Expert picks, best bets: How Sandhagen gets past Figueiredo at UFC Fight Night

Men's bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen looks to bounce back from his first loss since 2023 when he takes on former men's flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event at UFC Fight Night in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday night (10 ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Sandhagen, ESPN's No. 5-ranked bantamweight, enters the fight following a unanimous decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov at a UFC Fight Night last August. Before dropping that fight, he was riding a three-fight win streak that included victories over Song Yadong and Marlon "Chito" Vera. Figueiredo, ranked No. 6, is also coming off a loss. Petr Yan beat him by unanimous decision at a UFC Fight Night last November.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC men's bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw to get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on that fight and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Men's bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

TJ Dillashaw, former UFC men's bantamweight champion

How Sandhagen wins: I love Sandhagen, not only as an athlete but as a human. I had to fight him once, but we trained together years before that. He needs to keep this fight standing, using his creativity and angles. His big knees up the middle will be huge, given how much shorter Figureiredo is. He can't stand in front of Figueiredo and allow him to shoot takedowns. Sandhagen has a reach advantage, so don't overcommit and hit those pop shots, flashy feints, just keep it all unpredictable. Sandhagen's striking is so slick. He does a great job of switching stances and keeping his back off the cage.

How Figueiredo wins: Safely close the distance and stay away from Sandhagen's knees. Figueiredo has to set up his punches; he can't just shoot takedowns. He needs to put his hands on Cory first and make him believe in his power, because Figueiredo has power, even moving up in weight. Get Sandhagen to respect his power and then take him down. He needs to get the fight to the ground, for multiple reasons. I don't think he can keep up with Sandhagen's pace on the feet. But once Figueredo gets him down, his jiu-jitsu is second to none. He has great control and submissions, and that's a weakness that Cory has shown in previous fights.

X factor: For Sandhagen, it's his cardio and fight IQ. He works with Trevor Wittman now, and I'm sure they've come up with a great game plan. For Figueiredo, it's his jiu-jitsu. Cody Garbrandt is very hard to take down and keep down -- he's like a cat, he gets back up so quickly -- and Figueiredo managed to take him down and submit him.

Prediction: I lean Sandhagen here because of the cardio and the mindset. He is unbeatable when he's on top of his game, and I think he believes in himself right now.

Parker's betting analysis

Odds accurate as of May 1. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Sandhagen to win (-550); over 2.5 rounds. It feels like whoever loses this fight has seen their last opportunity to chase a UFC championship. Sandhagen is sitting as a near 5-to-1 favorite, and it makes sense. Outside of a fluke KO strike from Figueiredo, Sandhagen is better everywhere and knows how to stay out of trouble. Look for Sandhagen to utilize his volume striking and dictate the pace to get the win. If he is to finish Figueredo, I say it'll come in Rounds 4 or 5. However, to get the line down, let's take Sandhagen to win and over 2.5 rounds, making those bets the anchors of our parlay.

Best bets on the rest of the UFC card

Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder

Nickal to win (-340). Nickal asked for a step up in competition, and he's getting just that. De Ridder is coming off back-to-back submission wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, but I think the submission and win streaks come to an end here. As good as de Ridder has been in his two UFC fights and in his years with One Championship, where he was a two-division champ, there is a reason why Nickal is being treated as "that guy." Nickal may not have the technical striking of de Ridder, but he's technical enough to keep his opponent honest and he probably has the edge in speed and power. On top of that, Nickal's world-class wrestling -- he was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion -- will be too strong for de Ridder, and Nickal is defensively sound in the jiu-jitsu department, so I don't see him getting submitted. This feels like a Nickal decision victory, but to play it safe, let's take him to win on the moneyline and add him to our parlay.

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Ponzinibbio to win (-115). This should be a fun standup battle, with two UFC veterans putting on a show for the fans. I am surprised at the betting line, as I thought Ponzinibbio would be a bigger favorite, but at near coin-flip odds, I like this spot. Ponzinibbio is better everywhere the fight can go, and with Rodriguez having lost three of his past four and looking a bit slow in his last fight, I think Ponzinibbio adds another KO/TKO to his resume.