College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 4 matchups

Week 4 features three ranked matchups that will help shape the College Football Playoff race heading toward the final week of September. 

No. 17 Texas Tech travels to No. 16 Utah in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams at 12 p.m. ET on Fox. No. 12 Iowa State is on a bye week, and the winner here could be the highest-ranked team in the conference. 

No. 22 Auburn travels to No. 11 Oklahoma in the crowded SEC race. The Tigers and Sooners will be the highlight of the 3:30 p.m. ET window on ABC. No. 9 Illinois faces No. 19 Indiana in the Big Ten at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Hoosiers are trying to kick-start a second straight CFP run, while The Illini are trying to validate their top-10 ranking. 

Each week, we pick games against the spread for AP Top 25 teams. Here is a look at our record involving AP Top 25 teams heading into Week 4. (Odds according to Caesars)

Straight up: 37-12 (16-3 in Week 2) 

Against the spread: 22-26-1 (10-9 in Week 2) 

Week 4 picks against the spread 

Saturday, Sept. 20

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (-3.5) (12 p.m., Fox) 

Utah is home and has a chance to establish itself as the Big 12 favorite. Texas Tech QB Behren Morton leads the Big 12 with a 208.4 passer rating, but the Utes are a significant step up in competition. Dual-threat New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier has seven TDs and no interceptions and he averages 6.0 yards per carry. This is a contrast-in-styles matchup in the first meeting since 1973. 

Pick: Utah wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread. 

UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (-38) (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) 

This comes down to how much of an emotional hangover Tennessee suffered in the loss to Georgia. The Blazers allowed 36 points per game to Alabama State, Navy and Akron. The Volunteers could put up a huge number here, but keep an eye on UAB's Jalen Kitna, who has a 70% completion percentage through three games. 

Pick: Tennessee wins 56-14 and COVERS the spread. 

Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (-35.5) (3 p.m., TBD) 

Dan Lanning is 2-0 S/U against Oregon State, and the Ducks have won the last two meetings by an average of 29.5 points per game. The Beavers are 0-3 and have allowed 38.3 points per game. Yes, it's a rivalry game, but Oregon will turn up the offense ahead of the showdown with No. 2 Penn State in Week 5. 

Pick: Oregon wins 52-10 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (-6.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC) 

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold gets a shot at his former team. The Tigers beat the Sooners 27-21 last season. Arnold has taken six sacks through three games, and Oklahoma will dial up the pressure here. Can Auburn score its second road victory against a Power 4 school under Hugh Freeze? 

Pick: Oklahoma wins 28-25 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

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Kent State at No. 7 Florida State (-43.5) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network) 

Florida State averages 54 points per game and had an early bye week – and the offense, and the Golden Flashes rank 116th in scoring defense. Kent State did score two late TDs to back-door cover against Texas Tech in Week 2 – but they also allowed 601 yards in that game. Florida State will make another statement ahead of ACC play. 

Pick: Florida State wins 55-7 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 21 Michigan (-1.5) at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

A battle of five-star quarterbacks who show major potential and also make mistakes. Bryce Underwood gets a do-over on the road against Nebraska after compiling 235 passing yards, 114 yards and three TDs in Week 3. Dylan Raiola has 829 passing yards, eight TDs and no interceptions through three games. This is a program-moving opportunity for Matt Rhule. The Wolverines have won the last two meetings in Lincoln. 

Pick: Michigan wins 31-26 and COVERS the spread. 

Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (-12.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss had a fantastic debut in place of Austin Simmons (ankle). The Rebels beat the Green Wave 37-20 in the last meeting in 2023. This is Tulane's chance to make a statement for the American Conference and CFP committee. The Green Wave are 0-3 S/U as an underdog against Jon Sumrall, who will be a trendy name as HC openings arise this offseason.

Pick: Ole Miss 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (-26.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC) 

Notre Dame beat Purdue 66-7 last season, but how will the Irish respond to an 0-2 start? Barry Odom has the Boilermakers competing, and this is a rivalry game. Jeremiyah Love will bust loose for a huge game here, but Purdue might put up a couple scores, too.  

Pick: Notre Dame wins 42-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (-24) (4 p.m., The CW) 

How do the Yellow Jackets handle success? Georgia Tech will have success in the running game against a Temple defense that allowed 287 rushing yards against Oklahoma in Week 3. The Yellow Jackets aren't a run-it-up type team, however, so this line could be tricky if Temple can get an early TD. Georgia Tech is 5-1-1 ATS as the home team under Brent Key. 

Pick: Georgia Tech wins 41-10 and COVERS the spread. 

South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (-13.5) (7 p.m., ESPN) 

It's tough to pick this game without knowing whether LaNorris Sellers (concussion) will play. The Gamecocks might have to turn to sixth-year senior Luke Doty on the road. Can South Carolina slow down Ahmed Hardy, who ranks second in the FBS with 462 rushing yards? Missouri has won the last three home meetings in the series, but the Gamecocks will not have five turnovers again. 

Pick: Missouri wins 29-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

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Florida at No. 4 Miami (-7.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC) 

Florida's brutal schedule continues with a rivalry game at Miami. The Gators have allowed 20 points or less in their first three games, but to go from Death Valley to Miami? DJ Lagway will have to play much cleaner, and Miami quarterback Carson Beck is familiar with the rivalry with Florida. He is 2-0 as a starter against the Gators. 

Pick: Miami wins 31-22 and COVERS the spread. 

Georgia State at No. 20 Vanderbilt (-26.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPNU) 

Georgia State upset Vanderbilt 36-32 last year – and that no doubt will be a point of emphasis for Clark Lea with the Commodores in the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt is allowing 10 points per game this year, and Diego Pavia continues to lead that offense. TJ Finley – who is on his sixth school – will make a few plays for Georgia State. Can you name all six schools? 

Pick: Vanderbilt wins 38-13 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-4.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock) 

The Big Ten prime-time game of the week between playoff hopefuls. Indiana is a home underdog – which should get Curt Cignetti fired up. Illinois should have some success running the football with , but the Hoosiers have an elite pass defense through three weeks. Fernando Mendoza (9 TDs, 0 INTs) and Luke Altmyer (8 TDs, 0 INTs) have been masterful. The Hoosiers average 307.7 rushing yards per game. Can the Illini's nasty defense slow that down? The Illini are 4-4 S/U and 6-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2023, and the last two meetings have been three-point games. 

Pick: Illinois wins 28-24 in an UPSET. 

Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (-41) (8 p.m., ESPN+) 

Texas has failed to cover 30-plus spreads each of the last two weeks – and we've missed both times. Why go back to the well? Sam Houston allows 38.7 points and 315 passing yards per game. This is the week Arch Manning goes off – and the Longhorns show they are ready for the SEC grind. 

Pick: Texas wins 49-7 and COVERS the spread. 

Michigan State at No. 25 USC (-16) (11 p.m., Fox) 

The Trojans are second in the FBS with 55 points per game, and Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten with 329.7 yards per game. The Spartans are 2-2-1 ATS as a road underdog, and the two-time zone factor is in play. Will the Spartans be prepared for that environment? USC has a +5 turnover ratio, so Aidan Chiles must protect the football. 

Pick: USC wins 38-23 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

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