for4.com)

With this data in mind, we can confidently project Williams for a TD rate right around league average in year two, with the potential to finish even higher, considering the situation around him. I'm not locking him in as a top-10 QB just yet, but the data suggests he should live up to his QB14 Yahoo ADP tag.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans:

C.J. Stroud TD stats. (Photo by 4for4.com)

After an incredible rookie season in which he threw 23 touchdowns on just 499 attempts, C.J. Stroud was a major disappointment as an NFL sophomore. We can look to the 52 sacks, the inconsistent health of his receiving corps and the questionable play-calling of OC Bobby Slowik (who has since been replaced by Sean McVay disciple Nick Caley). But ultimately, Stroud's dip from a 4.6% TD rate as a rookie to just 3.8% in 2024 tells most of the story — he threw three fewer touchdown passes on 33 more attempts in two additional games.

The Texans are committed to improving the situation around Stroud, making the move at OC and adding two wide receivers on Day 2 of the draft (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both out of Iowa State). They also heavily reworked the offensive line — whether for the better is yet to be seen — and traded for reliable slot receiver, Christian Kirk, who I see as one of the more underrated adds of the offseason (from an NFL standpoint).

While quite a few pieces of the 2025 puzzle in Houston remain somewhat volatile, history and mathematics tell us the talented Stroud should see a spike in touchdown rate in Year 3. And importantly, as of mid-June, he is being drafted as the QB18, an unbelievable discount that fully bakes in any uncertainty. At that draft price, I'm willing to bet on the positive regression and pick up Stroud as my QB2 with confidence.