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💰 Betting the Belmont Stakes: Tips and more

Katherine Terrell and Anita Marks

Jun 6, 2025, 04:28 PM ET

It looks like a three-horse race in the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

The Belmont Stakes will feature a rare Triple Crown rematch of this year's Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will take on Preakness winner Journalism after Sovereignty's trainer elected to skip the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago. Baeza, who ran third in the Kentucky Derby and also skipped the Preakness, will be back for another try against both horses.

Only eight horses are entered in the race, which will be run at 1 1/4th miles at Saratoga Race Course. This is the second straight year the race will be run at Saratoga at a shorter distance. Belmont Park, which has hosted almost every edition of the race since 1905, is currently undergoing renovations.

While the main focus will be on the 1-2-3 finishers of the Kentucky Derby, Rodriguez, a newcomer to the Triple Crown rail, will also draw some attention.

Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith, Rodriguez was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to a foot issue. Baffert told the Daily Racing Form that he also bypassed the Preakness because Rodriguez needed more prep time after the issue was resolved.

If either Journalism or Sovereignty wins, there will be an opportunity for a Kentucky Derby and Belmont double, or Preakness and Belmont double. Eleven horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, while 18 horses have won the Preakness and Belmont, the last horse being Afleet Alex, who came in third in the 2005 Kentucky Derby but then won the next two races.

Betting the Belmont

by Katherine Terrell

A small field and a heavy favorite like Journalism won't provide a great return, so the main focus of this betting strategy will be to look for value, if that's possible. Journalism certainly seems like the horse to beat in this field, although he is the only horse who will run three races in five weeks.

None of the top three are going to provide great odds, and it's likely that Journalism or Baeza will go off as the favorite, depending on what bettors believe. Some might believe that Journalism is the true class of the field and will win no matter what, while others might see Baeza as an ascending talent who will only get better in his sixth start (and is more rested than Journalism, who has now finished ahead of him twice).

There's also the Sovereignty factor: Was his win over Journalism in the Kentucky Derby a result of their respective trips, or is he truly the best of the three? Will he have enough pace in this field to close into this race?

The likely winner: Journalism. Value and rest are the reasons to bet against him, but if the Preakness convinced you, put a large bet on him to win again.

The slightly better odds bet: Put Baeza or Sovereignty on top of Journalism in exactas, with Rodriguez and Hill Road filling out trifecta bets.

Long shot bet: Rodriguez. Journalism was clearly the best over Rodriguez in March, when Rodriguez finished third behind him in the San Felipe Stakes. But if you're looking for a contender with any kind of price, keep in mind that Baffert and Smith have both won the Belmont Stakes three times (once together when Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018).

Belmont notes and favorite plays

By Anita Marks

The third leg of horse racing's Triple Crown has arrived. No horse will be able to claim all three wins this year, but there are still some great storylines heading into Saturday. Let's dive in.

For the second year in a row, the Belmont will be run at a distance of 1 1/4 miles as opposed to the traditional 1 1/2-mile trip. Saratoga will once again be the site of the race with Belmont Park still undergoing renovations. With very little speed in this race and only one legit closer, the shorter distance makes handicapping more difficult.
The two powerhouses meet again! Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby but did not race in the Preakness in an effort to prioritize long-term health and prepare for the Belmont Stakes. He has had five weeks off to lock and reload for the last leg. Journalism won the Preakness and will now be running his third race in five weeks. How much gas does he have left in his tank?
Could Baeza pull off the upset? He finished third in the Kentucky Derby and was runner-up to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Baeza's dam, Puca, also produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and the 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. The pedigree is there for Baeza to make history; it would be the third consecutive year an offspring of the same dam won a Triple Crown race.
The speed in the race centers around two horses: Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial, and Crudo, a Todd Pletcher horse and the son of Justify who has the speed to go wire to wire. Rodriguez was scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to a foot injury and was not healthy enough to race in the Preakness. This is a Bob Baffert horse, and it will be the owner's fourth try at capturing his fourth Belmont Stakes.
Hill Road is the best closer in this race. Trained by Chad Brown, Hill Road will have Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the best jockeys in the world, on his back. Hill Road loves this distance and has potential to pull the upset.
Heart of Honor will be pulling on fans' heart strings! The colt is handled by the father-daughter combination of trainer Jamie Osborne and jockey Saffie Osborne. If Saffie wins, she will become only the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes. The first was Julie Krone in 1993 on Colonial Affair.