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College football betting, lines, odds: Michigan, Miami and Texas Tech have big games this week. Are there any actionable edges?

Looking for sharp college football betting information through numbers and analysis?

The Power Rank college football model comes from my background (Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. From 2022-24, the model went 52.6% against the opening market (907-816 with 29 pushes in games in which predictions differed from the market by a point or more).

In addition to the model, I research subjective factors that the model doesn’t consider to make long-term profitable bets. Here are my best numbers and analysis on five key games for Week 4.

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-4.5, 52.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Indiana by 8.1 points

Of these two Big Ten teams, only Illinois has played a challenging game, as it traveled to Duke in Week 2. Illinois scored a decisive 45-19 win, but the scoreboard was deceiving. Duke had more yards (438 to 432) and higher yards per play (6.95 to 6.13), but five turnovers to zero for Illinois.

Illinois and Indiana have closed as at least 23-point favorites in the other five total games both teams have played. Neither team has deviated much from its preseason rating in my college football model.

Illinois most likely came into the season overrated. It had a 10-3 record in 2024 with the help of a 5-1 record in one-score games. However, win percentage in one-score games regresses to .500 from season to season. QB Luke Altmyer returns, but the team lost top RB Josh McCray to Georgia and top WR Pat Bryant to the third round of the NFL Draft.

Indiana had an 11-2 record to make the College Football Playoff in 2024. It lost QB Kurtis Rourke to the seventh round of the NFL Draft. However, transfer QB Fernando Mendoza from California could go as high as the first round of the next NFL Draft, according to some scouts. Indiana also returns a number of players from last year’s playoff team who are projected to get drafted: WR Elijah Sarratt, DE Mikail Kamara and CB D’Angelo Ponds. Right now, it doesn’t seem like Illinois has these types of high end players.

In addition, Illinois had a number of top players like RB Aidan Laughery, LB Daniel Brown and LB Dylan Rosiek who didn’t play last week and are listed as questionable for this game.

Bet: Indiana -4.5.

Texas Tech running back J'Koby Williams (20) scores a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Oregon State, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025, in Lubbock, Texas. (AP Photo/Annie Rice)

No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (-3, 57.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Utah by 4.9 points

Over the past two seasons, Utah has fielded a fierce defense under coach Kyle Whittingham. However, the offense hasn’t been as good, as injuries to players like Cam Rising have hindered quarterback play.

This season, Utah seems to have found the answer at QB in New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier. The team has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games this season. In my adjusted yards-per-pass attempt, the Dampier-led offense ranks 15th in the nation.

Texas Tech bought a new roster this off season, as oil men like Cody Campbell poured money into the program to win a Big 12 championship. Against lesser competition, Texas Tech has won three games by at least 31 points.

The money has paid off so far, as edge rushers Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and David Bailey (Stanford) have a combined for four sacks and 30 pressures (PFF).

This game features the top two Big 12 teams in my member college football rankings, so the outcome will go a long way in determining the conference champion.

Bet: Lean Utah -3

No. 21 Michigan (-2.5, 50.5) at Nebraska

The Power Rank prediction: Michigan by 1.4 points

Matt Rhule has worked miracles at his first two college football head coaching stops. Temple and Baylor both exploded in his third year as head coach. Now, after a 12-13 record in his first two seasons, Rhule is 3-0 in his third season.

Let’s not make too much of this record, as a road win over Cincinnati is the only game worth noting. Nebraska needs second-year QB Dylan Raiola to make a jump as a highly touted recruit and to establish a connection with receiver Dane Key, a transfer from Kentucky.

After two awful games to start the season, Michigan thumped Central Michigan last week. Head coach Sherrone Moore wasn’t on the sideline because he was serving a suspension over the 2023 Michigan sign-stealing scandal.

Highly recruited QB Bryce Underwood finally showed his running ability last week with 114 rushing yards on nine scrambles. His running should help an offense that has relied on explosive plays from RB Justice Haynes in the first two games.

Michigan will potentially get back S Rod Moore, who played a pivotal role on the 2023 national championship team. However, my model might still have Michigan overrated due a weak group of pass catchers.

Bet: Lean Nebraska +2.5

Florida at No. 4 Miami (-7.5, 51.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Miami by 6.5 points

Florida needed a win at LSU last week after getting upset by South Florida. Instead, QB DJ Lagway threw five interceptions in a 20-10 loss. Despite his poor performance this season, Lagway remains the starter for Florida.

Miami opened the season with a big win over Notre Dame and then stomped South Florida last week. In a small sample size, the defense seems much improved. In my yards per play adjusted for schedule, Miami’s defense ranks 13th in a small sample size, an improvement from 45th from last season.

A single-digit spread seems small for two programs headed in opposite directions, but my numbers agree with the market. Florida has the talent to make this a game.

Bet: Pass

UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (-39.5, 69.5)

The Power Rank prediction: Tennessee by 34.8 points

Tennessee lost a heartbreakinger at home to Georgia last week. However, QB Joey Aguilar had an outstanding game, throwing for 371 yards on 9.76 yards per pass attempt. At times, Tennessee’s pass offense seemed unstoppable against Georgia.

Georgia’s defense could be bad, but its program history suggests otherwise.

Tennessee might have won that game if either of its starting cornerbacks from last season — Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III — had played. Both missed the game due to injury, and Georgia was able to attack the outside. I’ll be looking at the injury report each week to see when these stars will be back in the line up so I can back Tennessee.

There is no world in which I want to bet against Tennessee despite what my numbers say.