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Canada’s Liberal party secures election victory after reversal of fortune for Mark Carney

Canada’s Liberal party has won a fourth term, capping a miraculous political resurrection for the party – and marking a landmark victory for former central bankerand political novice Mark Carney as he prepares to face off against US president Donald Trump.

Late on Monday, the Liberals had won or were leading in enough seats to prevent any other party from forming government, according to the national broadcaster CBC. As results from Canada’s Atlantic provinces and vote-rich Quebec and Ontario came in late on Monday, supporters at the Liberals’ election night party erupted in cheers.

It was not immediately clear if the Liberals will have enough seats for a majority government. A minority government would means Carney’s party will need the support of political opponents to govern. After a narrow victory at the previous federal election, the Liberals relied on the leftwing New Democratic party to help it pass legislation.

For the Liberals, the win marks a remarkable recovery for a party that was, until recently, on track for electoral devastation. Carney’s predecessor Justin Trudeau served as prime minister for nearly 10 years, but the twilight of his leadership was marked by repeated threats of mutiny, bitter feuding and a fed-up electorate.

As recently as late December, internal discussions within the Liberal party were grim: under their most optimistic scenarios, they could only hope of holding Conservatives to a minority government. Outright victory was nowhere on their party’s radar.

Carney’s ability to shepherd the party to a win reflects the reality of just how sharply public sentiment can shift. With Canada’s economic future seemingly in the hands of an unpredictable and hostile US president, Trump’s threats to annex the country to make it the 51st state, his belittling of Trudeau as “governor” and threats of economic coercion have all contributed to a sharp feeling of anger and betrayal towards Canada’s southern neighbour.

“The shift in polls was absolutely without precedent,” said David Coletto, head of the polling firm Abacus. ”But to see the honeymoon that followed – and the way that support held, is also unprecedented. I can’t think of like other jurisdictions around the world, where we’ve seen this kind of just complete reset. And this turns on two factors: how unpopular Justin Trudeau was, and how much of a threat and gamechanger Donald Trump has meant to Canada.”