CrowdStrike Guidance On Key Metric Takes Center Stage At Investor Day

When CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) hosts an investor day on Wednesday, Wall Street analysts will look for updated guidance on a key financial metric and management views on rising competition. CrowdStrike stock has gained 30% in 2025 but has been retreating since early July.

The investor day coincides with the cybersecurity firm's Fal.con customer conference.

CrowdStrike's October quarter revenue guidance (Q3 of fiscal 2026) came in below expectations, amid the lingering impact of 2024's global IT outage on customer contract renewals. Wall Street analysts are focused on annual recurring revenue, or ARR. It's a key financial metric tied to subscription services growth.

CrowdStrike has predicted that net new ARR growth will reaccelerate to 40% or more in the second half of fiscal 2026.

"Given the intense focus by investors on the buildup of the 40% year-over-year net new ARR growth target we expect getting greater visibility into this breakdown to be the key for stock movement on the event (investor day)," said Morgan Stanley analyst Meta Marshall in a report.

At a recent Goldman Sachs conference, CrowdStrike Chief executive reiterated a goal of $10 billion in subscription-based ARR by fiscal 2031.

On the stock market today, CrowdStrike stock rose a fraction to near 447.95. CrowdStrike stock has pulled back from a 52-week high of 517.98 set on July 3.

Growth In Core Market Slowing

CrowdStrike competes with Palo Alto Networks (PANW), SentinelOne (S), Microsoft (MSFT) and others in the "endpoint" market. Endpoint security tools detect malware on laptops, mobile phones and other devices that access corporate networks.

The company is building a broad, threat-detection cybersecurity platform. It monitors endpoints as well as web/email gateways, web application firewalls and cloud business workloads.

"In the past year, the majority of the company's growth has been generated by cross-selling and up-selling new products to existing customers," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report. "Although newer modules continue to scale, their strong performance is being offset by slower growth in core endpoint. We view this deceleration as a potential overhang on the long-term growth narrative and ability to sustain the premium valuation (of CrowdStrike stock)."

CrowdStrike has been pushing into the identity security market, where is competes with CyberArk (CYBR), Okta (OKTA) and others. Some analysts are looking for a management update on market traction in identity security. Palo Alto Networks has agreed to buy Cyberark.

CrowdStrike Stock Technical Ratings

CrowdStrike in July acquired Onum Security, a provider of real-time telemetry management. On Tuesday, CrowdStrike announced the acquisition of AI security firm Pangea Cyber for $260 million.

Also, CrowdStrike stock holds a Composite Rating of 83 out of a best-possible 99, according to IBD Stock Checkup.

Meanwhile, CrowdStrike stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of D-minus. That rating analyzes price and volume changes in a stock over the past 13 weeks of trading. (A+ signifies heavy institutional buying; E means heavy selling. Think of a C grade as neutral.)

Further, the Computer Software-Security group ranks No. 121 out of 197 industry groups that IBD tracks.

Follow Reinhardt Krause on Twitter @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.

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