Congress-INDIA will win in both Maharashtra & Jharkhand, but BJP may come to power via defections: Swaminathan Aiyar

Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ET Now, says the BJP's disadvantage in Maharashtra is that both its two partners are not grassroots parties, they are defectors' parties. Defectors' parties do not go down well with voters or do not go down nearly as well with voters as the grassroots parties. So, I would say that the two parent parties, National Congress Party and Shiv Sena, the Uddhav Thackeray ones, are the grassroots ones. I personally think that the Congress- Uddhav Thackeray coalition has an edge. BJP-NDA will narrowly lose in both the states, but can manage to come to power with defections.

How are you looking at the latest developments and the data points that have come out on Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections?
Swaminathan Aiyar: The first fair warning to everybody is that exit polls are constantly wrong. Once in the blue moon, they are right. I mean, nothing is ever always wrong. But the record of exit polls is so poor that I would say exit polls are not something that inform, they entertain. It is an occasion for gup-shup (chit-chat) that maybe it is going this way or that way.

In Haryana, the exit polls were predicting a big victory for Congress, it was just the other way around. The BJP had a stunning victory. So, let us see. We have different exit polls having different predictions. The bulk of them in Maharashtra seem to think that the BJP-Shinde coalition will get through and that the Uddhav Thackeray and Congress coalition will lose. But there are some others who think that Congress may in fact win.

In the case of Jharkhand, it looks much more neck and neck. But I would say that the margin is such that let us not jump to conclusions. The exit polls have not made us any wiser, that is all I will say. Either side could win. It would appear that right now, maybe the BJP and the coalition has a slightly better chance in Maharashtra, but I would not bet on it. I would say hold your money back until we get the results. The margins are too close and the exit polls too unreliable to jump to any conclusions.

But let us do the gup-shup on this and let us figure out what the industry as well as markets are going to react to whatever may be the outcome on Saturday. Do you think a return of the BJP-led alliance would hint at policy continuity and there is not going to be any stalling of development and the ongoing projects right now in the state?
Swaminathan Aiyar: I do not think that the change of government means that all kinds of projects get stalled. Yes, some sweetheart projects which will get stalled, which always happens when there is transfer of power. But otherwise it is quite normal in a democracy to have a change of governments and it does not mean that there are major adverse consequences. It did not happen in the past when Congress was in power and the BJP or Shiv Sena came to power. It did not mean that there was any kind of collapse. There is enough continuity in the system for things to continue. So, that is not a key issue.

But let us see. To me, the BJP's disadvantage is that both its two partners are not grassroots parties, they are defectors' parties. Defectors' parties do not go down well with voters or do not go down nearly as well with voters as the grassroots parties. So, I would say that the two parent parties, National Congress Party and Shiv Sena, the Uddhav Thackeray ones, are the grassroots ones. I personally think that the Congress- Uddhav Thackeray coalition has an edge. But let us wait and see. We will soon know.

Given that you were saying that exit polls are nothing to really go by and given that the predictions this time is that it is going to be a close contest, what is it that you are working with or what is your opinion?
Swaminathan Aiyar: No, as in my opinion, I have a feeling that the Congress-India bloc will win in both the states. I think the BJP-NDA will narrowly lose in both the states, that is my personal feeling. Of course, we have the situation where the BJP often loses an election, but then forms the government because it is able to get defectors. So, do not rule out that as an outcome, although that would not be an immediate outcome, that would be an outcome with a lag. I say that, while I do think that BJP is at a disadvantage electorally, I would not rule out it is managing to come to power with defections.

Like you said, that it is the grassroots government which should win and would be perhaps in the betterment of the voters and many believe that if indeed it is a Congress-led party, at least in Maharashtra, that will be more rural-focused and would try and sort of kick in the rural upliftment.
Swaminathan Aiyar: It would be Uddhav Thackeray-led. It would not be Congress-led. I think it is worth emphasising that. The lead, the more important person is Uddhav Thackeray. Yes, the Congress will also be an important coalition partner, but I have no doubt that if they come to power, it would be Uddhav Thackeray who will be the chief minister and not any Congress candidate. So, it would be Uddhav Thackeray-led.

As for the Congress wanting to have various welfare things, Eknath Shinde has also tried to have some women's programmes, additional giveaways of various kinds. Everybody is in this particular battle for giveaways. I would not say one party is very far ahead of any other parties. The Indian system being what it is, it does not matter who wins. On economic policy, I expect continuity. There will be a certain amount of populist play to the gallery, but I think the focus in Maharashtra always has been construction and industry. I think that is where the action will continue to be.