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Earnings Are Coming in Strong. Why Are Some Investors Antsy About It?

David Marino-Nachison

Mon, May 5, 2025, 12:35 PM 2 min read

Earnings have been strong. Not everyone’s happy about it.

Nearly three-quarters of S&P 500 companies had turned in first-quarter results through Friday, according to FactSet, which in a note last week said that earnings for the index as a whole are on track—based on a “blended” number that reflects numbers already reported and Wall Street’s expectations for those that remain—to rise nearly 13% year-over-year.

Still, some investors are wary. Investors have so far bid up shares of companies that have reported guidance better than the Street expected, according to Bank of America research, but companies have been rewarded less than is typical for stronger-than-expected results, and misses have been more harshly punished than in recent years.

The percentage of companies beating earnings estimates, meanwhile, is higher than the historical average, but that of sales beats is lower, Bank of America said.

Many companies are withdrawing forecasts entirely. One of the latest examples came today: engine maker Cummins (CMI), which cited uncertainty about the direction of Trump administration trade policy. (Other companies have taken another tack, offering up outlooks that take into account a range of economic scenarios.)

“Companies are getting nervous about the future—so much so that they’re pulling earnings forecasts in droves,” wrote Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, in a Monday email.

Even those that aren’t withdrawing forecasts are being cautious, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote last week, while observing that an above-average share of companies that have offered full-year guidance have kept previously issued numbers in place.

“We view this dynamic partly as a reflection of [companies’] hesitancy to shift guidance due to uncertainty around tariff policy,” they wrote. “For example, some companies noted in their earnings calls that their most recent guidance does not incorporate the impact of tariffs.”

That could spell trouble in the months ahead, especially if companies are spending now to get ahead of the effects of tariffs later.

“In our reading, a combination of pre-buying and inventory rundowns should give companies a buffer of about 1 to 2 months before the tariff impacts start to bite,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote last week. "If sustained, we see the potential impact of the announced tariffs as large and likely to fall disproportionately on US companies.”

The bulk of the Magnificent Seven's results are in, with only Nvidia's (NVDA) remaining. But plenty of closely watched reports are expected this week, among them numbers from Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Walt Disney (DIS) and Coinbase Global (COIN).